The 2024 Paris Olympics continues at Roland Garros with Stefanos Tsitsipas up against Sebastian Baez while Casper Rudd faces Francesco Cerundolo. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 Olympic Games
Paris Olympics
Roland Garros
Selected 3rd round matches 31 July
Stefanos Tsitsipas 27/100 | Sebastian Baez 26/10
This has been a slightly bittersweet week for Tsitsipas. He and brother Petros were eliminated in the first round of the doubles event. And his powerhouse mixed doubles partnership with Maria Sakkari suffered the same fate yesterday.
But he has successfully navigated his way into the final 16 of the singles and he will be feeling really confident of getting himself into a medal position.
He was a bit wobbly in his opener, requiring three sets to down a plucky Bergs. But he looked back to his best against a totally outclassed Dan Evans, needing just 57 minutes to win 6-1, 6-2. It was an exceptional display of clay-court shot-making that included 24 winners and just nine unforced errors.
Tsitsipas has been one of the most consistent clay-court players for some time, reaching the quarterfinal stage or better at the French Open in four of the last five seasons (finishing runner-up in 2021). He won his 3rd Monte-Carlos Masters earlier this season and also finished runner-up in Barcelona.
Sebastian Baez has really carved a nice little niche for himself over the last few years. The 23-year-old Argentine first caught the eye on the Challenger circuit, winning an incredible six clay-court titles in 2021. A prototypical clay-court specialist, Baez has reached a host of minor finals over the last few years. In fact, he has managed to reach eight finals since 2022 (seven of which came on clay).
He has managed to become a bit of a giant in the ‘minor’ clay-court universe, repeatedly collecting rankings points during the Golden Swing and lesser European clay-court events.
He was particularly impressive during this year’s Golden Swing, winning back-to-back titles in Rio and Chile (the Rio title being his maiden ATP 500 win). But he has never gone beyond the fourth round of a Masters 1000 event and was eliminated in the second round of this year’s French Open.
Can he truly elevate his performance on the biggest stage? He eased past Monterio in his opener but he absolutely struggled against Benjamin Hassan in his 2nd round match, needing a third-set tiebreak to sneak past the Lebanese underdog.
The Verdict: Tsitsipas to win in three at 26/10
Tsitsipas leads the head-to-head 2-0, winning their most recent meeting in Madrid last year. Baez won a set in both of those matches and that leads me to believe he is capable of nicking one here.
Baez is a true clay-court creature, using his excellent movement and strong forehand to wear opponents down. Tsitsipas has shown vulnerability against grinders before and this could be tighter than it looks on paper. Still, the Greek should be able to clinch the match in three.
Casper Rudd 7/20 Francesco Cerundolo 43/20
Casper Rudd was one of my pre-tournament favourites and he repaid that faith with a comfortable first-round win over Taro Daniel. But he stumbled in his second round match, needing to come from a set down to beat Vavassori.
The Norwegian has been one of the premier clay-court operators for the past few seasons and this year has proved no exception. Three of his five finals this year have come on clay (including his runner-up finish in Monte-Carlo).
Both of his title wins have come on the sticky stuff (in Barcelona and Geneva). The two-time French Open runner-up once again demonstrated his Roland Garros expertise with an excellent semifinal run at the French Open. Rudd’s relentless forehand and amazing court coverage have helped him become a serial contender at Roland Garros.
Another match, another bona fide clay-court specialist. 25-year-old Argentine Francesco Cerundolo lacked for consistency in the early portion of the season but he started to come into his own on the clay, reaching the quarterfinals in Rio before a creditable quarterfinal run in Madrid.
He then reached the French Open fourth round for the second successive year, beating Tommy Paul before pushing Djokovic to five sets in his round of 16 match.
And he arrived at these games in high spirits after winning last week’s Umag title (beating red-hot Lorenzo Musetti in the final). He has looked typically energetic in Paris, cruising past Barrios Vera in his opener before a hard-fought three-set win against big-serving Ugo Humbert.
A brilliant clay-court mover, Cerundolo has the ability to change the direction of the ball very late, creating wonderful little crosscourt angles. He also has a wicked drop-shot that makes him a hard guy to predict.
The Verdict: Rudd to win in straight sets at 94/100
The Argentine surprisingly leads the head-to-head 3-2 (actually holding a 2-1 advantage in their clay-court meetings). But they have never met at Roland Garros and I think Rudd will bounce back after what was a fairly pedestrian performance against Vavassori.
