The ATP Tour’s Maimi Open’s round of 64 continues this weekend with Nicolas Jarry facing Jack Draper on Friday and Alex Zverev takes on Felix Auger-Aliassime on Saturday. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 ATP Tour – Masters 1000
Miami Open
Hard Rock Stadium
Selected Round of 64 Matches – 22-23 March
Nicolas Jarry 23/10 | Jack Draper 32/100 (Friday 22 March)
28-year-old Chilean Nicolas Jarry has really come into his own over the past 12 months or so. Nominally a clay-court specialist, Jarry’s ultra-aggressive approach started to get some hardcourt traction towards the end of last season.
He won both his titles on clay last season but he picked up a slew of highly creditable quarter-final runs towards the end of the year. They were highlighted by his maiden Masters quarter-final appearance at the Shanghai Masters.
Jarry is fearless, leaning on a big serve and outrageous forehand to pummel players into submission. The problem with that approach is that it can become a tad predictable. And Jarry has struggled to really impose himself on tour this year.
Sure, he did reach another final in Buenos Aires. But it’s really hard to extrapolate much from those South American clay-court events. He is 1-3 on hardcourts for the year and he could do with a decent showing here. It could change his season’s trajectory as we head towards the European clay-court swing.
Jack Draper bounced back from his shock first-round exit at Indian Wells with a comprehensive shellacking of Taro Daniel. The rising Brit won a staggering 97% of first-serve points in a commanding performance that generated 25 winners.
He has been dealing with persistent injury issues for some time (he was forced to withdraw from his Acapulco semi-final with de Minaur due to an undisclosed illness). But you can’t deny his ability when everything is clicking.
A US Open quarter-finalist last year, Draper reached his first two ATP Tour finals either side of the New Year. And he looked brilliant in Acapulco before his body intervened. I do have my concerns. The humidity has been stultifying in Miami and that will exacerbate any lingering physical concerns going forward.
Draper has suffered from all manner of cramps in the past and this will certainly test his conditioning. He could do with another dominant, serve-driven performance to help ease his body into this tournament.
Verdict: Draper to win in straight sets 19/20
This will be the first career meeting between these two. You always have to take a Jack Draper prediction with a pinch of salt (such is his recent injury record).
But I can’t look past how impressive he was against Taro Daniel. His crosscourt backhands are a thing of beauty and I think he will have too much variety for the Chilean.
Alex Zverev 44/100 | Felix Auger-Aliassime 7/4 (Saturday 23 March)
This would have looked like a plausible future World No.1 rivalry a few years ago. Alex Zverev looked like he was ready to break his Grand Slam duck at this year’s Aussie Open, leading the durable Medvedev by two sets in the Aussie Open semi-finals.
But he somehow conspired to lose that match and I think that really affected the German. He returned to action in Los Cabos a month later, losing to the nuggety Jordan Thompson in the semi-finals. He then inexplicably lost to Dnaiel Altmaier in Acapulco.
Zverev should not be losing back-to-back matches to Jordan Thompson and Daniel Altmaier. Carlos Alcaraz ended Zverev’s encouraging Indian Wells run, blasting the German away to avenge his Aussie Open defeat.
Zverev has slowly moved back within striking distance of the top players and a strong showing this fortnight will set up his season wonderfully. Zverev reached the final of this event during its last renewal at Key Biscayne. He should prefer these courts to the embarrassingly slow ones in California. Zverev is at least within touching distance of the very top players.
Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime doesn’t even have them in his sights. It’s quite sad to see how much he has regressed over the past few years. He just struggled with the weight of expectation. He defended his Swiss Indoors title last year but he also lost three Grand Slam first-round matches.
He reached the semi-finals in Montpelier earlier this year but he has really struggled since. He has just become too one-dimensional, relying almost solely on his forehand wing to produce winners (his backhand wing is severely underperforming).
Auger-Aliassime reached the semi-finals here back in 2019 and he will be hoping to draw on some of that magic this year. He needs it.
Verdict: Zverev to win in three sets at 26/10
Zverev leads their head-to-head 5-2. The German won their last meeting at the 2022 Madrid Masters. Auger-Aliassime is a clear underdog but this match could be more competitive than most people think.
Zverev has been extremely inconsistent himself and Auger-Aliassime is an undeniable talent. Zverev pulling through in a cagey three-setter look plausible to me.
