Damien Kayat previews today’s two fixtures coming your way from the ATP Nitto Finals, featuring Alex Zverez vs Diego Schwartzman and Novak Djokovic vs Daniel Medvedev.
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Alex Zverev 7/2 | Diego Schwartzman 11/4*Forecast betting
This is a must-win for both players following convincing opening round defeats. Alex Zverev is in a shocking place at the moment. The German star has had a breakthrough year at Grand Slam level. He reached his first Grand Slam semi-final in Melbourne before following that up with his first final in New York. He then won the Cologne double-header prior to reaching the Paris Masters final. Everything seemed to be going swimmingly for the star. But recent sexual assault allegations have rattled the poster-boy’s wholesome image. I guess it’s little wonder that he was so poor on court the other day. The 2018 champion will need to seriously up his game after a comfortable defeat to Danil Medvedev. Will he be able to drown out all the noise- justifiable though it may be- to win this match?
Diego Schwartzman will be feeling less pressure as this is his first Finals. The Argentine showed a real lack of firepower against Djokovic in the extended rallies. Having said that, he did create some opportunities in that first set that he failed to capitalize on. Schwartzman is free-rolling this week after barely scraping into the event (clearly aided by Roger Federer’s withdrawal). His last four events prior to this have been impressive. He reached the final in Rome prior to a semi-final run at Roland Garros. He then lost a final in Cologne prior to a quarterfinal run in Paris. Will he be able to take advantage of an obviously distracted Alex Zverev? This service should suit the German but their head-to-head record makes for interesting reading.
The head-to-head stats between the two read 2-2. Despite this, Zverev has won both of their matches on indoor hardcourts. Moreover, the Argentine has only taken nine games off the German in those matches. I think Zverev will be able to drown out the noise and win this in straight sets. It’s almost the perfect match for him at this point on this surface.
Novak Djokovic 2/5 | Danil Medvedev 2/1 *Forecast betting
Five-time champion Novak Djokovic started his quest for a record-equalling 6th ATP World Finals crown with a commanding victory over debutant Diego Schwartzman. Despite losing serve once he was able to break the Argentine four times. Djokovic currently holds a 40-3 win-loss record in 2020. But it’s almost as if those losses may register more strongly in the Serb’s memory bank. That infamous disqualification at Flushing Meadows was followed by a humiliating defeat to Nadal in Paris. He then lost to the unheralded Sonego in Vienna. There’s also the little matter of the Adria Tour fiasco to weigh into consideration. But Djokovic absolutely loves this surface, where he is able to use his catlike reflexes to their ultimate effect.
But in Danil Medvedev, Djokovic faces one of the rare opponents who can shrink the court in the same manner that he does. Medvedev understands that sometimes the best way to beat Djokovic is to bore him to death, hitting consistent baseline attacks rather than going for corners. Medvedev brushed aside Alex Zvrev with nonchalant ease in his opening match. He comes into this event off a huge win at the Paris Masters, recapturing some of the form that saw him dominate the latter stages of 2019. It was his first tournament year in what has been a poor 2020. His win-loss record in 2020 stands at a disappointing 24-10. It’s as if the Covid break came at the worst time for him.
The Serbian will understandably start as the favourite for this match. He leads the head-to-head with the Russian at 4-2. Their last match was a pulsating ATP Cup semi-final at the start of the year- a match widely hailed as one of the matches of the season. Medvedev actually won their previous two encounters predating that epic match.
The truth is Medvedev is one of the few players on tour who can consistently trouble the Serb. His two-handed backhand is one of the few backhands that can rival Djokovic. His Paris Masters win seems to have emboldened him and I predict Djokovic could lose his 4th match of the year.
Written by Damien Kayat.
