Damien Kayat runs the rule over two of the WTA Tour’s Italian Open Ro32 matches: Daria Kasatkina’s match against Naomi Osaka and Beatriz Haddad Maia’s clash against MAdison Keys.
2024 WTA Tour – WTA 1000
Italian Open
Foro Italico
Selected Ro32 Matches – 12 May 2024
Daria Kasatkina 67/100 | Naomi Osaka 23/20
This will actually be a remake of the 2018 Indian Wells final, where Naomi Osaka stormed to victory in an ominous portent of the Grand Slam glory to come.
Daria Kasatkina has become a perennial presence in the world’s top 15, reaching an impressive 11 WTA finals since the start of 2021. The crafty Russian has been in impressive form this season, finishing runner-up in three events. That included an excellent run to the Charleston final a few weeks ago.
Her opening straight-sets victory over Maria took her clay-court record to 7-2 for the season. Kasatkina has thrived on all surfaces but I think her game- based on variety- is best suited to clay. She employs heavy topspin on her forehand wing but she is able to mix that up with delicate slice and off-speed shots.
She uses angles brilliantly and slower conditions allow her to manipulate the ball more. A former Charleston champion and French Open semi-finalist, Kasatkina also reached the final four here back in 2022.
Naomi Osaka has surprised me this week, negotiating tricky ties against Burel and Kostyuk with minimal fuss. The American has quickly improved from a humdrum 8-8 to a quietly respectable 10-8 for the season.
The four-time Grand Slam champion and former World No.1 has always struggled to transfer her hardcourt success to clay. She hits the ball pretty flat and can become a bit one-dimensional on these surfaces. But she has reached the quarter-final of this event previously and she has seemed very comfortable this week.
I think her big serve and booming forehand allow her to penetrate these slow surfaces better than most. I also think she is thriving playing without much expectation. She has battled mental health issues over the past few years and only returned to action earlier this season following a pregnancy hiatus.
I think she is slowly rediscovering her love of the game and perhaps she will be a real contender during the North American hardcourt season.
Verdict: Kasatkina to win in straight sets 29/20
This will only be their second meeting after Osaka’s comfortable victory in that Indian Wells final. I think Kasatkina’s game is just tailormade for this surface. She will take Osaka to uncomfortable areas of the court and will barely give the Japanese star the same ball to hit twice.
Beatriz Haddad Maia 89/100 | Madison Keys 89/100
Brazilian Beatriz Haddad Maia is coming off a highly creditable quarter-final run in Madrid that she hopes will reinvigorate a slightly flagging campaign.
The lefty has endured her hardships over the years, battling massive injury issues and a doping suspension in the early portion of her career. But she has enjoyed a pretty meteoric rise over the last two years or so, highlighted by her gut-busting run to last year’s French Open semi-finals.
A grinder by nature, Haddad Maia doesn’t let any point drift idly by. She loves three-set matches where she can just outlast her opponent. Perhaps that has caught up to her a little bit this season. She picked up a semi-final run in Abu Dhabi before going 3-6 in her next six events. But she showed signs of life in Madrid, even taking a set off eventual champion Iga Swiatek (which is no mean feat on clay).
She just struggled past Wang- in typical Haddad Maia fashion- and she will take some beating this week. She is actually gearing up quite nicely ahead of Roland Garros.
American Madison Keys also had to grind it out in her opener, needing three sets to take down Osorio Serrano. That win took her to 5-2 on clay this season. The big-hitting American has looked at ease on the European clay this year and is starting to emerge as a nice dark horse contender for this year’s French Open title.
Keys missed out on the early portion of the season due to injury, only returning to action at Indian Wells. But that semi-final run at Madrid caught everyone by surprise. She beat the likes of Gauff and Jabeur in one of her best performances in recent memory.
Keys is an accomplished clay-court player, winning in Charleston and reaching a French Open semi-final. More importantly, the American finished runner-up here back in 2016. She will look to shorten the rallies, using her commanding forehand to dictate the tempo of points.
Verdict: Haddad Maia to win in three 36/10
Haddad Maia actually won their only previous meeting, taking down the American in straight sets at last year’s WTA Elite Trophy. This is actually an extremely tough one to call. Keys will probably feel like the right option considering her performance in Madrid.
But I feel that Haddad Maia’s gritty style could wear Keys down on this surface. Keys is also coming off a physically demanding fortnight in Madrid and could start to struggle if this match goes deep.
