We’re into the quarter-finals at the 2024 edition of the men’s French Open as World No. 1 Novak Djokovic faces Casper Rudd while Alex Zverev goes up against Alex de Minaur.
2024 ATP Tour – Masters 1000
French Open
Stade Roland Garros
Selected Quarter-finals Matches – 4 June 2024
Novak Djokovic 1/1 | Casper Rudd 79/100
Serb World No.1 Novak Djokovic kept his hopes of a 25th Grand Slam title alive with a remarkable comeback win over clay-court specialist Francesco Cerundolo. It was yet another stunning chapter in the already storied history of the Serb.
He surpassed Roger Federer to become the all-time leader in individual Grand Slam match victories (370). It also marked the first time in 12 years that he has won back-to-back five-set matches (he memorably took down Musetti in the early hours of Sunday morning). But it has come at a huge potential cost, with slightly damp conditions resulting in Djokovic aggravating a knee injury.
The trainer came out four times during the match and the Serb has publicly said that he may not be able to take to the court again this week. I would always take Djokovic’s fitness proclamations with a grain of salt. He has often said he was practically dead only to suddenly look invincible in a semi-final.
He has been booed constantly this week and I think he would like nothing more than to defend this title in the face of relentless adversity. Next up he will face the man he beat so soundly in last year’s final: Casper Rudd.
I backed Casper Rudd in my pre-tournament analysis but that was before the draw had been announced. Still, if Djokovic isn’t 100% right, Norwegian Rudd is the type of relentless clay-court operator who could exploit it. A two-time beaten finalist here, Rudd hasn’t been without his own issues in Paris.
He enjoyed a bye in his opener before a nice comfy win over Alves. But he was pushed to the brink in a thrilling five-set match against Davidovich Fokina. But he looked really composed against an in-form Taylor Fritz, serving solidly and just dictating proceedings with his ridiculously reliable forehand.
Rudd leads the tour in wins this season (39) and with clay-court wins (20). He has won two titles on clay this season (in Barcelona and Geneva). But he also reached the Monte-Carlo Masters final, showcasing his ability to grind it out in extremely slow conditions.
The three-time Grand Slam finalist will look to take advantage of the fact that Djokovic has spent nine hours on court in the last three days (a fact not helped by some truly braindead scheduling).
The Verdict: Rudd to win in four 37/10
Djokovic handily leads the head-to-head 5-1. Having said that, Rudd won when they last met in this year’s Monte-Carlo semi-final. That performance will be key as Rudd looks to end Djokovic’s quest for further glory.
I don’t know, I really want to back the Rudd win. He was one of my pre-tournament options and that performance against Fritz was stellar. Add Djokovic’s injury status and you have a pretty solid basis for an upset. But I genuinely don’t know.
I’m going to stand by principle and opt for my pre-tournament pick. Rudd knows the rodeo here, finishing runner-up in each of the last two seasons. His metronomic hitting will pose a huge challenge if Djokovic’s knee is as troubled as he says it is.
Alex Zverev 38/100 | Alex de Minaur 39/20
Much like Djokovic, Zverev had to dig deep and win his second consecutive five-set match, taking down Holger Rune in another absurdly late finish in Paris. Victory in this match will see him register an impressive fourth consecutive French Open semi-final (he has never reached a final in Paris).
He also became just the sixth man to reach six French Open quarter-finals this century. But Rune definitely set the template for de Minaur going forward, flummoxing Zverev with his array of drop-shots and off-speed shots. Zverev’s victory really came down to one thing: his serve.
He enjoyed a first-serve percentage of 77% throughout the match and he has now extended his current winning streak to 11 matches (he won in Rome leading into this year’s event). He has been on court for nearly nine hours in his last two matches as he gears up to face the physically robust Alex de Minaur.
‘Speed Demon’ Alex De Minaur became the first Aussie in 20 years to reach the quarter-finals of the French Open after his four-set triumph over Daniil Medvedev. De Minaur just had the Russian’s number, running him ragged with his brilliant combination of drop-shots and lobs.
The Aussie went viral the other day after his comeback win against Struff, publicly identifying one young fan and saying that he was the reason for his progression. That has endeared him to the Paris faithful and he will receive fanatical support here.
Next, he will aim to become the first Aussie since Pat Rafter in 2007 to reach the semi-finals here. De Minaur has reached two finals this year, finishing runner-up in Rotterdam before claiming the title in Acapulco. He has thrived in the slower conditions in Paris, using his world-renowned pace to chase down absolutely everything.
The Verdict: Zverev to win in straight sets 17/10
Zverev holds an impressive 7-2 head-to-head advantage over de Minaur, beating the Aussie in their previous meeting at Indian Wells earlier this year. I know that de Minaur has been capturing the imagination with his easy charisma but something tells me that the German is going to come out and make light work of him.
He has been relying on his big serve to bail him out in his last two matches but I just have the feeling that his game will click into gear here. Zverev doesn’t stand as deep in the court as Medvedev and will play far less passively.
