Damien Kayat previews Tatjana Maria vs Heather Watson and Zhu Lin vs Magdalena Frech in selected Round of 16 matches of the Nottingham Open, on the 14th of June 2023.
2022/23 WTA Tour
WTA 250
Nottingham Open
Nottingham Tennis Centre. Nottingham, England (Outdoor Grass)
Selected Round of 16 Mtaches – 14th June
Tatjana Maria 64/100 | Heather Watson 12/10
This is a match between two reals sentimental favourites. 35-year-old German Tatjana Maria was little more than a nuggety journeywoman when she entered last year’s Wimbledon Championships.
But the mother of two embarked on an astonishing run that saw her reach her maiden Grand Slam semi-final. She was only the 6th woman in the Open Era to reach a Grand Slam semi-final over the age of 34. She was awarded the WTA Comeback Player of the Year for her stunning performance.
She has some previous grass-court clout, winning the 2018 Mallorca Open. She recently defended her Copa Colsanitas crown (highlighting some real all-court capability). There is definitely something a bit retro about Maria. She employs huge amounts of slice off both wings.
It is rather bizarre to see a forehand slice used so liberally in the age of Swiatek and Sabalenka. But Maria has a gameplan that suits her at this stage of her career. And it has proven to be a tough nut to crack on grass. She just soundly beat 6th seed Zheng and will feel very confident of progressing to the quarterfinals here.
Heather Watson’s victory at the 2021 Japan Woman’s Open was the first time since 1988 that a British woman had won a WTA singles event. That’s insane. Britain had been starved of female tennis idols and the young, vibrant Watson seemed to fit the bill.
But Watson just hasn’t quite been able to live up to expectations (despite four WTA titles to her name). She was always pegged as a potential Wimbledon contender but has largely underwhelmed on grass. She did pick up a semi-final finish at the 2021 Birmingham Open.
And she had her deepest run in a Grand Slam at last year’s Wimbledon Championships, going out to German Julie Niemeier in the 4th round. She just exacted some revenge on the German with a solid opening round victory. She showed plenty of guts to recover from a 4-1 deficit in the first set.
It was her first tour-level victory since February and it sets up an intriguing round of 16 clash.
Verdict: Maria to win in straight sets at 14/10
Maria holds a slim 2-1 head-to-head lead over Watson. The Brit was forced to withdraw midway through their qualifier in Toronto last year. So, they actually have a 1-1 record in completed matches.
This will be one for the purists, with both players quite comfortable with crafting points and engaging in a battle of wits. I just think Maria makes less mistakes than Watson and should run out a comfortable winner.
Zhu Lin 21/20 | Magdalena Frech 73/100
Chinese baseliner Zhu Lin has had the very definition of a roller-coaster campaign. And she is currently in the descent portion of that particular metaphor. She started the year in excellent fashion, reaching the 4th round of a Grand Slam for the first time in Melbourne.
That run included a victory over Maria Sakkari and a tight three-set loss to Azarenka in the 4th round. She followed up that Grand Slam breakthrough with her maiden WTA title at the Hua Hin Championships. She followed that up with a semi-final run in Monterrey.
Her fans call her the ‘Playwright’ due to the way her form lurches from comedy to tragedy. And she has certainly been in tragedy mode since Monterrey, losing four consecutive tour-level matches leading into Nottingham. She will be hoping that a comfortable win over promising American Alycia Parks could be the start of a swift uptick in form.
25-year-old Pole Magdalena Frech will look to draw inspiration from compatriot Iga Swiatek’s French Open triumph. Frech has always struggled for her survival on the tour proper. She hasn’t won a tournament at any level since a 2021 ITF event.
But she recently reached a career high ranking of 77. This was courtesy of her 3rd round run at the WTA 1000 event in Miami. She just came through a grueling three-setter against Brit Sonay Kartal that should leave her feeling a bit more settled on the grass.
She is really the polar opposite of Zhu Lin when it comes to style. Lin adopts a gung-ho approach that yields plenty of winners and errors. Frech plays a far more understated brand of tennis that can be overpowered.
She will look to play percentage tennis and hope that Lin is once again in tragedy mode.
Verdict: Lin to win in three at 42/10
These two share the head-to-head spoils 1-1. Frech won their first match in 2017 while Lin won their last match in 2019. So, it’s pretty hard to glean anything from that. Lin is the superior ball striker and should comfortably see off Frech.
But the Chinese player does make plenty of errors and could be frustrated by Frech’s measured approach. Lin to win in three makes a lot of sense.
