The NPC season seems to be flying by with just three rounds left until the close of the round-robin phase and the start of the sem. There's set to be an absolute mad dash for the quarter-final berths with most teams still in with a mathematical chance of qualifying for the next phase.
This weekend should narrow the aforementioned number down, however, especially with a number of teams who are closely positioned to one another on the table squaring off.
Friday 20 September
To Win (80 Mins)
Hawke’s Bay 15/20 | Draw 24/1 | Taranaki 11/10
We kick things off with a big one as fourth-placed Hawke’s Bay play host to sixth-placed Taranaki. The visitors currently sit seven points off Hawke’s Bay on the ladder and while they look good for a play-off berth, they will still be eager to bag a home quarter final.
The hosts head into this one off the back of a 50-5 drubbing at the hands of a solid Waikato side. It was their second defeat on the trot as they went down 24-25 to Tasman the week prior.
Taranaki also found the going tough in Round 6 as they went down 33-20 away to Bay of Plenty. It was their first loss since round two but their lack of ability when it comes to picking up bonus points is hindering them during this campaign.
Verdict: Hawke’s Bay 15/20
I fancy the hosts to take this by between 10 and 14 points. They have been solid at home this term and will be eager to bounce back after back-to-back defeats.
To Win (80 Mins)
Northland 3/1 | Draw 25/1 | North Harbour 1/4
We head over for the battle of the ‘Norths’ with North Harbour heading to Okara Park to take on Northland. The hosts currently find themselves in a battle to avoid the wooden spoon as they sit 12th on the ladder, just a solitary point above cellar-dwellers, Manawatu. North Harbour find themselves in a far more loft position as they lie ninth on the table. They are currently ten points adrift of the home semi-finals spots but they do have a game in hand over the majority of the other teams in the race for the quarters.
The hosts for the encounter gave a very good accorad of themselves this past weekend as they went down 17-24 to a star-studded if underperforming Auckland. Having trailed 5-24 with just under half an hour in the game remaining, Northland fought back and rallied with a try on the hour mark and then another six minutes later. They came so close to claiming the win in injury time with Rivez Reihana knocking on with the line at his mercy.
North Harbour had a far better time of it in Round 6 as they drilled competition whipping boys Manawatu 58-19 with Taine Edmund having a blinder with both boot and ball in hand as he scored two tries and converted a multitude of shots at goal.
Verdict: North Harbour 1/4
The visitors are the better of the two sides and while I reckon it’ll be a tight old game, my money is on them heading home with a win.
Saturday 21 September
To Win (80 Mins)
Canterbury 2/15 | Draw 38/1 | Counties 5/1
Next up we’ve got a desperate Canterbury side taking on a Counties outfit who are still on for a quarter-final berth, which will be a massive achievement for them.
After a poor Super Rugby campaign from the Crusaders, Canterbury will be desperate to grab some NPC silverware. They have made some decent strides in achieving that in recent weeks as they have bounced back from a very poor start to the season to win their last two fixtures, with their most recent victory being last weekend’s 29-41 win over a vastly improved Southland side.
Counties also impressed last weekend as they racked up a 45-17 win over Otago. They were full of endeavour with ball-in-hand during the fixture and scored seven tries on their way to picking up what may turn out to be a vital bonus-point win.
Verdict: Canterbury 2/15
Ryan Crotty’s return to the Canterbury match day squad has seen a swing in fortunes for the Cantaabs and I reckon their purple patch of form continues here.
To Win (80 Mins)
Wellington 23/100 | Draw 28/1 | Bay of Plenty 33/10
Current log-leaders Wellington take on third-placed Bay of Plenty in Saturday’s final fixture and this one should be an absolute cracker with both sides not afraid to give the ball a bit of air.
Wellington head into this one off their first defeat of the season as they went down 28-15 to Tasman this past Sunday. In fairness to Wellington, Tasman played some very good rugby on the day while the Lions did not get the rub of the green with a number of TMO decisions going against them.
Bay of Plenty found the going a bit easier last weekend but were still pushed hard by Taranaki, who they beat 33-20. They seem to be hitting form at just the right time too as they beat Manawatu 68-14 the week prior.
Verdict: Wellington 23/100
This should be a great game and I’m expecting a load of points. I’m also expecting Wellington to respond from last weekend’s defeat with a big win.
Sunday 22 September
To Win (80 Mins)
Waikato 15/10 | Draw 21/1 | Tasman 54/100
Sunday’s opener should be yet another belter of a game with a very good Waikato side taking on one of the tournament favourites, Tasman.
The Mooloo have really come to play this year with their talented squad seemingly galvanized by the return of former All Black Aaron Cruden. They put in their performance of the season this past weekend beating last season’s runners-up Hawke’s Bay 50-5, with the win seeing them move to fifth place on the log and five points off fourth-placed Hawke’s Bay.
Tasman too have played some very good rugby this term and are now only two points adrift of the Wellington Lions, who they beat 28-15 this past weekend.
Verdict: Waikato 15/10
I really fancy the hosts here. They have been solid at home this term and I can see them chalking up another win and improving their semi-finals hopes.
To Win (80 Mins)
Manawatu (Odds TBA) | Draw (Odds TBA) | Otago (Odds TAB)
Our penultimate game of the weekend sees cellar-dwellers Manawatu play host to 11th-placed Otago. Both these sides are highly unlikely to make a quarter-final and are realistically in a battle to avoid the wooden spoon.
Manawatu have had a strange old week. Having been hammered 58-19 by North Harbour at the weekend, they then bounced back midweek as they beat Southland 26-21 to record their first win of the campaign.
Otago also suffered a heavy defeat this past weekend as they went down 45-17 to Counties. They looked devoid of ideas on attack and the less said about their ball handling, the better.
Verdict: Manawatu (Odds TBA)
I fancy the hosts to go two from two here. They may concede a lot of points but they do know how to attack unlike their opponents.
To Win (80 Mins)
Auckland 1/11| Draw 38/1 | Southland 6/1
The weekend’s action comes to a close at Eden Park where Auckland and Southland will be looking to edge closer to the quarter-final berths when they go head-to-head.
The hosts have been far from impressive over the past few weeks but have managed to bag two wins on the trot beating North Harbour in Round 5 and then Northland 17-24 this past weekend. They were actually exceedingly lucky not to have seen that game taken to extra time as Northland fly-half Rivez Reihana knocked the ball on while over the line, which would have given himself an easy shot at goal to level matters.
Southland have endured a rough week. They gave a decent account of themselves against Canterbury in Round 6 putting up a real fight despite going down 29-41. They then suffered something of a shock defeat midweek as they went down 26-21 to cellar-dwellers Manawatu.
Verdict: Southland 6/1
Manawatu have struggled to string performances together this term and I can see them struggling against a Southland side that has impressed at times this season.
