PREVIEW: Super Rugby 2024 – Round 10

The men from Canterbury were the big losers in Round 9 as they suffered a defeat to the Western Force that saw the Aussie side leapfrog the ‘Saders on the ladder.

Fellow Kiwis, the Highlanders also had a weekend to forget as they were hammered by the Reds. The two big winners last weekend were the Hurricanes and Blues with the former making it eight wins from eight starts while the latter solidified their second place position on the conference ladder with an impressive 46-7 win over the Brumbies.

Looking ahead to this weekend’s action now, we have a full fixture with the pick of this weekend’s six fixtures seeing the Brumbies square off with the Hurricanes in Canterbury while the Reds take on the Blues in Queensland.

Friday 26 April

Crusaders 2/9 | Draw 28/1 | Rebels 33/10 (09:05)

Handicap
Crusaders (-11.5) 9/10 | Rebels (+11.5) 9/10

The Crusaders will be looking to claw their way off the foot of the table by getting a big win over a Rebels side who currently sit 17 points above them in fourth spot.

Had you done a bit of crystal ball gazing prior to the tournament and reported back with a forecast of the Rebels lying in fourth and the Crusaders lying in last at the close of Round 9 you would have been kicked out of the old soothsayer’s clan. However, nine weeks in and that’s exactly where we find ourselves in what is turning out to be a crazy Super Rugby season.

Last week was the lowest of low points for Rob Penney and his Crusaders as they were outplayed by a Force side that had only one win before the encounter with the most successful team in Super Rugby history. While the golden point loss to the Waratahs a week prior would have stung, how the Crusaders capitulated in the final quarter of their clash with the Force – they were only seven points down with 20-minutes to play after Sevu Reece scored with a piece of magic in the corner – is a real cause for concern as the final quarter of games is where previous iterations of this ‘Saders side have come to the fore.

While they will be crying in Canterbury this week, there could well be tears of joy in Melbourne over the next few weeks as the Rebels look almost certain of a quarter-final berth as they are 11 points clear of eighth-placed Moana Pasifika.

The men Melbourne have really turned their season around over the past month registering a 21-27 away win over the Waratahs, a 41-20 win at home over a dangerous Drua side and then backing that up with a 47-31 win over the Highlanders in Round 9. The Rebels will make the trip across the Tasman rather fresh as well as they enjoyed a bye week in Round 10.

Verdict: Crusaders (-11.5) 9/10

I hate myself for doing this as I did the exact same last week – backed the Crusaders to come good – but I can’t help but think they are due a big win.

Waratahs 4/1 | Draw 33/1 | Chiefs 1/6 (11:35)

Handicap
Waratahs (+13.5) 9/10 | Chiefs (-13.5) 9/10

We head across the Tasman for our next fixture which will see the ninth-placed Waratahs take on the fifth-placed Chiefs. The hosts are looking to move back into the play-off berths while the visitors will be on the hunt for a big bonus-point win which would see them temporarily leapfrog the Brumbies into third-place.

If it wasn’t for the Crusaders, the Waratahs would be winless at this point with their only two victories coming against the hapless Cantabs. Their second victory over Rob Penny’s men came two weeks ago in Round 8 where the two sides went toe-to-toe and try-to-try only for a late Waratahs penalty to Force a high-scoring thriller to ‘Golden Point’, after which a drop goal would give the ‘Tahs what could prove to be a most vital win as it snapped a five-game losing streak.

While the Tahs have struggled for results the Chiefs have enjoyed a better time of it of late. Although they have been on a slightly patchy run of form losing two of their last four fixtures. Those defeats came at the hands of the Crusaders (37-27) and the Hurricanes (36-23) while they beat Moana Pasifika (68-12) and the Highlanders (28-21).

Like the ‘Tahs, the Chiefs head into this one off the back of a bye and should have all their big guns ready and firing for this clash.

Verdict: Chiefs (-13.5) 9/10

The men from Waikato know a bonus point win here would put them right up the table and would pile the pressure on the likes of the Brumbies, Blues and Rebels who are gunning for top four places. I reckon they’ll achieve just that this coming Friday.

Saturday 27 April

Drua 1/6 | Draw 33/1 | Moana Pasifika 4/1 (04:05)

Handicap
Drua (-12.5) 9/10 | Moana Pasifika (+12.5) 9/10

It’s over to Churchill Park for our next Saturday fixture which sees a Drua side who will be desperate to bounce back from their defeat to the Hurricanes playing host to Moana Pasifika. The two sides are currently locked on 13 conference points apiece but the Drua sit a place higher in seventh due to their superior points differential.

