The prestigious Wimbledon Championships returns to the All England Club. Damien Kayat has a look at the top contenders, midtier choices and longshot options.
South Africans of a certain vintage will often point towards the 1995 Rugby World Cup victory as their formative sporting moment. For me, it was Goran Ivanisevic defying the odds to win Wimbledon as a wildcard back in 2001.
2024 WTA Tour – Grand Slam Tennis
Wimbledon Championships
All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club
1 – 14 July
I remember watching the whole event transfixed, determined that the Croat would prove naysayers like John McEnroe wrong. And I think that’s what I learned to love about tennis: the narrative.
That Grand Slam Championships are like these compelling stories created by the most unpredictable of writers. That being said, Wimbledon’s plotlines grew somewhat stale in recent years, with Novak Djokovic winning four consecutive titles from 2018-2022 (2020 being cancelled due to Covid).
The entire championship needed a change in direction and they got it last year, with Carlos Alcaraz defying the odds to beat ironman Djokovic in five glorious sets.
But neither Novak Djokovic nor Carlos Alcaraz will be coming into this year’s event as World No.1.
Jannik Sinner has been a sensation this year, providing an added dimension to the tantalising cross-generational rivalry between Alcaraz and Djokovic.
Elsewhere, the likes of Alexander Zverev and Stefanos Tsitsipas continue in their quest for an elusive Grand Slam title. Zverev has looked immense at the slams this season, putting aside his off-court drama to produce the most electrifying tennis of his career.
Daniil Medvedev is not a renowned grass-court operator but a semi-final run in last year’s edition will give him a degree of confidence going into this year’s championships.
Andy Murray hasn’t quite decided whether he will play or not following back surgery. In any event, the emergence of Jack Draper will give British tennis fans some tangible hope in the men’s draw.
Past Champions
- 2023: Carlos Alcaraz bt Novak Djokovic (1-6, 7-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-4)
- 2022: Novak Djokovic bt Nick Kyrgios (4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 7-6)
- 2021: Novak Djokovic bt Matteo Berrettini (6-7, 6-4, 6-4, 6-3)
- 2020: no event
- 2019: Novak Djokovic bt Roger Federer (7-6, 1-6, 7-6, 4-6, 13-12)
- 2018: Novak Djokovic bt Kevin Anderson (6-2, 6-2, 7-6)
Grass-court precursors this season
- Stuttgart Open: Jack Draper bt Matteo Berrettini (3-6, 7-6, 6-4)
- Libema Open: Alex de Minaur bt Sebastian Korda (6-2, 6-4)
- Halle Open: Jannik Sinner bt Hubert Hurkacz (7-6, 7-6)
- Queens: Tommy Paul bt Lorenzo Musetti (6-1, 7-6)
- Eastbourne International and Mallorca Championships: in progress
The Big Three
Jannik Sinner
Everything just seems to be pointing towards Jannik Sinner this year. Djokovic is obviously struggling for fitness and Alcaraz just lost to Draper in Queens.
Sinner had no such issue in his grass-court preparations, claiming his first-ever grass-court title in Halle. It was the fourth title in a magnificent season that has seen him hijack the World No.1 ranking.
He is currently 38-3 for the season and he seems to be firing on all cylinders. He has been improving at SW19 over the last few years, reaching the quarters in 2022 before a semi-final run last year.
His serve has become a potent weapon and I think he is undeniably my pre-tournament favourite.
Novak Djokovic
The tennis community waits with bated breath as Novak Djokovic races against the clock to prove his fitness ahead of these championships. He has been recovering from a torn meniscus and things still look a bit 50/50.
I read an interview with Taylor Fritz in which he said he recovered quickly from the same ailment on the eve of the 2021 Wimbledon Championships.
So, hope springs eternal. Djokovic will have a good chance of going deep even at 80% fitness.
A seven-time champion, Djokovic dominated this event for a period before losing in last year’s final to Carlos Alcaraz. The Serb is obviously approaching the twilight of his insane career but don’t be too surprised if he defies expectations once again this week.
Carlos Alcaraz
Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz won’t dwell too much on his recent defeat to Jack Draper. The Spaniard was just trying to get the feel of the courts after an incredible clay-court campaign that saw him crowned French Open champion (and youngest Surface Slam winner of all time).
He wasn’t even at his best in Paris, producing some tenacious displays when his A-game abandoned him.
But that’s what makes him so great: he can win in a multitude of ways. His 2022 US Open triumph was a feast for the senses and arguably one of the most entertaining Grand Slam wins in recent memory.
His victory in Paris was characterised by a steely-eyed determination that bodes well for his future greatness.
My Top-ten Picks
There are a few top-ten players I can dismiss offhand. Casper Rudd looks at sea on grass and has essentially waved the white flag by not turning up for any of the grass-court precursors.
Andrey Rublev is just mentally shot after all his Grand Slam quarter-final defeats and I can’t see him going too deep this year.
Daniil Medvedev did reach the semifinals last season but it was an incredibly forgiving draw and he just lost to Zhang in Halle. He likes to stand really deep in the court and I think that puts him at a disadvantage on these quick, low-bouncing surfaces.
