We’re nearing the finale of the ATP Tour’s Indian Wells Masters. Damien Kayat previews the the quarter-final match-ups betweens Casper Rudd and Tommy Paul as well as Daniil Medvedev and Holger Rune.
2024 ATP Tour – Masters 1000
Indian Wells Masters
Indian Wells Tennis Garden
Selected Quarterfinals – 14 and 15 March
14 March 2024
Casper Rudd (9) (13/20) vs Tommy Paul (17) (12/10)
This is looking a little more like the Casper Rudd circa 2022. It’s easy to put Rudd into the clay-court specialist box. He’s been runner-up at the French Open in the last two seasons and nine of his ten career titles have come on clay.
But he was one of the most elite hardcourt players in world tennis in 2022, finishing runner-up at the US Open, Miami Open and ATP Finals. He is a brilliant defensive baseliner who has the ability to counterpunch effectively. But he plays his best hardcourt tennis when he looks to be a bit more aggressive.
That disappeared from his game last year and he never managed to reach a hardcourt final. But he has looked vastly improved on hard surfaces this year, reaching back-to-back finals in Los Cabos and Acapulco.
I was surprised to learn that he had never gone beyond the fourth round here before (especially given his brilliance on clay). But he has looked excellent this year, easing past Klein and Fils in his opening two matches before a gruelling win against Monfils.
He looks reenergized as we approach his preferred clay-court section of the year and he could be a dark horse this week.
Tommy Paul has negotiated a tricky little draw with ease and has looked utterly untroubled in California. He thrashed compatriot Alex Michelson before a straight-sets win against in-form Frenchman Ugo Humbert. He just saw off giant-killer Nardi in straight sets to reach a fourth career ATP 1000 quarter-final.
He reached the semi-finals in Canada last year and he has now reached the last 16 or better in this event in three of the last four seasons. The 2022 Aussie Open semi-finalist came into this year’s championships in fine hardcourt form, winning the Dallas title before going out to Fritz in the Delray Beach final.
He-like Rudd- seems to have a game well-suited to these courts. He isn’t your stereotypical big-serving American. He employs excellent footwork, hustling around the court to work opportunities for his killer forehand. He also uses his quick feet to approach the net way more than your average ATP Tour pro.
Verdict: Rudd to win in straight sets 16/10
Rudd leads the American 4-1 in the head-to-head stakes, comfortably seeing off Paul in their most recent meeting at last year’s Laver Cup. I think these two will be quite evenly matched and Paul will have the crowd firmly behind him. But Rudd just beat Monfils in three sets (I think he will be quite comfortable with being the ‘villain’).
Rudd has looked so solid in the last few weeks and I think he will just pick off Paul if he comes to the net. His groundstrokes have been thunderous and I think the Norwegian looks primed for another excellent season.
15 March 2024
Daniil Medvedev 43/100 | Holger Rune 7/4
Now it looks like Medvedev has truly shaken off some of those Melbourne demons. He has quite openly stated that these surfaces don’t really fit his MO. He generally hits the ball quite flat and these slow surfaces don’t give you much reward in that department.
But he defied expectations with a run to last year’s final and looks ready to repeat that feat this year. He eased past Carbelles Baena in his opener before a really tight tussle with Seb Korda. But his victory over Dimitrov was ruthlessness personified.
The Russian dropped just five points on his first serve in the entire match and he only committed a total of 13 unforced errors. It was his best overall performance since squandering a two-set lead in the Aussie Open final and he finally looks ready to exorcise some of those demons.
That’s exactly what Danish firebrand Holger Rune needed, a hardnosed victory to show he has the character to match his undeniable talent. He mounted a dramatic comeback to overcome home favourite Taylor Fritz and reach his fifth career Masters 1000 quarter-final.
He committed an astonishing 15 unforced errors in a horrendous opening set. Fritz commanded the court with his brand of first-strike tennis and Rune had to grow into the encounter. Rune actually saved a match point in the second set and that seemed to galvanize the Dane.
The combustible Rune has become a walking telenovela in recent months, with coaching drama and petulance taking precedence over performance. But he still managed to reach the Brisbane final and Acapulco semis and these Indian Wells surfaces seem very much to his liking.
He reached two Masters 1000 clay-court finals last year, showing an appreciation for playing slow, laborious rallies. His athleticism and shot-making bravura remind me of Carlos Alcaraz and this week could be where he really kickstarts his 2024 campaign.
Verdict: Rune to win in three 5/1
This will be just their 3rd career meeting. Rune won in Monte-Carlo last year only for the Russian to avenge that defeat with victory in the Rome final. I honestly think these two are quite evenly matched on these surfaces.
Medvedev has served well in the Californian desert while Rune’s movement has been impeccable all week. I just think that Rune might wear Medvedev down in these slightly slower conditions. He really looked fluid against Fritz in that final set, absorbing the American’s big serve with minimum fuss.