Having closed off March with two home wins over the Waratahs (39-36) and the Force (31-13), the Drua fans would have entered April full of confidence. That was to be short-lived, however, as poor discipline cost them against the Rebels with the Fijians going down 41-20 in Melbourne after receiving several cards. They then returned home to take on the Hurricanes, and while they did give the competition leaders a real run, especially during the second stanza, they ultimately went down 15-38. After those two defeats, there’s a lot of pressure on them to win this one.

While the Drua tasted defeat in their last outing, Moana Pasifika managed to snap a three-game losing streak by springing a surprise win over the Reds in Round 8. They had shipped 175 points in their three games before clashing with the Reds and one could see a lot of work had gone into suring up their defence.

Verdict: Drua 1/6

As is always the case when these two meet, I expect a lot of points in this one which makes the In-Play totals over lines really enticing. I also be backing the Drua to inflict a spot of revenge and avenge their 39-36 loss to Moana earlier in the season.

Brumbies 17/10 | Draw 20/1 | Hurricanes 5/10 (06:35)

Handicap
Brumbies (+5.5) 9/10 | Hurricanes (-5.5) 9/10

We travel to Canberra for our next fixture which should be a cracker as the long-leading Hurricanes take on the third-placed Brumbies. The visitors are yet to lose a game this term and will be looking to extend their lead at the summit of the standings, which currently sits at five points over the second-placed Blues.

The hosts head into this one off the back of a wake-up call as they were hammered 46-7 by the Blues this past weekend. While they did start the game well, scoring the opening try and kept the Blues scoreless up until the 33rd minute of the fixture, the gulf in quality between the two sides was more and more evident as the game wore on.

The Hurricanes fared far better in Round 9 as they went to Suva and picked up a comfortable enough bonus point win. While they were pushed at times by the Fijians, they were always able to keep their opponents at arm’s length. The victory did come at a cost, however, as hooker Asamoa Aumua sustained what looked to be a rather serious injury. It’s a shame for the big man as he was really putting his hand up for All Blacks selection having been on the outskirts of the national squad in recent years.

Verdict: Brumbies (+5.5) 9/10

I have a gut feeling that the ‘Canes unbeaten streak will come to an end here. That game against the Drua was physically demanding and the travel will have also taken its toll on the tournament pacesetters.

Highlanders 1/3 | Draw 22/1 | Force 24/10 (09:05)

Handicap
Highlanders (-7.5) 9/10 | Force (+7.5) 9/10

Our penultimate game of the weekend sees the tenth-placed Highlanders take on the 11th-placed Force. Just two points separate the sides on the ladder but a defeat here would really put a dent in either side’s slim play-off hopes.

The Highlanders put in arguably their worst showing of the season this past weekend as they went down 0-31 to the Reds in Queensland. They butchered several try-scoring opportunities – especially in the first half – and were made to pay for their wastefulness with the Reds running away with the game in the second stanza.

While the Highlanders suffered yet another defeat, the Force managed their first win of the campaign beating the Crusaders 37-15 in Perth. Former Wallaby Kurtley Beale marked his return to rugby after a long-running legal battle with a solid showing while Force fly-half Ben Donaldson also impressed with a 17-point haul.

Verdict: Force (+7.5) 9/10

I fancy the Highlanders to win it at home but with their defence as porous as it has been this season, I can’t see them clearing the handicap.

Reds 26/10 | Draw 25/1 | Blues 3/10 (11:35)

Handicap
Reds (+9.5) 9/10 | Blues (-9.5) 9/10

The Round 10 action comes to a close with what should be a cracking fixture between the Reds and the Blues. The hosts have blown hot and cold this season but when they are in the mood they are a good team to watch and could give the Blues a run if they pitch up mentally.

Les Kiss’ men broke a three-game losing streak this past weekend, bouncing back from a shock three-point loss to Moana Pasifika by putting in an impressive display with a 31-0 victory over the Highlanders. Their defensive structure – which in fairness, has been tidy this entire season – looked excellent against the ‘Landers, especially in the midfield. They will need to front up again this weekend as the Blues have found their attacking groove of late.

Speaking of the Blues’ attacking prowess, Joe Schmidt’s men ran in tries for fun during the second half of their 46-7 win over the Brumbies. While the former Irish head coach will be slightly worried about how his side started last week’s fixture – the Blues only bagged their first points of the game in the 33rd minute – he will be pleased with how his side responded to a tough first half.

Verdict: Reds (+9.5) 9/10

This should be an absolute blockbuster. I reckon the Blues will take the win her but not by much.