Damien Kayat previews Petra Kvitova vs Donna Vekic and Julia Gorges vs Caroline Garcia from the Round of 32 at the WTA’s Miami Open.
Petra Kvitova 9/20 | Donna Vekic 15/10
Czech superstar Petra Kvitova has enjoyed of the most stunning comebacks in tennis history over the past few years. Coming back from a potentially career-threatening knife attack, Kvitova has turned into a behemoth on the tour and has accentuated that with a powerful run in Melbourne. She won titles last year at Birmingham, Madrid and Prague, before claiming the Sydney title to start this season. Her run to the Aussie Open Final proved those wrong who thought her Grand Slam ambitions over. That defeat to Osaka would have obviously affected the Czech and left some emotional residue. She did reach the Dubai final, once again displaying her implacability and hardiness. But her opening round defeat to Venus Williams in Indian Wells last week highlighted potential vulnerabilities in the Czech. She has played a considerable amount of tennis this year and may be feeling battled fatigued entering this tumultuous part of the season.
Croatian Donna Vekic has actually enjoyed the most consistent period of her career over the past eight months. She has managed to finally make her tennis seem more pertinent than the melodramatic off-court issues that have followed her in recent years. Her resurgence started with a semi-final showing at Nottingham last year. She has always shown a proficiency for grass-courts and used it as a potent catalyst for change. She reached the final 16 at Wimbledon prior to an encouraging year-end on the hard-courts. She reached the Washington Final prior to a semi-final at the Pan Pacific Open. She then started the year in sparkling fashion, reaching the semi-finals of the Brisbane Invitational. She would go on to reach the final of the St Petersburg Open, which really highlighted her resurgence. A semi-final in Mexico preceded her disappointing poor defeat at Indian Wells.
I think that the Croatian represents great value this week for an upset. She is in a rich vein of form herself and comes up against an opponent she defeated this year in St Petersburg. They share the head-to-head 1-1, with Kvitova actually owning a win over Vekic in Miami- though that came back in 2014. I think that the statuesque Vekic could pull off a surprise here.
Julia Gorges 9/10 | Caroline Garcia 8/10
This will be an intriguing battle between two former top 10 players who have slid gradually down the pecking order over the last year. Caroline Garcia’s slide has perhaps been more dramatic. She lost in her opening match in Miami last season and has battled to find any consistency since. A semi-final showing in Stuttgart was about as good as it got- though she did claim a rather weak Tianjin Open title towards the end of the season. Quarter-finals at Canada and the Pan Pacific Open did offer a glimpse of the Frenchwoman’s potential. This season has seen her depreciate more rapidly. A third round in Melbourne represents her best showing: she was even eliminated in the opening round of a decidedly weak Thailand Open. She was eliminated in the opening round of Indian Wells last week and desperately needs a run this week. A straight sets victory over Victoria Azarenka would have given her some confidence.
Julia Gorges’ travails seem tame in comparison to Garcia’s. The German defended her Auckland Open title to start the season but has largely plodded since. She managed to overcome the Bianca Andreescu paradox in the process of claiming the Auckland title. Gorges confounded expectations last year with that brilliant run to the semi-finals of Wimbledon. It was compatriot Angelique Kerber who would ultimately bring the trophy back to Germany. She has always been an adept flat-track bully, with a victory in the understated Luxembourg Open towards the end of the year.
Caroline Garcia actually leads their head-to-head 2-0. But her victories came during a highly fertile period for the Frenchwoman. I can’t really believe that Garcia is the slight favourite for this one in light of her really poor form. You have to fancy the metronomic German. It may even be worth it to back the German to win in straight sets at 39/20.
Written by Damien Kayat for Hollywoodbets
