The quarter-finals of the 2024 Italian Open continue as ALex Zverev faces Taylor Frtiz and Hubert Hurkacz squares off against Tommy Paul. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 ATP Tour – Masters 1000
Italian Open
Foro Italico
Selected Quarter-finals – 15-16 May
Wednesday 15 May
Alex Zverev 57/100 | Taylor Fritz 27/20
With Sinner and Alcaraz both nursing injuries and Djokovic and Medvedev already eliminated, Alex Zverev finds himself as the highest-ranked player left in the draw.
The men’s game is in state of flux at present and the big-serving German could be the man to benefit this week. He has looked brilliant in Rome, yet to drop a set in his last three matches. His victory over Borges saw him register three consecutive clay-court wins for the first time this season.
Zverev started the season with a heartbreaking semi-final loss at the Aussie Open. He enjoyed a solid ‘Sunshine Double’, reaching the quarters at Indian Wells and the semis in Miami. But his form dipped as the tour entered the clay-court phase of the season.
It’s been rather surprising given that Zverev has proven to be a real clay-court aficionado throughout his career. He has reached the French Open semis for the last three years running and is a two-time winner of the Madrid Open.
He also has strong history in this event, beating Novak Djokovic to claim the 2019 title (he would finish runner-up a year later). He is moving brilliantly on these sluggish Rome surfaces and he will take some beating.
Taylor Fritz- renowned for his booming serve and hardcourt pedigree- is enjoying a dream clay-court campaign. This is a man who- prior to this season- had never reached a clay-court final in his career.
He corrected that with an excellent runner-up finish in Munich. He then transferred that form onto a bigger stage, beating the likes of Baez and Hurkacz en route to the Madrid semis. And he just seems to be going from strength to strength in Rome.
He dispatched of Fognini and Korda with minimal fuss. But he needed to dig deep against the in-form Dimitrov, ultimately prevailing in an entertaining three-set match. He served brilliantly against the Bulgarian, raining down 13 aces and saving a litany of breakpoints.
A former French Open Junior runner-up, Fritz has more nuance to his game than one would think. Lest we forget, his sole Masters 1000 title came on those agonizingly slow Indian Wells courts back in 2022.
Verdict: Fritz to win in three 4/1
Zverev leads the head-to-head 4-3 (though this will be their first clay-court meeting). I don’t know why, but I feel quite bullish about a Fritz win here.
He has been serving brilliantly and has dug in admirably when matches have gone the distance. He just seems to have clicked into gear on clay and I can see him just edging the German in three.
Thursday 16 May
Hubert Hurkacz 62/100 | Tommy Paul 5/4
Lanky Pole Hubert Hurkacz has been another huge surprise on this year’s clay-court circuit. Like Fritz, the Pole hadn’t reached a tour-level clay-court final prior to this season. But he remedied that with a commanding victory at the Estoril Open.
He was defeated by inspired performances in Monte-Carlo and Madrid (by Rudd and Fritz respectively). But he has looked back to his best in Rome, overcoming clay-court specialist Sebastian Baez to progress to another Masters quarter-final.
That victory was significant in that it meant he became the 11th active player to have reached all nine Masters quarter-finals in his career. It was also just his second career win over a top-20 player on clay.
Hurkacz also probably brought Rafa Nadal’s glorious Rome career to an end earlier this fortnight. The serve has been absolutely pivotal to the Pole’s success in Rome. He hit 20 aces in his first two matches and he hit another 17 against Baez, winning an astonishing 84% of his first-serve points.
Big serving has been critical in this year’s event (perhaps a reflection of the slightly warmer conditions this year).
I thought that Tommy Paul would push Medvedev all the way in their round of 16 clash. I could never have anticipated that he would absolutely trounce the defending champion in such a dismissive manner.
Paul completely took Medvedev outside of his comfort zone, winning 16 points at the net against the baseline-hugging Russian. Medvedev was playing miles behind the baseline and Paul’s tactic worked a treat (he always looked like he was one step ahead of the Russian).
A former French Open Junior champion, Paul will be looking to reach his second Masters semi-final of the season following his brilliant run at Indian Wells. Paul probably has more natural variety than any other American player and he should actually possess a better clay-court record.
Verdict: Paul to win in straight sets 28/10
These two share the head-to-head spoils at one win apiece, with Paul winning their most recent meeting at last year’s Indian Wells Masters.
Paul’s thrashing of defending champion Medvedev makes me think that he can diffuse the power game of Hurkacz. Hurkacz has very few elite victories on clay and Paul’s insane variety and efficiency at the net could prove too much for him.
