The Mallorca Open continues this week as Gael Monfils faces Roberto Bautista Agut as Alex Michelson goes up against Sebastian Ofner. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 ATP Tour – ATP 250
Mallorca Open
Mallorca Country Club
Selected Quarter-final matches – 27 June
Gael Monfils 89/100 | Roberto Bautista Agut 89/100
The 37-year-old Gael Monfils has never really got to grips with grass courts throughout his illustrious career. Fundamentally a defensive baseliner, Monfils has probably lacked the aggression to really get the most out of his game on these slick surfaces.
He has had a pretty humdrum campaign (which tracks with a guy coming up on his 38th birthday). But he took some time off following his French Open exit and that seems to have done him the world of good.
He has been sensational in Mallorca, navigating tricky encounters with Thiem and Carballes Baena with marvellous ease. His opener against Thiem was his first grass-court match in three years (and against an opponent he had never beaten in six attempts).
But he dominated that encounter, hitting 13 aces and winning 90% of his first-serve points. He produced similar numbers against Carballes Baena, winning 87% of his first-serve points and firing down 9 aces.
He has hit a staggering 52 winners with just 19 unforced errors in his first two matches. His ageing body has almost forced him into playing the type of first-strike tennis that is necessary on grass.
Gael Monfils isn’t the only grizzled veteran who has turned back the hands of time this week. 36-year-old Spaniard Robert Bautista Agut has enjoyed a similarly esteemed career but he came into this week’s Mallorca Championship with very little momentum to speak of.
But he just pulled off arguably the biggest surprise of the tournament, taking down second seed Ugo Humbert in a thrilling three-set comeback win. Bautista Agut was regularly outmuscled from the back of the court in the early stages and he had to really grow into the match.
His consistency wore down the Humbert, who succumbed to a slew of errors in the decisive set. This will only be Bautista Agut’s 2nd quarter-final of the season and he will be quietly confident going into it.
Bautista Agut hits the ball much flatter than most of his Spanish contemporaries and he has enjoyed a pretty solid grass-court career. He reached the semi-finals at Wimbledon back in 2019 and he also finished runner-up in this event two years ago.
Oh, and he also won a grass-court title at the Libema Open back in 2014. This should prove to be a fascinating match between two underrated warriors from the last 15 years.
The Verdict: Monfils to win in straight sets at 2/1
Monfils actually possesses a comprehensive 4-1 head-to-head superiority over the Spaniard.
Having said that, this will be their first meeting in five years. Bautista Agut clearly has the superior grass-court pedigree but Monfils has looked like a different person this week.
Those winners/unforced errors stats are elite and I think the Frenchman could win comfortably if his serve remains solid.
Alex Michelsen 71/100 | Sebastian Ofner 11/10
19-year-old Alex Michelsen looks like he has what it takes to go far in the game. The lanky American has a booming serve and decisive backhand (not to mention a willingness to come to the net).
Those traits came to the fore towards the end of last season, where Michelsen reached the Newport final en route to a US Open wildcard appearance.
He began this season with a maiden Major third-round run at the Aussie Open and he has picked up several nice results since then (the highlight being a maiden top-10 win against de Minaur in Los Cabos).
And he created a nice little bit of history this week, becoming the youngest man to ever win a main draw match with his opening victory over Nuno Borges. He followed that up with an even more impressive straight-sets win over third seed Adrian Mannarino (avenging his defeat in last year’s Newport final).
28-year-old Austrian Sebastian Ofner hasn’t been able to get things going this season after a breakthrough 2023 campaign. He was a beast at Challenger level last season, reaching six finals in the calendar year.
That included a runner-up finish at the Ilkley grass-court Challenger in June. He reached the fourth round of the French Open and would reach a tour-level semi-final in Astana towards the end of the season.
And he seemed to have brought that form into this season, reaching the semi-finals in Hong Kong to kick off the year. But his form has plateaued since then (though it was somewhat salvaged by a third-round run at the French Open).
Ofner plays his best tennis on clay but he has looked pretty compact this week, grinding past Munar in his opener before a more comprehensive victory over 5th seed Darderi.
The Verdict: Michelsen to win in straight sets 33/20
Michelsen actually beat the more experienced Ofner in straight sets when they met at last year’s Winston-Salem Open. And I wouldn’t expect anything different here.
Michelsen is serving thunderously and his ability to pick off points at the net should give him the edge over the more static Ofner.
