We’re heading into the third round of what is already proving to be a fascinating edition of Super Rugby. The Chiefs lead the way early doors from the Hurricanes and the Blues while the Crusaders are 10th after a winless start.
Round 2 has come and gone with the Waratahs reinforcing their status as the Crusaders’ bogey team continued with the men from New South Wales producing one of the shocks of the round as they beat their Canterbury counterparts 24-37.
This wasn’t the only upset of the second week with Moana Pasifika finally getting a win over the Drua.
Moana Pasifika v Rebels | Friday 8 March | FMG Stadium Waikato | 08:05
Moana Pasifika 19/10 | Draw 20/1 | Rebels 9/20
Handicap
Moana Pasifika (+6.5) 9/10 | Rebels (-6.5) 9/10
FMG Stadium Waikato plays host to a tie featuring two sides that will be full of confidence after last weekend’s exploits.
Round 2 proved to be a very productive one for both the Rebels and Mona Pasifika as both bounced back from opening-round defeats to claim impressive wins. The Rebels, who played host for last weekend’s Super Round, made home-ground advantage count as they beat local rivals the Force 48-34. And while there were still major defensive issues for the Rebels to address, they will be pleased with bagging 48 points having scored only a penalty in their 3-30 Round 1 defeat at the hands of the Brumbies.
Like their opponents for this weekend, Moana Pasifika also came out the right side of a high-scoring affair in Round 2 as they beat the Drua 39-36 surviving a late assault from their Fijian opposition. Moana will be aware that poor discipline almost cost them that win as they received a yellow and red card in the final half hour of the fixture. They will also need to shore up their defensive efforts having conceded 71 points in their opening two games.
Verdict: Moana Pasifika (+6.5) 9/10
I fancy a Moana Pasifika win here. They have looked vastly improved compared to last season and a game in Waikato favours them far more than it does the Rebels. For a bit of safety, take the “hosts” on the plus.
Waratahs v Highlanders | Friday 8 March | Allianz Stadium | 10:35
Waratahs 6/10 | Draw 20/1 | Highlanders 14/10
Handicap
Waratahs (-3.5) 9/10 | Highlanders (+3.5) 9/10
Friday’s second and final fixture sees another team who will be riding high look to make home-ground advantage count with the Waratahs locking horns with the Highlanders.
The ‘Tahs put in a stunning shift last weekend beating the Crusaders 24-37. Not many would have given the men from New South Wales a sniff here considering they were coming off a rather poor Round 1 showing having lost 40-22 to the Reds. However, the ‘Tahs do fancy a game against the most successful side in Super Rugby history and they once again delivered against Canterbury’s big boys winning the fixture by 13 points.
While the Waratahs bagged their first win of the campaign in Round 2 , the Highlanders experienced their first defeat going down 29-37 to the Blues. Having dominated the opening quarter of the game, some poor defensive work cost the Highlanders as they took their foot off the gas allowing the Blues to surge into the lead just after half-time. While they will need to work on their game management, there were a lot of positives to take from last weekend’s defeat for the Highlanders with Welsh import Rhys Patchell producing another eye-catching performance in the ten jumper.
In terms of team news for this one, former Crusaders man Tom Sanders gets a start on the flank for the Highlanders. He’s joined on the loose trio by Billy Harman and Hugh Renton. On the Waratah side of things, Wallaby Izaia Perese returns after a concussion slotting into the centres in place of Harry Wilson, while Ned Haningan gets a start on the flank.
Verdict: Waratahs 6/10
I fancy the hosts here. They were sold against the Crusaders last week and I’m expecting another good performance from them this weekend.
Fijian Drua v Crusaders | Saturday 9 March | Churchill Park |03:05
Drua 5/2 | Draw 20/1 | Crusaders 1/3
Handicap
Drua (+8.5) 9/10 | Crusaders (-8.5) 9/10
The Drua will be looking to arrest a poor start to the season and repeat one of the biggest upsets of the 2023 campaign when they take on the Crusaders at Churchill Park.
The Crusaders know they will be stepping into a hostile atmosphere this weekend having lost to the Drua at Churchill Park last season that set off a celebration never seen before in Super Rugby. This Crusaders team does their best business when their backs are against the wall and after last weekend’s defeat to the ‘Tahs, the ‘Saders camp will definitely be feeling a bit of pressure to produce a result.
Like their opponents, the Drua also find themselves under the cosh somewhat having followed up their 34-10 loss at the hands of the Blues with a 39-36 defeat to Moana Pasifika. They did look a far improved side in the final 20 minutes last week and if they can replicate that intensity from the outset here, then they may have a sniff of claiming another famous win over the Crusaders.
