Damien Kayat previews the WTA Tour’s Miami Open round of 64 matches featuring Naomi Osaka vs Angelique Kerber as well as Jelena Ostapenko vs Shelby Rogers.
2022 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
Miami Open
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 64 Matches- 25th March
I’m still in a state of profound shock. Ashleigh Barty’s decision to retire at 25 has stupefied the entire tennis community. Barty, a three-time Grand Slam champion, is also the current two-time defending Miami Open champion (making this week’s announcement all the more poignant). Who will step into her mammoth shoes and claim this year’s Miami crown?
24 March
Naomi Osaka (37/100) vs Angelique Kerber (2/1)
Will it be cynical to say that Osaka may be the player who benefits most from Barty’s shock retirement? Firstly, her and Barty have been the preeminent figures in women’s tennis for the last three years. Secondly- and perhaps more importantly- the Barty retirement drama may actually detract from the eternal Osaka melodrama.
The Indian Wells heckling incident really fades into the ether in comparison to this Barty bombshell. Following her protracted 2021 hiatus and recent dip in form, Osaka is now ranked 77th in the world. Amazingly, Osaka hasn’t won a title since last year’s Aussie Open (her 4th Grand Slam crown).
Osaka breezed past Astra Sharma with very little fuss. This will be an entirely different contest, with Osaka having to overcome a considerable head-to-head disadvantage against Angelique Kerber.
34-year-old Angelique Kerber came into this event in terrible form, failing to get past the first hurdle at both the Aussie and Qatar Open. But Kerber seemed to come into her own at Indian Wells.
She struggled past Qinwen Zheng in her opening match in California. But that victory gave her real confidence and she overwhelmed former Indian Wells finalist Daria Kasatkina. And then she pushed Iga Swiatek- Barty’s immediate successor as World Number One- to three tough sets. Kerber enjoyed a real renaissance towards the middle of last year, winning the Bad Homburg Open before a glorious semi-final run at Wimbledon.
That is to be expected from the grass-court empress. But she also showed her considerable hardcourt prowess by reaching the semi-finals in Cincinnati. And she comes into this match with a surprisingly dominant head-to-head record against Osaka.
Verdict: Osaka to win in straight-sets at 17/20- Kerber has a commanding 4-1 head-to-head record against Osaka. In fact, Kerber has won their last four matches. But their last meeting came at the 2018 WTA Championships. That was before Osaka had truly established herself as the greatest hardcourt player of her generation. I have a feeling that the real Osaka may be unleashed this week. In that case, there are very few players who have the tools to stop her.
25 March
Jelena Ostapenko (49/100) vs Shelby Rogers (31/20)
Jelena Ostapenko is always an intriguing dark horse contender. She is a former finalist in this event (though her 2018 runner-up finish came the year before the switch to current venue: Hard Rock Stadium).
Ostapenko enters this event with some of the best (and most consistent) form of her entire career. The 2017 French Open champ has garnered a reputation for being the Jekyll and Hyde of women’s tennis. She will capture a WTA 1000 title and then proceed to lose six consecutive first-round matches. But she seems to have tempered her devil-may-care approach to shot-making, finally operating with slightly more restraint. She enters this event with a 14-5 year-to-date record.
Last month, Ostapenko beat four Grand Slam champions en route to the Dubai title. This victory was wedged between semi-final appearances in St Petersburg and Qatar.
In the immediate aftermath of the 2020 Covid hiatus, 29-year-old American Shelby Rogers was one of the hottest players on tour. Rogers beat Serena Williams to reach the semi-final of the Top Seed Open. This evolved into an excellent quarterfinal run at the 2020 US Open.
Considering all that potential, 2021 was a fairly tame year for Rogers. She did find consistency in the Slams, reaching the 4th round of both the Aussie and US Open. This showcases her ability to perform on the biggest stages. But 2022 has turned out to be yet another grind for Rogers. But she showed definite signs of improvement at Indian Wells, losing to US Open finalist Leylah Fernandez in the round of 16. Her first-round victory against Amanda Anisimova took her win-loss record to an even 5-5.
She should prefer these surfaces to those found at Indian Wells last week. They are a bit slicker and more reminiscent of Flushing Meadows.
Verdict: Rogers to win in three at 48/10- Ostapenko leads the head-to-head 3-1. However, Rogers picked up that crucial victory against Ostapenko last week. It was a victory that highlighted Rogers’ undeniable hardcourt prowess. This all boils down to one simple question: which Ostapenko is going to rock up this week? I think I’m going to side with Rogers this week. Ostapenko may get carried away with the slightly faster conditions and hit more errors. Rogers is also fresh off that victory in California last week.
