Leylah Fernandez 12/10 | Karolina Muchova 13/20
The fact that Leylah Fernandez is seeded 16th for this event tells you everything you need to know about the women not in attendance this year. 2021 US Open runner-up Leylah Fernandez has managed to sneak her way into the seedings this year (though this isn’t exactly the ‘reward’ she will have been hoping for).
Fernandez has underachieved since that awe-inspiring New York run (though not to the same extent as eventual champion Emma Radacanu). Still, she did manage to win minor titles in 2022 and 2023.
But she struggled earlier this season and it looked as if she might be in for another mediocre campaign. But she surprisingly burst into life on the grass-court swing, reaching the quarters in Birmingham before a first-ever WTA 500 final in Eastbourne (she lost to Kasatkina in the final).
This will be her first appearance since Wimbledon and she should feel quite confident after turning her form around on grass (her least preferred surface). She reached the French Open quarterfinals back in 2022 and her grit and versatility make her a formidable opponent on these surfaces.
This could be a massive week for 27-year-old Karolina Muchova. The Czech star enjoyed a fabulous 2023 campaign, culminating in her qualifying for the season-ending WTA Tour finals.
She was brilliant at Grand Slam level, reaching the semifinals of the US Open and memorably finishing runner-up at the French. She was electrifying here last season, taking down Sabalenka in the semis before pushing clay-court demigoddess Iga Swiatek to three sets in the final.
The aggressive Muchova has proven to be an adroit clay-court operator, with three of her five career finals coming on the sticky stuff. But she has always been susceptible to injuries and she was forced to withdraw from last year’s WTA Finals due to a wrist issue.
She had surgery on that wrist in February, only returning to action at the Eastbourne Invitational. And she has really hit the ground running since her return, reaching the quarterfinals in Eastbourne before finishing runner-up at last week’s Palermo Ladies Open. She has a dynamic style that blends brutish power with a wonderful touch (her drop-shot was key to her Roland Garros success last year).
The Verdict: Muchova to win in straight sets 27/20
Muchova leads the head-to-head 1-0, taking down the Canadian at the 2022 Miami Open. I think that Muchova’s greater firepower will be key to victory.
Fernandez has a powerful forehand that can be quite destructive when she’s in the mood. But Muchova is a more venomous ball-striker and her use of the drop-shot just gives her an added dimension.