We’re into the semi-finals of the 2024 Miami Open semi-finals as Jannik Sinner takes on Daniil Medvedev and Ekaterina Alexandrova faces Danielle Collins. Damien Kayat shares his betting preview.
2024 ATP/ WTA Tour – Masters 1000/ WTA 1000
Miami Open
Hard Rock Stadium
Semi-finals Preview- 29th March
ATP Tour
Jannik Sinner 38/100 | Daniil Medvedev 39/20
Jannik Sinner reached his third Miami Open semi-final in four seasons with a routine straight-sets win over the crafty Tomas Machac. Sinner was simply too good for Machac, breaking his opponent four times to improve his phenomenal 2024 record to 20-1.
He hit 16 winners to just 4 unforced errors in yet another virtuosic display. In fact, he has now hit 37 winners to just 11 unforced errors in his last two matches! Those numbers are beyond elite and reflect why he has to be the best player in the world at this moment in time.
Sure, Alcaraz got the better of him on the quicksand surfaces at Indian Wells. But these quicker surfaces are a different story, giving the Italian full value for his gargantuan groundstrokes. He is aiming to reach a third Miami final in four years and it’s hard to see anyone stopping him in this kind of form (Alcaraz included).
Next up for the Italian is the man he memorably beat in this year’s epic Aussie Open final: Daniil Medvedev.
Defending champion Daniil Medvedev made it ten consecutive Miami Open wins with a solid victory over the vastly improved Nicolas Jarry. Medvedev had to weather a Jarry onslaught in that second set, absorbing some truly massive hitting in a masterclass of patient counterpunching.
He hit 12 winners to just five unforced errors in the match, allowing Jarry to really dictate the tempo of proceedings. He served extremely well, winning 80% of his first-serve points in a really composed and focused performance. It will be interesting to see how far Medvedev chooses to stand behind the baseline against Sinner.
The Italian has a knack of finding insane crosscourt angles and Medvedev may need to adopt a slightly more attacking posture from time to time. It will also be fascinating to see how Medvedev deals with the scar tissue from this year’s Aussie Open final.
He will take some consolation from the fact that he beat Sinner in the final of this event last season. But Sinner is playing amazing tennis at present and Medvedev is going to need to be at his wily best to counteract him.
Verdict: Sinner to win in three sets 26/10
Medvedev leads the head-to-head rivalry 6-4. But look a little closer. Sinner has won their last four encounters (all played within the last six months). Three of those matches have gone all the way (most memorably at this year’s thrilling Aussie Open final).
Medvedev saw off the Italian in straight sets during last year’s final and he will be hoping to bank on that experience. This will be a tight one, with Sinner looking to force the issue while Medvedev hangs back and redirects when he can.
As I noted earlier, Sinner creates some fiendish crosscourt angles and Medvedev will need to be cognizant of that. Medvedev understands these surfaces and will put up a brilliant fight but I think Sinner still edges it.
WTA Tour
Ekaterina Alexandrova 11/10| Danielle Collins 69/10
The volatile WTA 1000 season has certainly shown no signs of letting up in Miami. 29-year-old Russian Ekaterina Alexandrova shocked the tennis world with her headline-grabbing upset victory over Iga Swiatek.
The ultra-aggressive Russian is known to blow hot and cold and not many people though she could replicate that success against the more metronomic Pegula. And Pegula seized the early initiative in their quarter-final clash, forcing the Russian into a cacophony of errors in that first set.
Alexandrova looked overawed by the occasion as she struggled to find any fluidity out there. But she stuck to her maximalist style and just bludgeoned Pegula into submission in the following sets, finishing with 40 winners and a staggering 61 unforced errors (which tells you everything you need to know about Alexandrova).
This will be just her 2nd career WTA 1000 semi-final and she will need to tighten up that error count if she stands any chance of progressing to a maiden final.
It’s slightly weird to see Danielle Collins in the role of sentimental favourite. The former Aussie Open finalist has suffered through multiple health issues over the years and has decided to call time on her career at the end of this season. But I wouldn’t say that she has always been warmly embraced.
Just look at the furore she caused in Montreal last year, telling Sakkari to shut up during their match and gloating about it later on social media. In any event, the occasionally brash American has played with incredible freedom this fortnight, not dropping a set since her opener against compatriot Pera.
And her straight-sets win against Caroline Garcia- who just surprised Coco Gauff- was arguably her most complete performance thus far. Collins struck an incredible 22 winners and never faced a break point in the entre match, winning an awe-inspiring 90% of her first-serve points.
She has now reached her second Miami semi-final (she reached the semis at Key Biscayne as a qualifier six years ago). She feeds off the raucous energy of the Hard Rock Stadium and she is going to leave everything out there in search of her maiden WTA 1000 final.
Verdict: Collins to win in straight sets 15/10
This will be the first career meeting between these two. Collins may need to think twice about retiring if she continues to play like this. I think that there’s an air of inevitably about Collins this week. She is feeding off the chaotic energy of this crowd and she has looked as good as I have ever seen her.
She hasn’t been broken in her last two matches and she has only been broken twice this fortnight. She is serving like a demon and I think she is going to force the Russian into plenty of unforced errors.
