And then there were four! Carlos Alcaraz faces Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedef faces off against Tommy Paul in the semi-finals of the ATP Tour’s Indian Wells Masters. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 ATP Tour – Masters 1000
Indian Wells Masters
Indian Wells Tennis Garden,
Semi-finals Preview – 16 March 2024
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 5/4 | Jannik Sinner 6/10
This is the very definition of a blockbuster ATP Tour clash, with the winner ending the week as the World No.2. Current World No.2 Carlos Alcaraz is starting to look like the player that interrupted Novak Djokovic’s reign as World No.1.
He just avenged his Aussie Open quarterfinal defeat to Alex Zverev with a dominant straight-sets win, withstanding a rather surreal bee attack that actually forced a delay in proceedings. The result stretched Alcaraz’s Californian winning streak to 10 matches, and he has to be thrilled with the dynamic tennis he has shown this week.
His almost unparalleled physicality makes him the perfect fit for these slow, demanding surfaces. I have been saying it this entire fortnight; the windier it gets the more it reminds me of Roland Garros.
The Spaniard needed a strong week to reinvigorate his season and victory over current wunderkind Jannik Sinner would really make the mid-year Slams interesting.
The Jannik Sinner juggernaut has shown no sign of relenting this week and his straight-sets quarter-final win against Jiri Lehecka was a masterclass in understatement. He judged the blustery conditions perfectly, playing high-percentage tennis and forcing Lehecka into a smorgasbord of unforced errors.
It was the Italian’s 19th consecutive victory (a run that encompasses title runs at the Aussie and Rotterdam Opens). I love the fact that he has the maturity to alternate between ultra-aggressive first-strike tennis and more controlled tennis as per conditions.
He has won a stunning 36 of his last 38 matches and victory here will ensure that he improves on his semi-final run from last season. He is looking to add to the Masters 1000 title he won in Toronto last year and also to rise to World No.2 for the very first time in his career.
He currently has a focused on-court demeanour that reminds me of Roger Federer in his pomp.
Verdict: Alcaraz to win in three sets 4/1
Sinner holds a narrow 4-3 lead in their tour-level head-to-head rivalry. They are also deadlocked at 2-2 in outdoor hardcourt matches. The Spainard overcame the Italian in straight sets in last year’s Indian Wells semi-finals. But Sinner does have the current edge in form, dominating the Spaniard in their Beijing semi-final towards the end of last year.
I think I would be tempted to back Sinner if these were indoor conditions. But Alcaraz is starting to look every bit the incredible physical specimen that took the world by storm these last 18 months and I think he could have an edge in these conditions.
Daniil Medvedev 34/100 | Tommy Paul 43/20
Six-time Masters 1000 champion Daniil Medvedev produced another stellar performance to down a somewhat erratic Holger Rune in their quarter-final clash. Despite his claims that these courts are completely antithetical to his style, Medvedev continues to impresses in the desert following his runner-up finish last season.
I was quite surprised to learn that this will be his first Masters semi-final since his shock title run in Rome last year. The Russian will not only be aiming to win his sevnth Masters 1000 title this week, he will be aiming to win his seventh different Masters 1000 event (he is yet to win a Masters title twice).
That is quite a stunning stat that speaks to the consistency and versatility of the crafty Russian. I actually think it makes sense that he plays so well here (despite his flat hitting). The slow conditions make his customary deep stance a big plus here (I sometimes think his starting position is a tad too defensive in some events).
He really stood deep on Rune’s first-serve but was conscious to attack the baseline when he needed to.
Tommy Paul is playing some big-boy tennis in the desert this year. He just came through a roller-coaster of a match with in-form Casper Rudd, producing some quality tennis at the bookends of the match to reach a second career Master semi-final.
He hit an impressive 35 winners and tended to play the high-pressure moments really well, saving two break points when serving for the match in the third. It was his ninth career victory over a top ten player and his first since toppling then-World No.1 Carlos Alcaraz during his semi-final run in Toronto last year.
Paul will be aiming for his third final this season after winning in Dallas and losing to Fritz in the Delray Beach championship match. The 2022 Aussie Open semi-finalist is fast building a repertoire of solid big-event finishes and he will be hoping that his high-intensity, versatile game will be enough to see off the formidable Medvedev.
Verdict: Medvedev to win in three at 26/10
Medvedev leads their head-to-head rivalry 2-0, thrashing the American in their previous meeting at last year’s China Open. Paul is playing some really impressive tennis at the moment and I think his ability to vary his game could cause the Russian some issues. But Medvedev has looked extremely solid on serve this week and he has been quick to sort out minor in-game problems.
