Written by Damien Kayat for @Hollywoodbets.
Barcelona vs Manchester City | Wednesday 12 March | Camp Nou | 21:45
Barcelona’s shock defeat to Real Valladolid was followed by Manchester City’s barely comprehensible Cup exit against Wigan. City were clearly still in the warm glow of Capital One Cup glory as they creaked to their second consecutive defeat at the hands of lowly Wigan. Barcelona’s possession mantra looks somewhat staid with the evolution of Real Madrid and Bayern Munich as European heavyweights. Gerardo Martino and Manuel Pellegrini will both be looking for a night of European glory to assuage domestic blips.
To Win (90mins)
Barcelona 5/10
Draw 33/10
Manchester City 47/10
Barcelona
Lionel Messi has cut a slightly forlorn figure in recent times, having to drop progressively deeper in an effort to kick-start this European juggernaut. Their loss on the weekend was the first time since 2008-2009 that they have lost two consecutive away games in La Liga, and it was their third defeat in six games, having lost only one of the previous twenty-one. They were probably quite fortunate in the first game at the Etihad, as City greatly curtailed the efficiency of their passing game. Xavi and Iniesta have lost some of their telepathic understanding in recent weeks and will be looking to correct that this week.
The emergence of both Sanchez and Pedro will be putting a fair amount of pressure on Xavi, especially considering the form of Cesc Fabregas. Fernandinho excelled against Busquets and manager Martino will be hoping that the holding midfielder can gain some ascendancy in this fixture. Generally, betting against Barcelona at home in Europe is tricky business. But they seem to have lost some of their irrepressible swagger and could be in for a longer night than most expect.
Manchester City
Manuel Pellegrini’s desire for a spectacular domestic treble went out with little more than a whimper against lowly Wigan. But their performance against Barcelona in the first leg was an impressive indication of how far they have come in Europe at a performance level. Kolarov and Zabaleta will need to advance as often as possible without allowing Alba and Alves to rampage as they did at the Etihad. Demichelis’ dismissal will probably be beneficial to the side as the experienced defender lacked the pace to deal with the intricate interplay of Barcelona.
City have to go after the game and I believe Jovetic could be the man to partner Aguero up front, hamstring depending. They cannot afford to lose midfield ascendancy and will need to still proceed with a degree of caution. Nasri and Toure will need to fire on all cylinders following anaemic displays on the weekend. I feel that Fernandinho and Toure have the ability to attain supremacy in the midfield while Aguero can finally square off against Messi in a straight Argentinian shoot-out. City have probably got too much to do to ultimately get through, but I really feel that a glorious upset is on the cards.
VERDICT: Manchester City 47/10
Barcelona are a side in a state of relative decline while City seem to be building steadily towards a more holistic side. Does that mean we shall not be seeing Barcelona in the next round? I highly doubt that but what I do know is that City can be a tremendous side when their shackles are unleashed. Silva, Nasri and Aguero are akin to the Three Musketeers, while Toure is a force of nature when given the correct platform to launch. Expect a strangely subdued qualification for a Barcelona side lacking impetus. If you’re not quite brave enough to take City on the outright, consider over 3.5 goals at 11/10.
The man knows his football, but even he gets it wrong from time to time. Feel free to share your view below.
