The odds have fluctuated for this one greatly since the markets opened up about a month or so ago with France originally favorites before a number of injuries ravaged their camp, while the All Blacks were the shorter of the sides until their heavy warm-up defeat to the Springboks.
France v New Zealand
Friday 8 September
Stade De France
France 10/11 | Draw 18/1 | New Zealand 10/11
The hosts have endured a bit of a nightmare lead-in to the tournament with a number of key players sustaining injuries. Playmaker Romain Ntamack is out for the entire tournament with a cruciate ligament injury. His absence is a massive blow to the French as he and scrumhalf Antoine Dupont have a telepathic understanding having come through the French national and Toulouse youth systems.
To make maters worse for the French midfield, incumbent inside center Jonathan Danty is said to be touch and go for this one. He trained with the squad on Monday but didn’t do some of the drills. Like the Dupont/Ntamack pairing, Danty and outside centre Gael Fickou are also extremely important to the French cause, with attack coach Laurent Labit illustrating this with the following comment: “We know the midfield is very important, especially at the international level. We need to make our mark in this area. He also complements Gael [Fickou] very well.”
Should Danty fail to make the run on side then Arthur Vincent is likely to take his place, while Matheu Jalibert is likely to start at fly-half for the French this Friday.
It’s not just in the backs where France’s injurie woes have occurred with veteran prop Cyrille Baille out for the first few weeks of the tournament while lock Paul Willemse has been ruled out of the entire thing with a serious wrist injury.
The Kiwis are in better shape when it comes to injuries and suspensions with Scott Barrett avoiding a ban following his red card against South Africa while Shannon Frizell and Brodie Retallick are said to have only a very small chance of featuring in this one.
While the Kiwis are physically pretty fit, mentally they may not be all there following their record breaking 7-35 defeat to South Africa in London. Confidence would have been high in the Kiwi camp headed into that fixture with yet another Rugby Championship title under their belts and a flawless start to 2023. They were absolutely smothered by the South Africans’ rush defence, however, and they will need to learn how to exploit the gaps left by rushing defenders as the French midfield may look to press harder off the line using the Springboks’ defensive showing as a blueprint.
I know France have beat them at this venue less than 12 months ago but I just feel the All Blacks are due a big showing especially after their heavy defeat to South Africa at Twickenham a fortnight ago.
A lot could hinge on the midfield battle, and with Danty not playing, or even playing but not at 100%, the Kiwis should hold the upper hand there. And while Rettalick is a big miss for the Kiwis, it kind of equals itself out with the French missing the physical Willemse as well.
Verdict: New Zealand
