Clay isn’t exactly Vekic’s wheelhouse (a point that I made in my Kostyuk-Vekic preview). She has never progressed beyond the 4th round of the French Open and she is yet to reach a WTA final on the sticky stuff.
But Vekic – like Collins a few months ago – is currently in the form of her life and surfaces aren’t as big of a factor. That win over Kostyuk took her to 13-2 in her last three tournaments.
She finished runner-up at the Bad Homburg Open before that heartbreaking semifinal run at SW19. And now she stands on the precipice of an Olympic medal.
She will be hoping for that serve to improve in the later stages of this tournament. She did look quite comfortable at the net against Kostyuk, winning 70% of the points when she entered the forecourt.
A.K. Schmiedlova
These Olympics do have a habit of throwing in one crazy medallist (who can forget Monica Puig’s unreal gold medal run in 2016). 29-year-old Slovak A.K. Schmiedlova is certainly this year’s surprise package (on either side of the draw).
The journeywoman pro has survived a nightmarish draw, defeating Paolini and Krejcikova in her last two matches. And she looked extremely solid in her quarterfinal clash with Barbora Krejcikova, bringing the Wimbledon champion’s unbeaten streak to a screeching halt.
She hit 16 winners to just 15 unforced errors, playing percentage tennis against the two-time slam winner. She doesn’t have the most formidable serve in the world (in fact, she had a higher win percentage on her second serve points than on her first). But she was a constant threat on return, pouncing on the Czech’s 2nd deliveries.
This result hasn’t exactly come out of nowhere. The Slovak reached a career-high ranking of 26 back in 2015. A prototypical clay-court counterpuncher, Schmiedlova has actually produced a number of encouraging results this campaign.
She reached the semifinals in Austin before claiming a WTA 125 event in Parma. She was unable to defend her 4th round French Open points from last year, disappointingly losing to qualifier Sara Errani in the first round.
But she came into some form on the eve of this event, reaching the semifinals at the WTA 250 event in Budapest. But few could have possibly envisaged this type of run. Her third-round win against Paolini really typified the Slovak. She basically just put the match on Paolini’s racquet in the decider, relentlessly putting the ball back into play for the Italian to make errors.
The Verdict: Vekic to win in straight sets 21/20
Vekic absolutely dominated their only previous meeting, trashing the Slovak 6-0, 6-1 at the 2018 Luxembourg Open. This just feels like Vekic’s time. I’m not saying that she is going to take down Swiatek to eventually win gold.
But I find it hard to see Vekic leaving these games without a medal of some kind. She seems to have worked through that Wimbledon heartbreak and showed nerves of steel to come through that Kostyuk test.
She will be the one taking the initiative in this match and she will need to remain patient in crucial moments. I just think she is hitting it too cleanly for the Slovak to rely on her imploding.