We’re into the last 32 at the 2024 edition of the men’s French Open as Tommy Paul faces Francisco Cerundolo and Daniil Medvedev goes up against Tomas Machac.
2024 ATP Tour – Masters 1000
French Open
Stade Roland Garros
Selected Ro32 Matches – 31 May 2024
Tommy Paul 89/100 | Francisco Cerundolo 89/100
Tommy Paul is low-key one of the hottest players in men’s tennis right now. His authoritative straight-sets win over Fognini improved his post-Aussie Open record to 18-6. It all started with some solid form in minor events (he won in Dallas and finished runner-up at the Delray Beach Classic).
But it was his performances in two Masters 1000 events that really got my attention. Semi-final runs in Indian Wells and Rome- two of the slower surfaces you are likely to find- spoke to his ability to thrive on these types of surfaces. Paul has plenty of natural variation and moves deceptively well.
His use of slice and willingness to come to the net gives him natural variation that other American players seem to lack. And his victories over Cachin and Fognini were almost comically one-sided (he has dropped just nine games thus far). A former French Open junior champion, Paul seems to have all the ingredients to enjoy a deep run this year.
Francisco Cerundolo is really a prototypical South American clay-court specialist. He moves like he was born on the clay and everything offensive really centres around his massive forehand. He is yet to reach a final this season but did enjoy a semi-final run at the ATP 500 event in Rio.
But his best individual performance came in Madrid, where he absolutely rinsed Alex Zverev in straight sets to reach the quarter-finals. He enjoyed a solid run to the 4th round here last season, defeating Taylor Fritz before losing to Holger Rune in a dramatic 5th set tiebreaker. Can he equal that run with victory over Paul?
The Verdict: Paul to win in four 39/10
Paul leads a very tight head-to-head rivalry 3-2. But Cerundolo won most recently in Madrid (their only clay-court meeting). I do think that Paul looks like a different animal this week.
Those Madrid surfaces are quicker than these and Paul seems to have a preference for the slightly slower clay surfaces. That being said, this should be a gripping affair and I can envisage a four-set Fritz win.
Daniil Medvedev 37/100 | Tomas Machac 2/1
Daniil Medvedev got in ahead of the rain yesterday, with opponent Miomor Kecmanovic withdrawing in the 2nd set of their 2nd round clash. Medvedev was absolutely demolishing the visibly shaken Serb, using his depth and precision to maximum effect on Court Suzanne Lenglen.
The Russian never has much fanfare coming into the French. He is a textbook hardcourt specialist and any other success comes as a bonus. But you can’t deny that he has made some real strides on the dirt. He won in Rome last year and his victory over Kecmanovic took his 2024 clay-court record to 8-3.
His flatter hitting style will put him at risk against some of the more dynamic players. But he will feel quietly confident after an incident-free outing that afforded him the opportunity to get some much-needed rest. He is yet to win a title this year (coming agonizingly close in that heartbreaking Aussie Open final defeat to Sinner).
How on earth did Machac almost conspire to lose that match against Navone? He dominated the first two sets and was then subsequently hammered in the 3rd and 4th. He then romped home to victory in the 5th in one of the most schizophrenic five-set matches you will ever see.
It all came after a pretty routine first-round win over Borges. Still, this has been a very encouraging season for the young Czech. He was enjoying a pretty consistent- if unremarkable- campaign before a noteworthy quarter-final run in Miami. And he just showed some real clay-court growth with a runner-up finish in Geneva.
The result was all the more special because he took down Novak Djokovic en route to the final (though you never know how hard Djokovic is going in those warm-up events). Machac is a really aggressive, compact player with one of the more versatile backhands out there. He can create some insane angles with that shot and he will need to in order to counteract the sheer depth of Medvedev’s hitting.
The Verdict: Medvedev to win in four 26/10
Medvedev won their only previous meeting (a comfortable straight-sets win at the 2022 Indian Wells Masters). Machac has obviously matured a lot since then and he will look to find creative ways to keep Medvedev honest. Medvedev should theoretically represent a decent opponent for Machac.
The Russian stands so far back in the court that Machac can create those little crosscourt angles he likes. Still, Medvedev should be well-rested for this and he looked absolutely brutal against Kecmanovic.
