PREVIEW: Super Rugby 2024 – Round 14

Round 14 has thrown up some absolute crackers with Friday’s opener seeing the fourth-placed Chiefs take on the second-placed Hurricane in the match of the day.

The blockbuster for Saturday is also a Kiwi derby as the Crusaders look to keep their play-off hopes alive by getting one over arch-foes and current log leaders, the Blues.

Friday 24 May

Chiefs 6/10 | Draw 20/1 | Hurricanes 14/10 (09:05)

Handicap
Chiefs (-3.5) 9/10 | Hurricanes (+3.5) 9/10

It’s a big one first up with two of the tournament favourites squaring off in Hamilton. The hosts are currently five points adrift of the ‘Canes, who have a tricky final-round fixture against the Highlanders to contend with, so a loss here would put the pressure on them when it comes to securing home semi-final hosting rights.

Both teams have performed admirably this term with the visitors winning ten of their 12 fixtures while the hosts have one victory fewer. In terms of recent form, however, the Chiefs have enjoyed a better time of it in the run-in for the quarter-finals winning their last four games on the trot with their last defeat – somewhat ironically – coming against the Hurricanes in early April. The ‘Canes, on the other hand, have lost two of their last four matches, going down 31-21 to the Blues a fortnight ago and 27-19 to the Brumbies two weeks before that.

You’re only as good as your last fixture, however, and both sides bagged narrow wins with a late penalty from Damien McKezie sealing a 23-26 victory over the Rebels in Melbourne, while the Hurricanes survived a late scare from Moana Pasifika running out 32-24 victors in Wellington.

The Hurricanes rested a load of players last week and we’re likely to see mass change for them this weekend, while we’re only likely to see one or two tweaks from the Chiefs who fielded a strong side this past weekend.

Verdict: Chiefs (-3.5) 9/10

I fancy the hosts to win this one with some space to spare. The ‘Canes have not been at their fluid best in recent weeks and I can see the Chiefs giving them a massive wake up call just in time for the knock-out rounds.

Brumbies 1/8 | Draw 33/1 | Rebels 5/1 (11:35)

Handicap
Brumbies (-14.5) 9/10 | Rebels (+14.5) 9/10

It’s over to Canberra for Friday’s final fixture which will see the third-placed Brumbies take on the sixth-placed Rebels. The hosts will have one eye on the Hurricanes versus Chiefs match as a Hurricanes defeat could see the door open on them booking a possible home semi-final, while the Rebels will be looking for a win that could, in theory, set them up with a quarter-final clash against the Reds.

The hosts’ solid vein of form continued this past weekend as they made it four wins on the trot by beating a determined Crusaders outfit 31-24. And while the victory came against a far-from-vintage Canterbury side and was only achieved through the strangest of last-minute penalty tries, the Brumbies will undoubtedly take any win over their old Kiwi foes.

While the Brumbies came out on top in a dramatic clash with Kiwi opposition, the Rebels were unable to do so as a 78th-minute penalty from Damien McKenzie wrecked their fight back as they went down 23-26 to the men from Waikato.

Verdict: Brumbies (-14.5) 9/10

They may have run the Chiefs close but I can’t see the Rebels doing the same against a Brumbies side that will be on the hunt for a bonus point win.

Saturday 25 May

Moana Pasifika 7/10 | Draw 20/1 | Waratahs 12/10

Handicap
Moana Pasifika (-2.5) 9/10 | Waratahs (+2.5) 9/10

While in theory this game does have a bit riding on it with both sides still in with a mathematical chance of qualifying for the quarter-finals, it’s unlikely that either team will make the knock-out phase with Moana seven points adrift of the final play-off berth and the Waratahs two points further off. Hope springs eternal, however, and even if both sides have come to terms with their likely fate, they will still be eager to avoid the wooden spoon.

Moana Pasifika actually gave a really decent account of themselves against a young Hurricanes side this past weekend going down 32-24 in Wellington courtesy of a second-half fightback that saw them draw within five points of their opponents five minutes to play.

The Waratahs were far less impressive in Round 13 as they were well beaten by the Force, going down 27-7 in Perth. They have been struggling on attack in recent rounds and only average 13.3 points per game in their last three fixtures.

Verdict: Moana Pasifika 7/10

The Waratahs seem a dejected lot at the minute as their woes on attack indicate. My money is on them struggling here.

Crusaders 2/1 | Draw 22/1 | Blues 4/10 (09:05)

Handicap
Crusaders (+5.5) 9/10 | Blues (-5.5) 9/10

The Crusaders still have an outside chance of making the play-offs but must dust themselves off after yet another defeat last time out. A late penalty try for the Brumbies scuppered their attempt at a late-season charge in a 31-24. They’re 15th at the moment and will back themselves to beat Moana Pasifika next week, but defeat here will sound the end of their season. 

They’re up against the table-topping Blues. The men from Auckland have only lost once this season, but that came way back in round three away at the ‘Canes. They blew the Highlanders away last weekend and will back themselves to get past the Crusaders. 

Verdict: Crusaders (+5.5) 9/10

While the Crusaders are having a woeful season, you simply cannot rule them out against the Blues. These two sides have a lot of history and despite the gulf on the log indicating otherwise, I reckon this will be a close old affair. Money on the hosts on the plus line.

Reds 1/6 | Draw 33/1 | Force 4/1

Handicap
Reds (-13.5) 9/10 | Force (+13.5) 9/10

It’s the final derby for the weekend and it’s a big one with the Reds looking to shore up fifth spot on the log while the Force try to close the two-point gap between themselves and the Drua, who will take on the Highlanders the following day.

The hosts were the latest side to suffer defeat in Fiji going down 28-19 to the Drua this past weekend. Some very sloppy defending saw the Reds go 12-0 down within the opening few minutes of the game and while they did hit back with two tries before half-time, further slipped tackles and a red card cost them as League convert Suliasi Vunivalu, who went full-on Roy Keane, with two trip tackles meant the Reds were always going to struggle to overturn the Drua’s lead.

The Force had a far better time of it in Round 13 as they registered their fourth win of the campaign beating the Waratahs 27-7. This was their second win in succession having beaten the Drua 48-10 in Round 12, and they seem to be hitting form at just the right time.

Verdict: Reds (-13.5) 9/10

They’ll be without Vunivalu this weekend which is probably a good thing as red-hot winger Tim Ryan will likely return to the fold. I can see the youngster inspiring the Reds to a solid win here.

Sunday 26 May

Highlanders 1/3 | Draw 22/1 | Drua 24/10 (04:05)

Handicap
Highlanders (-8.5) 9/10 | Drua (+8.5) 9/10

This is a big one for both the Highlanders and the Drua who are separated by just two log points. The equation is a pretty simple one for both teams: bag a win and you’re in the driver’s seat for quarter-final qualification while a loss means you’re facing a mountain in the final round. Especially for the Highlanders who’ll have a Round 15 date with the ‘Canes to contend with.

The hosts for Sunday’s encounter saw their three-game winning streak come to an abrupt halt as they were beaten 47-13 by a clinical Blues outfit. And while they did manage to stay in the game for the first half hour, the writing was on the wall for the Highlanders when the Blues mauled over from ten metres out on the 10-minute mark.

While the Highlanders got nothing out of their Round 13 fixtures, the Drua claimed a vital four-point haul as they beat the Reds ill-discipline to run out 28-19 victors in Fiji. It was the perfect tonic for them having been hammered 48-10 by the Force a week prior.

Verdict: Drua (+8.5) 9/10

I reckon we could be in for a tight one with so much on the line which is why I fancy the visitors on the plus.