Damien Kayat previews Jelena Ostapenko vs Emma Radacanu and Maria Sakkari vs Karolina Pliskova in the Round of 32 matches of the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix on, 18 March 2023.
2023 WTA Tour
WTA 500
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix
Porsche-Arena (Indoor Clay-Court)
Selected Round of 32 Matches – 18th April
Jelena Ostapenko 73/100 | Emma Radacanu 21/20
This is a match that has the power to ignite the early stages of this tournament. The ever-mercurial Jelena Ostapenko is always a hard one to fathom.
She can go from five straight losses to a tournament final in a heartbeat. The 2017 French Open champion has actually managed to find some consistency over the last few years, reaching five WTA finals since June 2021.
Her last tournament victory came at last year’s WTA 500 event in Dubai. Curiously, the Latvian has actually struggled on clay since wining the French Open title in 2017 (she hasn’t reached a clay-court final since). It makes sense.
Sure, she has the power to penetrate through the court. But clay also demands more discipline and the ability to stay in rallies. She comes into this event with a decent 12-8 record for the year. That record is inflated by a brilliant quarterfinal showing at the Aussie Open.
Can she rein in her worse impulses and play more constructive tennis this week?
It’s been a real roller-coaster ride for Emma Radacanu since her outrageous triumph at the 2021 US Open. I take that back: roller-coasters go up and down.
It has been pretty much a downward trajectory for the Brit since that Flushing Meadows success. She has struggled with the sudden fame and scrutiny and hasn’t reached a final since New York. She has also struggled with a variety of injury issues.
She suffered an ankle injury earlier this year and has been beset by ongoing wrist issues over the past few months. But there have been signs of real encouragement for the Brit of late. She reached the final 16 at Indian Wells before suffering a signature Swiatek pasting.
She then pushed fellow US Open champ Bianca Andreescu to three sets in Miami. She is certainly approaching a more consistent level. Currently sitting at 5-4 for the year, could Radancanu explode on this year’s clay-court circuit?
Verdict: Ostapenko to win in three – 7/2
This will be the first clay-court match of the year for both players. Ostapenko leads the head-to-head 1-0, with the Brit withdrawing in their Korea Open semi-final last year. I think this is a real toss-up. Ostapenko has more tennis under her belt and there are lingering concerns over Radacanu’s wrist.
This is the reason I’m opting for an Ostapenko three-set win. She may also benefit from the fact that this is an indoor clay-court event. She can fit into a steadier rhythm without interference from the elements (perhaps helping to keep those unforced errors down).
Maria Sakkari 78/100 | Karolina Pliskova 1/1
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I still can’t believe that Maria Sakkari only has one title to her name. The Greek has remained a strong presence in the WTA rankings due to her incredible consistency.
She reached four finals last year and has already reached four semi-finals this campaign (she currently sits at slightly creditable 15-7 for the year). One thing that Sakkari does have is a burgeoning clay-court pedigree.
10 of her 17 ITF finals came on clay. Her only WTA title came on the clay-courts of the Istanbul Open. She reached the semi-finals of the 2021 French Open and reached the final in Parma last year. It makes sense.
Her combination of power and raw athleticism makes her an ideal clay-court candidate. Next up for Sakkari is a player she knows all too well: Karolina Plsikova.
Karolina Pliskova will be making her first appearance since a humbling defeat to Marketa Vondrousova in Miami. The Czech is actually enjoying a resurgent season after injury obliterated her 2022 campaign.
She finished 2022 ranked outside the top 30 for the first time in a decade. But she has looked impressive this year and comes into this match with a 16-7 record for the year.
Her season has been anchored by a brilliant quarterfinal run in Melbourne. But how is she going to handle this first clay-court match of the year? Mobility has always been an issue with Pliskova. This is probably the reason why clay has sometimes been a struggle for her.
But she actually has some sneaky clay-court cred to her name. She reached three consecutive Italian Open finals between 2019 and 2021. She also won this title back in 2018. She is starting to get that first-serve percentage up and will relish another chapter in this captivating rivalry with Sakkari.
Verdict: Sakkari to win in straight sets – 21/10
This has turned into a terrific rivalry, with both players winning three matches thus far. They actually exchanged clay-court wins in their first two encounters in 2018 and 2019. And they are currently 1-1 for the year. The Czech absolutely trounced the Greek in Dubai.
Sakkari showed impressive bottle to turn those fortunes around with a tight three-set win at Indian Wells. This will boil down to who adapts to the clay-court conditions faster. That’s why I’m leaning towards Sakkari. Sure, Pliskova is a former champion here.
But I think her body is going to take a bit more time to adapt to the vagaries of clay this time around.
