Damien Kayat previews Sloane Stephens vs Shelby Rogers and Elena Rybakina vs Anna Kalinskaya in the Selected Round of 128 and Round of 64 Matches of the Miami Open on 23 March 2023.
2023 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
Miami Open
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida, USA (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 128 and Round of 64 Matches – 23rd March
Round of 128
Sloane Stephens 5/4 | Shelby Rogers 61/100
This should be a fascinating all-American clash between two of the more mercurial talents in women’s tennis. A native of Florida, Sloane Stephens may well be in celebratory mood after recently turning 30.
She should enjoy the majority of support this week, but it will be interesting to see exactly which Stephens we get. The former US Open and Miami Open champ has regressed badly over the last three or four years, seemingly lacking the necessary dedication to remain near the top pf the game.
But she won her first title in four years in Guadalajara last year, giving some confidence that she could regain something resembling her best form. A quarterfinal run at Roland Garros seemed to support this assumption. But her season just fizzled out and her 2023 form isn’t much better. She is currently 4-6 for the season.
Sure, she picked up back-to-back quarterfinals in the Merida and Austin Opens. But both of those tournaments ended in humiliating defeats (including a dreaded double-bagel in the Merida Open). The courts may not be Indian Wells slow but they certainly aren’t overly quick. This should suit Stephens’ defensive game, allowing her to hang in rallies and build momentum
An avowed hardcourt expert with a penchant for taking down big names, World No.42 Shelby Rogers doesn’t arrive in Miami with much form under her belt. She has lost in the early rounds in multiple events this year.
However, there have been enough signs to suggest that she could salvage her season on the harder surfaces. She reached the quarterfinal in Abu Dhabi, upsetting Leylah Fernandez and Anett Kontaveit in the process. S
he also lost at Indian Wells to eventual semi-finalist Maria Sakkari, pushing the Greek to three sets. Rogers has an uncomplicated, see-ball, hit-ball approach. She hugs the baseline and looks to wear players down through brute force.
Verdict: Rogers to win in three sets at 33/10
This will be the first competitive meeting between these two. In reality, these surfaces should suit Stephens better than the more one-dimensional Rogers. But I can’t look past Stephens’ recent capitulations (particularly that double-bagel against Camelia Giorgi). Rogers never gives less than 100% and I see her grinding out a three-set win here.
Round of 64
Elena Rybakina 19/100 | Anna Kalinskaya 7/2
Newly minted World No.7 Elena Rybakina is seen by many as a potential successor to Iga Swiatek’s throne. The 23-year-old Kazakh star has an ice cool demeanour that never seems to waver.
She obviously won her maiden Grand Slam title at last year’s Wimbledon Championships. And she proved this wasn’t a fluke by making it all the way to the final of this year’s Aussie Open. And her victory at Indian Wells last week- in unfavourable conditions- further cemented her status as a big-occasion player.
She has a huge, accurate serve that she uses to pummel players into submission. And her unrelenting power was enough to derail Aryna Sabalenka last week’s final. Sabalenka- who seemed to have conquered those double-fault demons- actually coughed up ten double-faults in that final. That was a consequence of Rybakina’s aggressive approach.
Having said all this, Rybakina has a habit of going quiet in the aftermath of these big results. She never went beyond the quarterfinal stage in her four events immediately following Wimbledon.
And she couldn’t get past the quarters in her two events following this year’s Aussie Open. Could this present an opening for 24-year-old Anna Kalinskaya?
24-year-old Anna Kalinskaya will obviously be a massive underdog here. The Ukrainian has shown real incremental improvement over the last few years, threatening to break into the top 50 in the world towards the end of last year.
2023 has been a bit of a grind for Kalinskaya. But the last few tournaments have shown some real potential. She reached the quarterfinals of the Austin Open only to go down in three sets to Grand Slam champion Danielle Collins.
And she thrashed Alycia Parks in the first round of Indian Wells last time out. She was knocked out in three sets by a somewhat resurgent Karolin Pliskova. She looked impressive in her opening encounter, calmly dispatching of Jimenez Kasintseva in straight sets.
Verdict: Rybakina to win in three sets at 31/10
Kalinskaya actually leads their head-to-head 1-0, beating Rybakina in straight sets at the W25 Playford event. But obviously this is a different level and Rybakina is an entirely different beast.
But I do think there is some merit in the observation that Rybakina struggles in the immediate aftermath of a big result. Add to that the fact that Kalinskaya has pushed some big players to three sets of late and I think a Rybakina three-set win is the best way to go.
