Both teams have played some eye-catching rugby this year and we could well be in for a very open contest.
Toulouse v La Rochelle
Saturday 26 June
Stade de France
20:45
To Win (80 Mins)
Toulouse 12/10
Draw 18/1
La Rochelle 15/20
Handicap
Toulouse (+1.5) 9/10
La Rochelle (-1.5) 9/10
Toulouse
The reigning champions head into this one as slight underdogs with the bookmakers mainly due to the fact that they may well be without star pivot Romain Ntamack who suffered what looked to be a serious concussion during last weekend’s 24-21 hard-fought semi-final victory over the Bordeaux Begles.
Another factor weighing on the oddsmaker’s decision to price Toulouse up at just over even money is that they were far from impressive last weekend. Having been a man up for the final quarter of the game – Ntamack’s concussion came as a result of a late tackle from Bordeaux centre Ulupano Seuteni, who was shown his marching orders for the offence – Toulouse didn’t really take full advantage of their numerical superiority as they stuttered to a three-point win. While I understand a win is a win, when it comes to knock-out rugby, you would have expected a side of Toulouse’s quality to take advantage of being a man to the good.
Another worry for Toulouse – and South African fans going into the Lions series into this one – is the form of Springbok winger Cheslin Kolbe. The pocket rocket is experiencing a severe try-scoring drought having not crossed the whitewash for more than ten games.
La Rochelle
While Toulouse scraped to a victory over Bordeaux, La Rochelle swept aside Racing 92 19-6 to book passage to the Top 14 final. It was an assured performance from the side that finished in second on the log; only three points adrift of their opponents for the weekend, Toulouse.
La Rochelle will have a massive point to prove here having gone down 17-22 to Toulouse a couple months ago in the Champions Cup final.
While Toulouse definitely have the more star-studded squad, La Rochelle have some big guns of their own with Dillon Leyds, Bryce Dulin, Will Skelton and veteran Victor Vito all taking part in last weekend’s semi-final
Verdict: Toulouse 12/10
While there are chinks starting to show in the Toulouse armour, this side knows how to win finals. I expect a very tight affair here with the game going down to the wire.