Our tennis writer looks at three of the most intriguing Round of 32 matches from the 2018 French Open.
Diego Schwartzman 21/20 | Borna Coric 7/10
11th seed Diego Schwartzman rose to prominence last season and pushed Nadal in a tough four set thriller in Melbourne at the start of the year. That’s what made his enormous dip in form so baffling. That victory in Rio aside, Schwartzman has struggled to find any consistency in his game. First round defeats in Bavaria and Barcelona were only slightly bettered by Round of 32 exits in Monte Carlo and Rome. Ostensibly, Schwartzman- with his durability- should be a real force on clay. He has had a dream draw thus far and rightfully overcame Hemery and Pavlasek.
The extremely talented youngster Borna Coric has shown that there will be life after Djokovic for Serbian tennis. He has had a far tougher draw, needing four sets to overcome both Fabbiano and Philip Kohlschreiber. Coric reached the quarterfinals in both Dubai and Miami but also had that scintillating run to the semis in Indian Wells. He has been slightly unfortunate on the clay thus far, losing to an inspired Djokovic in Monte Carlo before pushing clay-court aficionado Dominic Thiem to three sets in Rome. Coric is one of the most exciting prospects on tour and his trajectory seems utterly opposite to Schwartzman.
7/10 looks even more appealing for Coric when you look at the head-to-head stakes. Coric leads in that department 2-0, which included a clay-court victory last season. Schwartzman has been on a dire run and I have to opt for the Serb here.
Kyle Edmund 8/10 | Fabio Fognini 19/20
This one looks set to be an intriguing battle between youth and experience. 31 year-old Fognini is archetypal clay-court player and his wins over Ymer and Andujar have displayed that thus far. He just reached the semis in an admittedly weak Geneva event, but his quarterfinal run in Rome featured a victorious set against clay-court demigod Rafa Nadal. That broke a run of poor at the inception of the European clay-court season. He was typically impressive on the South American clay, winning in Sao Paolo and reaching the semis in Rio. The Italian has impressive durability and clay-courts smarts and it will take a dogged performance from Kyle Edmund to usurp him.
Edmund started the year in glorious fashion with that outrageous run to the semi-finals in a crazy Aussie Open. He has had subsequent battles with injury and his form has understandably suffered. But a run to the final in the Grand Prix Hassan II- played on clay- was a harbinger of a return. Though not electrifying, a Round of 16 run in Rome and quarterfinal appearance in Madrid bodes well for the young Brit. He had a tricky little start here, but he worked his way past both Fucsovics and De Minaur. He will need his wits about him as he takes on the crafty Fognini.
This will be the first time that these two have met, and I always tend to favour the more experienced player in that event, especially on clay. Edmund has the all-court game that could challenge on this court, but I think Fognini’s expertise should be enough to dispose of the Brit this weekend.
Steve Johnson 3/1 | Marin Cilic 2/9
This one has the good fortune to be my upset special for the week. Marin Cilic is clearly the real deal. The former US Open Champion and this year’s Aussie Open finalist has shown he has the chops for the biggest stage. But his form since Melbourne has been sporadic at best, with an excellent semi-final run in Rome the only thing saving it from utter mediocrity. He has enjoyed an anaemic draw thus far, beating Hurkacz and Duckworth in the opening rounds. So while clay may not be his best surface, there is no doubting he is the favourite. But when one takes a closer look at his opponent it becomes obvious that my belief for a potential upset here is not merely a flight of fancy.
Steve Johnson has come through a far tougher examination thus far, beating Adrian Mannarino and Struff in his opening encounters. He just came off a semi-final run at a reasonably weak event in Geneva, though that would have been ideal preparation going into this event. The thing about Steve Johnson that sets him apart from compatriots likes Isner is that clay is his specialist surface. A two-time defending US Men’s Clay Court Championship winner, Johnson has the all-court game that isn’t based on pure power. Just this year he beat the likes of Isner, Sadngren and Tiafoe en route to that victory in Houston.
Cilic does lead the head-to-head between the two players 4-0. But this will be the first time the pair have met on clay. I just think that Johnson has a lot to offer at 3/1 to this weekend and would pull off a massive upset in the process.
Written by Damien Kayat for @Hollywoodbets.net
