Damien Kayat shares his thoughts and betting tips as Huberty Hurkacz faces Jack Draper and Quinwen Zheng takes on Yulia Putintseva in round of 64 at the Madrid Masters.
2024 ATP Tour/WTA Tour
Masters 1000/WTA 1000
Mutua Madrid Open
La Caja Magica
Selected Ro64 Matches – 26 April
Masters 1000
Hubert Hurkacz 54/100 | Jack Draper 14/10
Big-serving Pole Hubert Hurkacz looks hugely motivated to make a proper splash on clay this season. Renowned for being one of the best hardcourt operators out there, Hurkacz usually surrenders ATP rankings points during this portion of the season.
But he has taken to clay wonderfully this season, claiming a maiden ATP clay-court title at the Estoril Open. In fact, that was the first time in his career that he registered a clay-court semi-final appearance! The reigning Shanghai Masters champion can’t generally bulldoze his opposition with his serve on clay.
He also tends to hit the ball quite flat and can become a tad one-dimensional. He lost to Casper Rudd in Monte-Carlo- no shame in that- and he will be looking for a fast start in Madrid. This event is played at altitude and the surface tends to play a lot quicker than most of the other premium clay-courts. That should suit the Pole and his megawatt delivery.
I really hope that we get to see 22-year-old Jack Draper fulfil his potential. His recent string of injury setbacks has been analogous to veterans like Nadal or Murray. The uber-talented pinup star has long been touted as Andy Murray’s heir-apparent.
He looked excellent towards the end of last season, reaching the fourth round of the US Open before finishing runner-up at the Sofia Open. He carried that form into this season, reaching yet another final in Adelaide.
He then reached a maiden ATP 500 semi-final in Acapulco only to retire due to an unspecified illness. He disappointed at the ‘Sunshine Double’ but there have been signs of a mini resurgence on clay. He narrowly lost to Hurkacz in his Monte-Carlo opener and he just reached the quarter-finals in Munich.
There is no reason why optimum Draper shouldn’t compete on clay. Sure, his movement may not be elite. But he generates heavy topspin on that lefty forehand and his ability to his craft crosscourt angles gives him options from the back of the court.
He just survived a bit of a scare against big-serving Thanasi Kokkinakis. But that match could have been the ideal trial run for this tough examination.
Verdict: Hurkacz to win in straight sets 14/1
Hurkacz’s victory over Draper in Monte-Carlo took him to a 3-1 lead in their head-to-head rivalry. Having said that, all three of the Pole’s wins have gone to three sets. Furthermore, Draper thrashed the Pole in straight sets at last year’s US Open (their biggest meeting yet).
I think this could turn out to be pretty routine for the Pole. As I said, these courts aren’t like the Monte-Carlo quicksand and should suit Hurkacz’s flatter trajectory.
WTA 1000
Qinwen Zheng 39/100 | Yulia Putintseva 39/20
Chinese star Qinwen Zheng was left frustrated in Stuttgart last week, surrendering a one-set lead against eventual finalist Marta Kostyuk. Zheng has enough credit in her clay-court bank to suggest that she could do well this fortnight.
The Chinese made an early career statement with a fourth-round run at the 2022 French Open. She won her maiden career title in Palermo last year and would also reach the quarter-finals in Rome. Her rise has been meteoric over the past six months or so.
She followed a quarter-final run at the US Open with a brilliant runner-up finish at this year’s Aussie Open. But Zheng hasn’t looked herself in recent weeks, going 1-3 in compelted matches since a quarter-final run in Dubai. Can she rediscover her mojo on the Madrid clay?
29-year-old Kazakh Yulia Putintseva has developed a little bit of a cult following over the years, with many fascinated by her explosive on-court diatribes and over-the-top celebrations. But there is no doubting her aptitude for clay-court action.
The counterpunching scrapper is a two-time French Open quarter-finalist (2016, 2018) and both of her career titles have come on clay. She has struggled to maintain any real consistency throughout her career. But a strong showing at this year’s ‘Sunshine Double’ showed us what she is capable of.
She beat the likes of Keys and Alexandrova en route to the final 16 of the Indian Wells Masters. She then improved to a quarter-final finish in Miami. She just saw off Yuan in straight sets and I think she will be very competitive if she can replicate that ‘Sunshine Double’ form.
She is an excellent defensive player with the ability to play well-disguised drop-shots.
The Verdict: Putintseva to win in three 56/10
The Kazakh leads the head-to-head 1-0, seeing off the Chinese star in three sets at last year’s French Open. This is a really nice matchup for the Kazakh. Putintseva wins an extremely high percentage of points on her first-serve return and Zheng relies on her serve to win plenty of cheap points.