There are two players I momentarily considered. Alex de Minaur is the flavour of the month after storming into the top ten in the world rankings.
De Minaur has proven himself to be an adroit grass-court operator, winning in Eastbourne in 2021 and reaching the Queens final last season. And he recently claimed a second grass-court title at the Libema Open.
I just don’t think he quite possesses the weaponry to make a big dent here.
I agonised over picking Grigor Dimitrov. The Bulgarian is a former Queens champion and a former Wimbledon semi-finalist. His single-handed backhand slice suits these courts beautifully and he has been in terrific form over the past twelve months.
Still, I have a sneaky feeling that all the recent tennis may catch up to him this fortnight.
Alex Zverev
My first selection has to be Alex Zverev. Sure, the German doesn’t exactly have an amazing grass-court pedigree. A two-time Halle runner-up, Zverev has incongruously never made it past the fourth round at SW19.
But he looks like a different player this season and it’s surely just a matter of time until he claims a maiden Grand Slam crown.
He reached the semi-finals in Melbourne and he lost to Alcaraz in an epic five-set Roland Garros final. He lost to Hurkacz in the Halle semi-finals last week but I think he will bring a different intensity in London.
He is serving better than he ever has and his volleying has come on in leaps and bounds.
Hubert Hurkacz
My other pick for a deep run this year is seventh seed Hubert Hurkacz.
One could make an argument that he has a more realistic chance of winning this title than compatriot Iga Swiatek. The Pole has one of the most dominant serves in the game and his ability to serve and volley gives him a distinct advantage on grass.
He has a very solid grass-court pedigree, reaching the Wimbledon semi-finals in 2021 and winning Halle in 2022. He just lost to Italian prodigy Jannik Sinner in a highly competitive Halle final and I think he could be poised for a brilliant fortnight.
The Mid-tier Choices
I’m actually not enthralled by many of the options ranked between 11-20. Stefanos Tsitsipas won in Mallorca in 2022 but apart from that he never looked comfortable on grass.
He recently lost to Struff in Halle and he has never gone beyond the fourth round at SW19. Felix Auger Aliassime is a former Wimbledon quarter-finalist and he has experienced a bit of a revival in recent months.
I still don’t see the Canadian mounting much of a challenge this year. Ben Shelton seems to have regressed in recent months while fellow lefty Ugo Humbert strikes me as a three-set specialist (much like Alexander Bublik).
Tommy Paul
My first selection in this group has to be Tommy Paul. He is the one player in this rogue’s gallery who actually comes into this event with some excellent recent form.
Paul has sneakily advanced up the rankings courtesy of some consistent tennis this season. He won in Dallas before losing in the Delray Beach final. But it was a pair of Masters 1000 semi-finals in Indian Wells and Madrid that really showed the world what he is capable of.
And he underlined his growing Wimbledon dark horse cred with a stunning victory at Queens, showing that he has the type of game that can prosper at SW19.
Paul doesn’t rely purely on power and loves to come to the net. He also has the ability to hit a variety of off-speed shots that make him less one-dimensional than your standard American player.
Taylor Fritz
Speaking of more one-dimensional American players, my next selection will be Taylor Fritz. I’m being a bit cheeky here because Taylor Frit is far from a one-dimensional player (he proved that by reaching his first clay-court final earlier this year).
But he does fall more squarely into the mould of your stereotypical American player. He serves like a demon and he has a ruthless forehand that wins him plenty of cheap points.
And there’s nothing wrong with that – especially on grass. Fritz is a two-time Eastbourne champ and he reached the Wimbledon quarter-finals back in 2022.
He won in Delray Beach earlier this year before losing that clay-court final in Munich. He has been pretty consistent all season and he could ride that serve deep into the second week.
The Longshot Options
Lorenzo Musetti
23-year-old Italian Lorenzo Musetti seems to be developing into a really sound grass-court practitioner. There were signs of this potential last season (he reached back-to-back quarter-finals in Stuttgart and Queens).
But he has come alive during this year’s grass-court swing, reaching the semi-finals in Stuttgart before a runner-up finish in Queens.
He has certainly adapted his game brilliantly to meet the demands of the surface, coming to the net more often and adopting a far more aggressive overall posture. Musetti isn’t about to win this title but I do think he has the game to cause a surprise or two.
Jack Draper
Jack Draper is really carrying British hopes squarely on his shoulders this year. I know that Emma Radacanu is already a Grand Slam champion and Boulter has been resurgent of late.
But Jack Draper is the one Brit- man or woman- who can mix it with the very best in business. He proved that in Queens, where he shocked reigning Wimbledon champ Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets.
Draper has long been touted as a potential top-5 player but his career has been railroaded by injuries. But he has come to life on the grass, winning his maiden tour title in Stuttgart before a quarter-final run at Queens.
His booming lefty serve has a shade of Ivanisevic to it and that double-handed backhand is a monstrous weapon. Let’s just hope that his body holds up to the rigours of this Grand Slam tournament.
