Damien Kayat previews the three biggest clashes from the women’s Round of 32 draw at the French Open.
Angelique Kerber 11/10 | Kiki Bertens 13/20
Two-time Grand Slam Champion Kerber has been the bastion of consistency this season. After winning in Sydney she suffered that heart-breaking defeat to Halep in the semi-finals at Melbourne. Subsequently she has managed to reach a further five quarterfinals, though she only reached the semi-finals on one of those occasions. Not especially renowned for her clay-court ability- a quarterfinal result in 2012 is her best result here- Kerber did recently reach the quarterfinals in Rome. She will know that Kiki Bertens is one of those opponents that nobody wants to face at this stage of the tournament.
Bertens has overcome a tough early draw with aplomb, beating Sasnovich and Sabalenka with only nine games dropped. Bertens started the year with an eye-catching run in the Aussie Open, only to lose three consecutive first round matches after that. She has since gone on to better things on the clay, winning in Charleston prior to a brilliant run to the final in Madrid. She beat Wozniacki and Garcia en route to that final defeat to Petra Kvitova in Madrid. Bertens has tended to dip following an impressive week, which should bode well following last week’s early exit in Nuremberg.
The two share a 1-1 head-to-head record, though it’s that 2016 victory for Bertens in Roland Garros that really screams out. Bertens is the favourite here, despite Kerber’s known Grand Slam pedigree.
Maria Sharapova 8/10 | Karolina Pliskova 9/10
This looks set to be a gargantuan encounter between two players renowned for their service abilities. Karolina Pliskova has been serving extremely well and overcame a spirted Lucie Safarova in the last round. The sixth seed has had a bizarre year in the sense that the clay has brought out the best in her. Traditionally a hard-court enthusiast, she won in Stuttgart, managing to beat Coco Vandeweghe and last year’s French Open Champion Ostapenko. She then had a semi-final run in Madrid, which indicates that she has benefitted from the limited expectations for her on clay. Yet to truly announce herself on the Grand Slam stage, she will have her work cut out against an opponent all too familiar with the pressures of Grand Slam tennis.
Sharapova was almost shocked by unheralded Hogenkamp in the opening round before a far more convincing win over Donna Vekic. Sharapova’s comeback path has been dogged by massive bouts of inconsistency. She lost four consecutive matches in the wake of that Kerber thrashing in Melbourne. The 2004 French Open Champion has had a few encouraging signs on the clay. A run to the quarterfinals in Madrid was followed by an excellent semi-final appearance in Rome. She lost to Halep but must have drawn many positives from a week that included a victory over last year’s champion Jelena Ostapenko. She will need to diffuse Pliskova’s immense service game and eradicate the litany of errors that have plagued her this season.
These two, almost unbelievably, have only met once before, with Sharapova wining a Fed Cup tie in 2015. I personally feel that Pliskova could have the edge here. Sharapova has just shown a propensity to buckle as soon as her great return is upon us.
Daria Gavrilova 39/20 | Elise Mertens 7/20
Russian-born Aussie Daria Gavrilova has had to do it tough thus far, with hard fought victories over both Pera and Cirstea. She has struggled for consistency throughout the year but has had enough intriguing results to suggest she is decent value this weekend. Firstly, there was that semi-final run in Mexico, which pre-empted a sharp dip in form prior to Rome. But she managed to find her touch in Italy with a run to the Round of 16. This included a victory over former French Open Champion Garbine Muguruza.
Elise Mertens is one of the hottest players on the planet, with three titles to her name this season. That’s a slightly deceptive statistic however, as those wins have largely occurred in less prestigious events. The wins in Morocco and Samsung clearly demonstrated her ability to grind it out on the clay. But she feel somewhat chastened by a resounding defeat at the hands of Haelp in Madrid, just when some spectators were anticipating a possible upset. But she also had that semi-final run in the Aussie Open, a result that suggest that she may possess the ability to turn it on at this level.
I just think Gavrilova looks like great value at 39/20. She trails the head-to-head with Mertens 2-1, though that stat reads 1-1 on clay. Mertens emerged victorious when the two met in Melbourne earlier this year, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Aussie is able to spring a minor surprise this weekend.
Written by Damien Kayat for @Hollywoodbets.net
