The big dance is finally here! And what a tango we’re in for as old foes South Africa and New Zealand go head to head in a bid to become the first side to lift the Webb Ellis Cup for a fourth time. Jason Dewey and Darry Worthington preview.
After 23 years the fiercest of rugby rivals, South Africa and New Zealand, will once again square off in a Rugby World Cup final with the duo going head-to-head for the Webb Ellis Cup this Saturday evening.
This is sure to be a titanic clash between the Southern Hemisphere heavyweights who are both looking to become the most successful team in World Cup history by being the first side to claim the cup four times.
South Africa v New Zealand
Saturday 28 October
Stade de France
21:00
To Win (80 Mins)
South Africa 92/100 | Draw 22/1 | New Zealand 92/100
Handicap
South Africa (-0.5) 19/20 | New Zealand (+0.5) 17/20
To Lift the Trophy
South Africa 9/10 | New Zealand 9/10
An album of memories!
— Springboks (@Springboks) October 27, 2023
Tomorrow, the next chapter will be written 🇿🇦🏆#StrongerTogether #Springboks #RWC2023 pic.twitter.com/23LJeDSoIM
Road to the Final
So much for Northern Hemisphere dominance! South Africa and New Zealand proved many a pundit wrong as the two sides marched to the final knocking out the two pre-tournament favourites, France and Ireland, on their way to the big-ticket fixture.
While there were blips in the Pools for the two Southern Hemisphere giants, with New Zealand going down 27-13 to France in the tournament opener and South Africa losing 8-13 to Ireland in their Pool B clash, both sides managed to bounce back with strong performances in the knock-out phase of the competition.
The Kiwis started their play-off phase with a bang after recovering from their opening-day loss to finish second in Pool A and give themselves a quarter-final date with the Irish. Having gone into the fixture as slight underdogs, the Kiwis produced one of their best World Cup displays excelling with ball-in-hand during the first 60 minutes of the fixture and then holding fast against wave after wave of Irish attacks to claim a 24-28 win over Andy Farell’s men.
South Africa also came through a tough old quarter-final with their runners-up berth in Pool B seeing them face tournament hosts France in the first phase of the knock-out rounds. A pulsating fixture it was with South Africa edging the affair 28-29 courtesy of a solid attacking performance which saw them score four tries to France’s two.
South African fans were in for another nervous 80 minutes this past weekend as the Springboks edged England 15-16 in their semi-final encounter. Trailing 16-5 with less than 15 minutes left to the final whistle an RG Snyman try and a long-range penalty secured South Africa their fourth World Cup final appearance.
New Zealand had it a lot easier in their semi-final encounter with Rugby Championship rivals Argentina with the All Blacks cruising to a 6-44 win over the undercooked South Americans. It was vintage Kiwi rugby as Ian Foster’s men ran riot scoring seven tries while not allowing Los Pumas to cross their line.
The toughest test still to come#RWC2023 | #RWCFinal pic.twitter.com/TB8LordVhZ
— Rugby World Cup (@rugbyworldcup) October 22, 2023
Team News
Jacques Nienaber has sensationally opted for a 7-1 split on the bench against the All Blacks. Faf de Klerk and Handre Pollard slot back into the starting XV with Manie Libbok cruelly missing out on the matchday 23 altogether. The decision to omit Libbok and opt for the 7-1 split would certainly have been made easier by the weatherman. 13-knot winds and rain all week leading up to and on the day of the final will turn this into an attritional tie.
Expect a forward-based battle with Faf de Klerk to do plenty of kicking from the base of the ruck with heaps of rain expected in Paris on Saturday evening.
Ian Foster named his 23 a couple of hours later. There were only two changes with Brodie Retallick returning to the starting line-up with Sam Whitelock dropping to the bench.
The other change saw Nepo Laulala named on the wood in place of Fletcher Newell. Laulala will have the unenviable task of packing down against Ox Nche in the second half.
Springboks
15 Damian Willemse, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Cheslin Kolbe, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Subs: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Ox Nche, 18 Trevor Nyakane, 19 Jean Kleyn, 20 RG Snyman, 21 Kwagga Smith, 22 Jasper Wiese, 23 Willie le Roux.
All Blacks
15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Mark Tele’a, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane (c), 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot.
Subs: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Nepo Laulala, 19 Samuel Whitelock, 20 Dalton Papali’i, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 Damian McKenzie, 23 Anton Lienert-Brown.
The South Africa team is in 🇿🇦
— Rugby World Cup (@rugbyworldcup) October 26, 2023
Faf and Pollard start and a 7-1 bench split 👀#RWC2023 | #RWCFinal pic.twitter.com/mXIYx49qmS
The Stats That Matter
The two sides have clashed in five Rugby World Cup fixtures with the results as follows:
- 1995 Final: SA 15-12 NZ *Extra Time
- 1999 3rd/4th Place Play-Off: SA 22-18 NZ
- 2003 Quarter-Final: NZ 29-9 SA
- 2015 Semi-Final: NZ 22-19 SA
- 2019 Pool Phase: NZ 23-12 SA
The sides have met twice this year already with New Zealand winning their solitary Rugby Championship encounter 35-20 in Auckland while South Africa bounced back with a 35-7 win in a Rugby World Cup warm-up encounter at Twickenham.
Looking at the World Cup stats, New Zealand’s biggest attacking threat has been Will Jordan who tops the tournament’s try-scoring charts with eight tries, while Cobus Reinach is SA’s leading try scorer with four.
The Kiwis also have some impressive team stats topping the points scoring charts with 325 points, the try scoring charts with 48 tries and the conversion stats with 35.
Key Battles
There are two areas we need to look at here. The half-backs and the packs. Forward dominance is going to be vital in what will likely be awful conditions.
We can expect a fair amount of handling errors which means there could be scrums aplenty. Tyrell Lomax and Ethan de Groot will need to find parity against Frans Malherbe and Kitsoff from the off. If that New Zealand pack starts going backwards early on, the All Blacks will be in massive trouble.
With seven forwards named on the wood – including Ox Nche who has been folding opposition tightheads like deckchairs all tournament – the starters will be able to empty their tanks.
The other area we need to look at is the half-backs. De Klerk’s kicking out of hand will be key here. South Africa will want to play in the New Zealand half, but errant box kicks will no doubt be punished by the All Blacks’ deadly back three who have routinely cut opposition defences to ribbons.
When all is said and done, however, we’ll probably be speaking about which of the 10s had the better day off the tee. Pollard will shoulder the goalkicking duties alone for the Boks while Jordie Barrett (who will be on long-range penalty duty) and Mo’unga will share the duties for the All Blacks.
Bottle.#ENGvRSA | #RWC2023 pic.twitter.com/GO1KjR11js
— Rugby World Cup (@rugbyworldcup) October 22, 2023
Verdict: South Africa 92/100
In perfect conditions, I’d be leaning more toward the All Blacks. However, the Springboks’ forward-based game is far better suited to the wet. And barring any injuries to the backs, the 7/1 split could be the key to icing the game in the final 20 minutes.
