The NPC action continues this weekend and we've still got three unbeaten teams at the top of the ladder with Hawke's Bay, Wellintgton and Tasman yet to taste defeat.
The Wellington Lions should be able to extend that run this weekend but will need to be wary of a much-improved Southland side, while Hawke’s and Tasman will go head-to-head in the pick of this weekend’s action.
Darry Worthington runs the rule over those two fixtures as well as the other seven games that are taking place between Friday and Sunday.
Friday 6 September
Bay of Plenty 1/20 | Draw 35/1 | Manawatu 17/2
We kick things off in Rotorua where foruth-placed Bay of Plenty will play host to cellar-dwellers Manawatu. The hosts have gone three from five during the early salvos of the season while Manawatu are yet to win a game and have a points differential of -70, which is the second worst in the ‘comp at the time of writing.
Both sides found the going tough in Round 4 with Bay of Plenty going down 34-15 away to Tasman, while Manawatu weren beaten 26-38 by log-leaders Hawke’s Bay.
Verdict: Bay of Plenty (1/20)
Manawatu, in fairness to them, have managed to cover the handicap in their previous two games as they gave Wellington and Hawke’s Bay real runs for their money. I think that trend will come to an end here against a Bay of Plenty team that will be in search of a bonus point win.
Saturday 7 September
Auckland 39/100 | Draw 25/1 | North Harbour 21/10
The Auckland derby is next up and this should be a rather hardfought fixture with both sides struggling for victories during the first half of the season.
The hosts for Saturday’s encounter head into this one off the back of their worst start to a domestic campaign since the late 1970’s as they are yet to win a game losing all four of their fixtures, with their latest defeat being last weekend’s 39-21 loss away to Waikato. They were extremely poor during the first half of that fixture and with so much talent on their books, one has to wonder if it’s a coaching issue for Auckland.
North Harbour has enjoyed a slightly better opening four rounds than their rivals as they have at least registered a victory with their sole win coming over Waikato (43-29) in Round 3. They were brought crashing back down to Earth this past weekend, however, as they went down 33-36 to Counties Manukau in a fixture they were firm favourites to win.
Verdict: Auckland (39/100)
I can see the hosts scrapping the narrowest of wins here so the plus handicap may actually be the way to go.
Saturday 7 September
Wellington 1/25 | Draw 35/1 | Southland 17/2
Next up we’ve got a vastly improved Southland side taking on a rampant Wellington Lions outfit. The hosts are yet to lose a game this term while Southland have managed two wins from their first four fixtures.
The Lions bounced back from a rather poor showing against cellar-dwellers Manawatu that saw them need a late blitz to come out nine point victors, by beating Canterbury 21-46 this past weekend. And while this is far from a vintage Canterbury side, the result was still mighty impressive as Wellington were ruthless with ball-in-hand.
Southland also impressed in Round 4 as they racked up a 26-31 away victory over Northland with a late 73rd-minute run away try being the difference between the sides.
Verdict: Wellington (17/2)
While Southland have impressed this term, I can’t see them keeping pace with this Wellington side who are lethal on attack.
Otago (31/20) | Draw 20/1| Canterbury 54/100
Otago and Canterbury are next up and both these sides have produced a mixed bag thus far with Canterbury winning two of their five fixtures while Otago have won two of their four.
This weekend’s visitors suffered a heavy defeat to a red-hot Wellington Lions outfit going down 21-46 to the men from the capital this past weekend. While Canterbury did have their moments in the fixture – they managed to score 21 points in the second half – they were pretty much beaten at half-time having conceded 31 points without reply by the time the sides went into the sheds.
Otago fared better in Round 4 as they claimed a losing bonus point as they went down 22-18 to Taranaki. They were actually 18-12 up with just over 20-minutes to go but conceded a well-worked try and were unable to get on the scoreboard again in rather treacherous weather conditions.
Verdict: Otago (31/20)
Canterbury have struggled thus far and I can see Otago coming out on top in what is likely to be an absolute slugfest.
Hawke’s Bay 12/10 | Draw 20/1 | Tasman 7/10
The headline clash for the weekend is next up with log-leaders Hawke’s Bay taking on third-placed Tasman. The hosts have a perfect record headed into this one and have claimed five bonus point wins in a row while Tasman are also yet to taste defeat but have played a game fewer and failed to pick up a try scoring bonus point in one of their fixtures which leaves them six points behind Hawke’s Bay on the log.
Both teams enjoyed solid outings this past weekend with Tasman racking up a big 34-15 win over Bay of Plenty while Hawke’s Bay beat Manawatu 26-38.
Verdict: Hawke’s Bay (12/10)
This game should be a cracking clash and my main strike will be on the Overs Total points lines via the Live In-Play platform. I’ll also be having a crack on Hawke’s Bay to clear a small handicap.
Taranaki 17/100 | Draw 28/1 | Waikato 42/10
Our penultimate game of the weekend will see Taranaki play host to a Waikato outfit that has had a busy week playing Auckland this past weekend and then North Harbour midweek.
The visitors were in dominant form at the weekend as Aaron Cruden rolled back the years being the focal point in a big 39-21 victory over Auckland. They managed to get a 34-19 win over Northland in the
midweek fixture, although the scoreline flattered them somewhat with a late try adding a lot of gloss to it,
Taranaki were less impressive at the weekend with a late try seeing them to a 22-18 win over Otago. In fairness to them, Otago put in a solid shift and the weather conditions weren’t really suited to running rugby.
Verdict: Waikato (42/10)
They rested a couple of their big guns midweek so fatigue shouldn’t be a major issue here. I’m expecting
Counties 23/20 | Draw 22/1 | Northland 71/100
The Round 5 action comes to a close at Navigation Homes Stadium where Counties Manukau will be looking to make it back-to-back wins over a Northland side who, like Waikato, have had a very busy week.
The hosts put in their best performance of the season this past weekend as they beat North Harbour 33-36. Having been given a ten put head start on the handicap, Counties certainly didn’t play like underdogs as they took the game to their opponents and were rewarded with a 78th-minute try from replacement back Senio Toleafoa handing them the win.
Northland have had a far tougher week as they went down 26-31 to Southland and then 34-19 to Waikato in the Wednesday game.
Verdict: Counties (23/20)
If they can play like they did this past weekend then the hosts should take this one.