The visitors have opted to freshen things up with three potential debutants on the bench. Their starting XV contains just two changes with veteran Willi Heinz coming in at scrumhalf while Manasa Mataele gets a start on the wing. The Drua are yet to announce their matchday 23 at the time of writing but I would not expect too many changes from last weekend.
Verdict: Drua (+8.5) 9/10
I feel the Drua are due a good showing and the memory of beating the Crusaders on home soil last term will be a major motivating factor. While I can’t see them claiming a win, they should keep things within the handicap.
Brumbies v Force | Saturday 9 March | GIO Stadium | 08:05
Brumbies 1/14 | Draw 40/1 | Force 7/1
Handicap
Brumbies (-18.5) 9/10 | Force (+18.5) 9/10
It’s an all-Australian affair next up with the Brumbies taking on the Force in Canberra. Both sides come into this one off the back of heavy defeats with the hosts for Saturday’s encounter going down 46-12 to the Chief while the Force lost 48-34 to the Rebels.
To say the Brumbies performance last week was poor is an understatement. The men from Canberra had produced a really solid display in Round 1 beating the Rebels 3-30, with both their attacking and defensive systems looking well tuned. That was not the case in Round 2 as they were torn apart by the Chiefs, who exposed their defence by playing deeper off set pieces and starving the Brumbies of possession.
While the Force did manage to register more points than the Brumbies in Round 1, they were also exposed with the Rebels taking full advantage of some poor defending from the Force. They are fast building a reputation for being one of the worst defensive sides in the comp, having conceded 92 points in the opening two rounds.
Verdict: Brumbies (-18.5) 9/10
I fully expect the Brumbies to bounce back here. While they were poor against the Chiefs, it must be remembered just how strong the Waikato side is. The Force are a massive step down in class and they should cause the Brumbies no issues this weekend.
Hurricanes v Blues | Saturday 9 March | Wellington Regional Stadium | 08:05
Hurricanes 16/10 | Draw 20/1 | Blues 53/100
Handicap
Hurricanes (+4.5) 9/10 | Blues (-4.5) 9/10
The penultimate game of the weekend should be a tasty old affair with unbeaten Hurricanes and Blues squaring off in Wellington. Both sides have looked good in the opening two rounds and this game should provide fireworks.
The hosts maintained their unbeaten start to the campaign in the most heart-attack-inducing fashion for fans as their clash with the Reds went to Golden Point with replacement prop Pasilio Tosi dotting down to hand the ‘Canes a win. It was a solid result for the Wellington outfit, who had lost Jordie Barrett with the All Black given his marching orders in the second half for a high shot.
The Blues found the going easier in Round 2 as they recovered from a slow start to beat the Highlanders 29-37. They will need to make sure they are up for it from the outset against the Hurricanes, however, as they won’t take their foot off the gas like the Highlanders did.
It’s bad news when it comes to team news for this weekend’s hosts with Jordie Barrett ruled out for three weeks due to a suspension. While the Hurricanes are yet to announce their matchday 3 at the time of writing, the Blues have with head coach Vern Cotter opting to drop in form eight Hoskins Sotutu to the bench and move fellow All Black Akira Ioane to eight with Anton Segner taking his place on the flank. Other notable changes see All Blacks pairing Rieko Ionae and Finlay Christie return to the starting XV.
Verdict: Blues 53/100
The loss of Jordie Barrett is massive for the ‘Canes and with Rieko Ioane back in midfield for the Blues, I reckon the Aucklanders now have the advantage. Money on the away team here.
Reds v Chiefs | Saturday 9 March | Suncorp Stadium | 10:35
Reds 33/10 | Draw 25/1 | Chiefs 2/9
Handicap
Reds (+10.5) 9/10 | Chiefs (-10.5) 9/10
The Chiefs will once again look to make short work of Australian opposition when they take on a Reds outfit that has performed better than many expected they would thus far.
The hosts, having gotten their campaign off to a solid start with an 18-point win over the Rebel in Round 1, were desperately unlucky not to go two from two last weekend as a late Hurricanes try forced the game into extra time where the ‘Canes would bag a Golden Point win. It was hugely disappointing for the Queenslanders who had put in a mammoth shift.
While the Reds experienced late heartbreak in Round 2’s Super Round, it was business as usual for Chiefs who racked up a big win over the best Australia has to offer beating the Brumbies 46-12.
Verdict: Chiefs (-10.5) 9/10
The men from Waikato once again look a class apart this year and I can’t see the Reds sticking with them for the full 80 minutes. My money’s on the Chiefs comfortably clearing the handicap.
