Garbine Muguruza takes on Paula Badosa before Anett Kontaveit faces Maria Sakkari in the WTA Finals Semi-Finals. Damien Damien Kayat previews.
2021 WTA Tour
Tour Championship
WTA Finals
Panamercian Tennis Centre, Zapopan, Mexico
Semi-Finals Preview- 16th- 17th November
Garbine Muguruza 5/4 | Paula Badosa 62/100
This is a fascinating all-Spanish clash, with the winner seeking to become the first Spanish finalist in this competition since Arantxa Sanchez Vicario in 1993. Earlier on in this covering this event I alluded to Muguruza’s excellent record in Mexico (she won back-to-back Monterrey Open titles in 2017 and 2018). She seems to thrive in these conditions and I predicted that she would grow into this event. And she has. She lost her opening round-robin match to Karolina Pliskova in three sets. She then dropped the first set against Barbora Krejcikova. With her WTA Finals hopes hanging by a thread, the ultra-competitive Muguruza came to the party. She has won four consecutive sets leading into this semi-final. She probably benefitted from the fact that Kontaveit had already qualified for the semi-finals entering their match. Still, Muguruza’s first-serve statistics have been insane in her two matches. Going back to the 3rd set of her victory against Krejcikova, she has won 45 of her last 54 first-serve points. She has extended her Mexican win-loss record to 12-2.
It has been some time since we have witnessed a legitimate challenger to Garbine Muguruza as the queen of Spanish tennis. But I think we may have found that person in 24-year-old Paula Badosa. Let’s look past her defeat against Iga Swiatek. That was the very definition of a dead rubber. But let’s look at the form leading into that match. Badosa had won eight consecutive matches before that essentially meaningless match. Moreover, she had only dropped two sets during that period. She landed her semi-final spot courtesy of brilliant straight sets victories against the more favoured pair of Maria Sakkari and Aryna Sabalenka. Key to her success this week has been a new-found aggression. Her big-serve and ability to mix it up with slice and kick-serves is obviously a big plus. But I think she has just found a little more self-belief in the wake of that awesome Indian Wells victory. The slowness of the courts obviously helps Badosa, allowing her to maximise the heavy topspin she generates on her forehand.
Verdict: Muguruza to win in three at 4/1
This glamour tie is going to be tight. Both of these players have been embraced by the locals and this match should have a sensational atmosphere. Muguruza has grown into this event and I think her superior hitting power will see her prevail against would-be usurper Badosa.
Anett Kontaveit | Maria Sakkari * betting tba
I don’t think that Estonian sensation Anett Kontaveit will be over-fussed by seeing her unbeaten streak broken. She had already qualified for the semi-finals when she took on Garbine Muguruza. That defeat ended a remarkable 12-match winning streak (one which saw her claim both the Transylvania Open and the Kremlin Cup). In fact, Kontaveit has won 28 of her last 31 matches. She has thrived on these slightly slower surfaces, using her backhand slice to remain in points in defensive positions. She has also improved markedly on serve, accumulating more free points than she would have a year ago. Perhaps that defeat came at the ideal time for Kontaveit. That aura of invincibility can sometimes prove burdensome when players find themselves in crunch positions. And this is without doubt the biggest match of Kontaveit’s career.
Can Sakkari now match Tsitsipas and become the first Greek woman to win the season-ending WTA Finals? You have to admire the character that was on display in that herculean effort against Sabalenka. Many would have folded after losing that agonizing 2nd set tiebreak. Sabalenka, the top seed, looked primed for an easy ride home. But Sakkari’s relentless display of raw hitting power was not to be outdone. The Greek’s rise to prominence has been a gradual one. But two Grand Slam semi-finals this year have certainly validated her quality. She has worked hard on the mental side of her game- a fact that she has been remarkably candid about. She really felt the impact of squandering a match-point in her French Open semi-final. But she now stands on the precipice of another huge final and this should be a fantastic encounter.
Verdict: Sakkari to win
These two just can’t seem to stop playing each other. This will be their 12th meeting, with Sakkari holding a slim 6-5 advantage. They have actually met four times this year, but that offers even less illumination at 2 wins apiece. Clearly, Kontaveit is the form player at present. But these semi-finals often defy expectations. And I think there was something potentially transformative about that Sabalenka victory. Sakkari has the serve and power to dominate anyone. I think that she is now starting to harness all the other intangibles. I think Sakkari could avenge her recent Ostrava Open final defeat at the hands of the Estonian. I couldn’t begin to speculate on the nature of the win. Perhaps it would be prudent just to opt for the outright Sakkari victory.
