Hubert Hurkacz faces off against Grigor Dmitrov and Alex Zverev faces Karen Khachanov in the round of 16 at the ATP Tour’s Miami Open. Damien Kayat shares his betting tips for the two games.
2024 ATP Tour – Masters 1000
Miami Open
Hard Rock Stadium
Selected Ro16 Matches 26 – 27 March
Tuesday 26 March
Hubert Hurkacz 89/100 | Grigor Dimitrov 89/100
Hubert Hurkacz survived a real scare to overcome crowd favourite Seb Korda in a thrilling round of 32 encounter. It turned into a real serveathon, with both players serving 10+ aces and winning over 80% of their first serve points. But the Pole ultimately prevailed to set up this juicy round of 16 clash.
2021 Wimbledon semi-finalist Hurkacz has been a pillar of consistency in these Masters 1000 events, reaching the quarter-final stage or better in ten ATP Tour events dating back to the start of 2021. He has proven to be a bit of a Hard Rock Stadium specialist, winning the title back in 2021 before another creditable semi-final run in 2022.
He hasn’t been in the greatest form since losing to Daniil Medvedev in the Aussie Open quarter-finals. But he has proven to be a regular fixture in these Masters events and clearly loves these quickening conditions. I think it’s a bit unfair to label the Pole a servebot.
He moves deceptively well for someone his size and he has absolutely wonderful touch at the net.
This has been a glorious late-career surge from the effortlessly stylish Grigor Dimitrov. Victory over Hurkacz would secure a third quarter-final berth in four Masters 1000 events (including a runner-up finish at last year’s Paris Masters).
He won in Brisbane to start the year and his emphatic round of 32 demolition of Hanfmann improved his 2024 record to 17-4. The Bulgarian just seems to be playing with the shackles off, unburdened by the insane weight of expectation that was levelled on him at a young age.
He has more variation than Hurkacz, using a variety of slices to help him regain his composure during extended rallies. He also isn’t afraid of attacking the net to put his opponent under pressure. I expect him to target Hurkacz’s erratic forehand wing (especially when he straightens out that beautiful single-handed backhand).
Verdict: Hurkacz to win in straight sets 2/1
Dimitrov holds a commanding 4-0 head-to-head advantage over the Pole (including two wins last season). So, it feels a bit counterintuitive to back the Pole in straight sets. Dimitrov’s variety of off-speed shots have befuddled him in the past.
I just feel like these faster Miami surfaces play right into the Pole’s wheelhouse. He has a magnificent recent record in this event and I think he will finally break his duck against the Bulgarian.
Tuesday 27 March
Alex Zverev 9/20 | Karen Khachanov 17/10
Alex Zverev is putting on a serving masterclass in Miami. He faced a potentially tricky Round of 64 encounter with underachieving Felix Auger-Aliassime. But he barely gave the Canadian a sniff, landing 74% of his first serves and winning 93% of those points.
But he was even more efficient on his 2nd serve, winning a staggering 100% on his ‘weaker’ delivery. He was equally impressive last time out against Eubanks, landing 78% of his first serve points and winning 13 of 16 2nd serve points.
That means the German has won 23 of 26 points on second serve in this tournament. Zverev’s form has been erratic since that disappointing Aussie Open semi-final collapse against Medvedev (he lost back-to-back matches against Thompson and Altmaier).
But a quarter-final run- in unfavourable conditions- at Indian Wells seems to have steadied the ship. He looks determined in Miami, taking advantage of slightly quicker conditions as he seeks his maiden ‘Sunshine Double’ title. That serve is looking nigh on impenetrable and he will take some stopping this week.
Karen Khachanov must have had a feeling of déjà vu in his epic three-set victory over Francisco Cerundolo. The dynamic Russian threw away five match points in a gruelling defeat to Lehekca in Dubai earlier this season.
And he stood on the precipice of repeating that collapse, dropping his first four match points against the plucky Argentine. But he got the job done at the fifth time of asking, showing the type of grit and resilience that defined his back-to-back Grand Slam semi-final runs in 2022 and 2023.
Khachanov always seems to pick up a niggle or two and he hasn’t always maintained the level of consistency that he would like. But he did win his sixth title in Qatar earlier this year. Khachanov is really like a slightly inferior version of Zverev, relying on a huge serve and dynamic forehand to play incisive first-strike tennis.
But he also has the ability to grind out results and that will come in handy against Zverev’s imposing serve. Khachanov reached the semi-finals here last season, showing that he is a good fit for these quickening Miami surfaces.
Verdict: Zverev to win in straight sets at 12/10
Zverev leads a tight head-to-head rivalry 3-2. The German won in straight-sets when they last met in the Olympic Gold Medal match. And I suspect a similar result here.
Zverev is serving at an impossible level and Khachanov is not really the greatest returner out there. Khachanov also tends to telegraph his forehand too much and this should give Zverev opportunities n these courts.
