Matteo Berrettini faces off against Hubert Hurkacz before tournament favourite Novak Djoklovic takes on Denis Shapovalov in the men's semi-finals of Wimbledon 2021.
2021 ATP Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
Wimbledon Tennis Championships
All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club
Men’s Semi-Finals- 9th July
Matteo Berrettini 37/100 | Hubert Hurkacz 2/1
Watching Roger Federer get humbled on centre court yesterday was perhaps one of the most depressing sights in recent sporting history. I don’t want to get too fixated on Federer, but it reminded me of watching Ali in some of his ill-advised later fights. 14th seed Hubert Hurkacz became only the 2nd Polish man in tennis history to reach the semi-finals of a Grand Slam (it’s quite the time for Polish tennis with Iga Swiatek in the ladies’ section). It’s been a rollercoaster of a year for the Pole. He won the Delray Beach Classic and also picked up a stunning victory at the Miami Open. That Miami title consisted of victories over the likes of Rublev and Tsitsipas. But outside of those two tournaments he has been poor, failing to progress beyond the quarterfinal stage of any event prior to Wimbledon. In fact, he entered this year’s event on the back of six consecutive defeats. But he has been the sensational surprise package of this year’s semi-finalists. He won his first three matches without dropping a set. He then won a marathon five-set match against 2nd seed Danil Medvedev. And then yesterday he won the biggest match of his career, usurping his idol Roger Federer in callous fashion. Hurkacz is a defensive dynamo who will need all of those powers against the powerhouse that is Matteo Berrettini.
Matteo Berrettini has lived up to his pre-tournament billing as one this year’s favourites, producing a masterclass of grass-court tennis over the past fortnight. He has only dropped two sets en route to his 2nd Grand Slam semi-final. Berrttini entered this event having not dropped a set in his dominant Queens victory. As I have noted before, he is just built for this surface. He has a gargantuan service (he has amassed a staggering 79 this year). His aggressive forehand has really helped him pulverize opponents into submission. He just took down the highly impressive Auger Aliassime and has now improved his career grass-court record to 23-5. He will likely be the one who takes the initiative in this match, looking to truncate the points as much as possible. He will know that Hurkacz is a supreme athlete who may just revel in a five-set epic.
Verdict: Berrettini in 4 sets at 26/10
This will be their 2nd career meeting, with the Pole beating the Italian at the 2019 Miami Masters. It would be easy to let the Federer match fog one’s perception of this one. But I think that Federer’s defeat said as much about the Swiss as it did about the Pole. I don’t think that Hurkacz’s defensive prowess will be able to contain the raw power of Berrettini. Berrettini to win in four sets at 26/10.
Novak Djokovic 1/12 | Denis Shapovalov 13/2
It really does get to a point where you run out of superlatives for the Serbian superstar Novak Djokovic. He has now won 19 consecutive Grand Slam matches. He has also won 15 consecutive sets of tennis, with only British debutant Jack Draper able to pry a set away from the World Number One. Djokovic was far from his best at a windy Centre Court yesterday, though he still managed to win in straight sets. He actually registered the 100th win of his career on a grass court. Djokovic will be thrilled with the limited amount of time he has had to spend on court, mindful of the over-arching goal of winning the coveted Golden Slam. He must also be secretly thrilled with Federer’s defeat yesterday, which means that both of his great rivals (Federer and Nadal) are not ominously waiting for the Serb.
Few would have expected Shapovalov to reach this stage of the tournament following his fairly indifferent 2021 form. He also had almost zero grass-court pedigree prior to 2021. Sure, he won the junior Wimbledon title in 2016. But I have come to terms with the fact that performances at junior level aren’t the greatest determinant of future success. He had only won four tour-level matches on this surface going into this year’s grass-court season. But a semi-final run at Queens showed that he has what it takes to thrive on this surface. His biggest problem is consistency. That was clearly evident in yesterday’s match against Karen Khachanov. He hit 59 winners and 48 unforced errors in an erratic performance. What really disturbed by was how one-dimensional his backhand got on tight points. Yes, he did rip a few amazing backhands throughout the match. But on a few occasions, he looked to just rip the backhand when he was completely out of position. He will need to mix that up should he remain competitive against Djokovic. I would like to see him employ some more slice and subtlety off that wing.
Verdict: Djokovic in straight sets at 11/20.
This is ominous. Djokovic leads the head-to-head with Shapovalov 6-0. In fact, he has dropped just two sets against the Canadian. There are just too many errors baked into the Shapovalov game to win against Djokovic over five sets. Djokovic is the god of percentage tennis and in many ways, Shapovalov is his ideal opponent. His recklessness will be punished by the Serbian. Djokovic to win in straight sets at 11/20.
