Daimen Kayat shares his outright preview of the women's draw at the 2021 US Open.
2021 WTA Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
US Open Championships- Women’s Preview
USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Centre, New York
30th August- 12th September
Much of this year’s pre-event oxygen has been sucked up by Novak Djokovic’s quest for the calendar Grand Slam. That’s to be expected considering the enormity of that particular feat. But I personally feel more excited by this year’s women’s draw. Speaking of rewriting the history books, Serena Williams will sadly not be part of the melodrama this week (both Williams sisters have been forced to withdraw due to injury). You wonder how many more chances Serena will have of matching Margaret Court’s record haul of 24 Grand Slam titles. I say that because this is perhaps the first time in my memory that Serena isn’t the woman commanding the spotlight. For better or worse, Naomi Osaka is clearly the name on everyone’s lips (despite the fact that Ashleigh Barty has tightened her stranglehold on the World Number One ranking this year).
The Favourites- Naomi Osaka and Ashleigh Barty
Look, I don’t really want to weigh in on Osaka’s controversial decision to eschew regular press junkets. This issue is so polarizing and doesn’t seem to offer much middle ground. Either you think she’s an entitled prima donna or a champion for mental health advocacy. The truth is probably neither as damning or glorious as either of those conclusions. One thing’s for sure, the entire hoopla has certainly affected her tennis: she is 5-5 in her last ten matches. But the four-time Grand Slam champion has been an absolute beast on tennis’ biggest stages. Since the start of the 2018 US Open, Naomi Osaka is 33-2 at the hardcourt majors. Let that frightening statistic reverberate around your head for a moment. I think the two-time US Open champ has every chance of going deep this year- despite form. It will be interesting to see how she reacts to the energy of a capacity Arthur Ashe Stadium. She was clearly demoralized by the lack of atmosphere in Tokyo and may just need the bedlam of New York to set her mind at ease.
I would personally feel slightly frustrated if I were Ashleigh Barty. The World Number One has been electrifying in 2021, cementing her status as the world’s best player with magnificent all-court tennis. Barty has won five titles this year, compiling an imposing year-to-date record of 40-7. She won her 2nd Grand Slam title at Wimbledon and she has picked up two WTA 1000 titles on hardcourts (Miami and Montreal). In Montreal she resembled Serena in her pomp, not dropping a set in a truly awe-inspiring display. Yet, Barty still can’t seem to wrestle the limelight away form Ms Osaka. Fortunately, Barty doesn’t seem to be a limelight type of girl. She just seems focused on becoming the best player she can be- as trite as that may sound. The women’s seedings have been a notoriously fickle barometer for measuring potential success in recent years (just look at Barbora Krejcikova and Jelena Ostapenko). But I would be massively surprised if one of these players never made it through to this year’s final.
The Best of the Upper Deck- Karolina Pliskova and Barbora Krecikova
The general unpredictability of women’s tennis makes this a hard proposition. Outside of Barty and Osaka, which of the other players in the current top 10 have the best chance of winning this title? I’ve been deeply disappointed by Aryna Sabalenka this season. She just seems to lack the mental fortitude to withstand the Grand Slam pressure at this stage. Bianca Andreescu has fallen off the form cliff while Iga Swiatek hasn’t been much better. I also think that Elina Svitolina lacks the ruthlessness to truly contend for a Grand Slam title (she needs to get a little nastier if she wants to mix it with the big girls). Sofia Kenin will miss out due to injury this year while Simona Halep’s participation is also shrouded in injury doubt.
Karolina Pliskova is my first pick in the upper echelons of the markets (Barty and Osaka notwithstanding). Long touted as an inevitable Grand Slam champion, the former World Number One has struggled with unrealistic expectations throughout her Grand Slam career. Despite many disappointments, Pliskova has reached the semi-finals or better of at each Grand Slam venue. The 2016 US Open finalist reached her 2nd Grand Slam final at Wimbledon earlier this year. But it’s her consistency this year that really impresses me. Pliskova and Barty are the only women to reach finals on all three surfaces this year. Granted, Pliskova is yet to taste victory this season. But the Czech has looked excellent on the North American hardcourts, reaching the final in Montreal prior to a semi-final run in Cincinnati. I think that she could benefit from being very much under-the-radar these days (that performance at Wimbledon seems to second that).
Fellow Czech Barbora Krecikova has been the breakout star of 2021. She began the year ranked 65 and is currently ranked 9. She has won three titles including her maiden Grand Slam title in Paris. That Roland Garros win is particularly significant given the slowness of Flushing Meadows in recent years: it really has played similarly to clay. She will unbelievably be making her US Open main draw singles debut this year. Krecikova will be undaunted and should play with the freewheeling style that has come to define her year. She already has a WTA 1000 final on hardcourts this year (Dubai). She is also in great form, arriving with a record of 8-2 in her last ten matches. A renowned doubles practitioner, Krecikova is able to mix cunning net play with amazing bursts of aggression.
Dark Horses- Maria Sakkari and Danielle Collins
As I have always noted, there’s more than just a shade of Amelie Maursemo in Maria Sakkari. The powerfully built Greek has the abiltiy to outmuscle her opponents with relative ease. She just needs to contain her unforced errors count. The Greek hasn’t exactly arrived in New York in devastating form: she is 5-5 in her last ten matches. But she has reached a Grand Slam semi-final in Paris this year, ending Iga Swiatek’s Roland Garros winning streak in the process. Sakkari also reached her 3rd WTA 1000 semi-final in Miami, thrashing Naomi Osaka and underlining her hardcourt potential. Sakkari can rack up the ace count and could provide a real threat in this year’s draw. What a time it is to be a Greek tennis supporter, with Sakkari and Stefanos Tsitsipas offering genuine title interest in either draw.
Danielle Rose Collins is surely one of the most inspiring narratives of this year’s tournament. She underwent surgery in May for endometriosis (she had a cyst the size of a tennis ball removed from her ovary). She has been simply brilliant since her return, winning back-to-back titles in Palermo and Los Cabos. Her form figures read 8-2 in her last ten matches. The 2019 Aussie Open semi-finalist should be primed for a concerted US Open push. She is guaranteed to receive unadulterated love from the New York faithful this fortnight and should represent great dark-horse value.
Outsider- Madison Keys
File this one way under the speculative category. Madison Keys comes into the US Open with virtually no form to speak of. The American enters this year’s event on the back of four consecutive losses (never the greatest sign). But she just possesses that innate ability to turn it on at Grand Slam level. Her overall career win percentage on tour is around 64%. That increases to 70% in Grand Slam tennis. She possesses an imposing 24-9 record at Flushing Meadows, reaching both a semi-final and final in the past. In fact, Keys reached the 4th round or better here for five consecutive years (2015-2019). She also has semi-final runs at the Aussie and French Opens. Look, her opening match is a bit of a stinker. She will need to beat Sloane Stephens in a repeat of the 2017 final. But I think she could cause a few scares if she survives that encounter. As for Stephens, I’m not sure if she still has the appetite to go deep in a Slam.
