The clay-court season reaches its crescendo as the finest as Iga Swiatek looks to claim her a hat-trick of Roland-Garros titles. Damien Keyat runs the rule over the women’s draw, looking at the top contenders, midtier choices and longshot options.
It’s really incredible what has happened in world tennis over the past two years. The men’s draw had always been the more stable entity, with the prolonged dominance of the ‘Big Three’ often making for fairly predictable outcomes. The WTA draw was the ‘Wild West’, with players like Jelena Ostapenko and Emma Radacanu coming out of nowhere to grab Gand Slam titles.
2024 WTA Tour – Grand Slam Tennis
Women’s French Open Championships
Stade Roland Garros
26 May – 9 June
But the era of ‘Big Three’ dominance appears to be over in men’s tennis, with new blood rushing in to upend the status quo (Sinner, Alcaraz). In contrast, the women’s game appears to have stabilised, with a fairly obvious ‘Big Three’ starting to emerge after years of ranking chaos.
Granted, the shorter three-set format in women’s slams will always encourage more deep runs by outliers. But I can easily envisage the top-four women qualifying for this year’s semi-finals. When was the last time you could say that?
Reigning French Open champion Iga Swiatek is a four-time Major champion who will be a massive favourite this fortnight. Aryna Sabalenka has nabbed two consecutive Aussie Open titles but can’t quite crack Swiatek on clay.
Then you have Elena Rybakina, reaching finals and winning titles without much fuss or fanfare. Reigning US Open champion Coco Gauff may be ranked No.3 in the world but she still doesn’t have anywhere near the big-match consistency of the other three.
Still, the American is a past French Open finalist and this could represent her chance to start a ‘Big Four’ conversation.
Past Champions
- 2023: Iga Swaitek bt Karolina Muchova (6-2, 5-7, 6-4)
- 2022: Iga Swiatek bt Coco Gauff (6-1, 6-3)
- 2021: Barbora Krejcikova bt Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (6-1, 2-6, 6-4)
- 2020: Iga Swiatek bt Sofia Kenin (6-4, 6-1)
- 2019: Ashleigh Barty bt Marketa Vondrousova (6-1, 6-3)
- 2018: Simona Halep bt Sloane Stephens (3-6, 6-4, 6-1)
Clay-court precursors this season
Charleston Open: Danielle Collins bt Daria Kasatkina (7-5, 6-3)
Copa Colsanitas: Camila Osorio bt Marie Bouzkova (6-3, 7-6)
Stuttgart Open: Elena Rybakina bt Marta Kostyuk (6-2, 6-2)
Open de Rouen: Sloane Stephens bt Magda Linette (6-1, 2-6, 6-2)
Madrid Open: Iga Swiatek bt Aryna Sabalenka (7-5, 6-4, 7-6)
Italian Open: Iga Swiatek bt Aryna Sabalenka (6-2, 6-3)
Morocco Open and Internationaux de Strasbourg: in progress
The Big Three
There’s a definite ‘big three’ vying for the Women’s title this year, but one stands head and shoulders above the rest of them and will be looking to bag her fourth French Open title in five years.
Iga Swiatek
The real question this week is simple: can anyone stop Iga Swiatek from winning a fourth Roland Garros title? Spoiler Alert: probably not. I’m not going to sit here like I have done with Nadal in the past, creating red herrings that would make Agatha Christie jealous.
Iga Swiatek should win this event. She has won here three times in the last four years and arrives in delicious form, winning back-to-back titles in Madrid and Rome (beating Sabalenka in both finals).
She also showed she can win two ways, saving match-points in Madrid before obliterating the Belarusian in the Rome final. These conditions were just made for the Pole. She uses her athleticism to chase everything down and the topspin she creates on that forehand wing is simply too much for most to handle.
Aryna Sabalenka
Now, which of her great rivals poses the biggest threat to her this year?
I just simply admire Aryna Sabalenka for being out there after such a traumatic year. The World No.2 has been on an emotional roller-coaster this year, going from the high of winning her second Grand Slam to the low that was the apparent suicide of her ex-boyfriend on the eve of the Indian Wells Masters.
She certainly never looked herself for some time following that incident but she thankfully rediscovered her form on the clay, losing those back-to-back finals to Swiatek. She must still be wondering how she let that Madrid title slip away.
She endured heartbreak here last season, losing to Muchova in the semis despite leading 5-2 in the third (with a match-point). That’s some significant scar tissue to overcome. I think the nature of that Rome defeat to Swiatek could have a psychological effect on Sabalenka going into the latter stages of this event (just a hunch).
Elena Rybakina
That’s why I think that Elena Rybakina may prove more of a threat to Swiatek in Paris. She has been in ninja mode this season, compiling a 30/5 win-loss record and winning three tournaments without anyone really noticing.
There are no histrionics with Rybakina, she just comes out and does the business. She has improved dramatically on clay over the last two years, winning in Rome last season and picking up another title in Stuttgart this year.
She was ousted in the Madrid semi-finals and will feel rested after skipping Rome. A quarter-finalist here back in 2021, Rybakina also has an intangible fear factor. She doesn’t succumb to nerves in the same way as other players and her serve can be virtually unplayable if it hums.
Sabakenka has a 6-3 head-to-head advantage over Rybakina but the Kazakh has won three of their last five meetings. She also holds a rare 4-2 head-to-head advantage over Swiatek. Former Wimbledon champ Rybakina plays with no fear and she can win any tournament if she finds her range.
My Top Ten (or twelve)
This is where things get slightly trickier. On paper, this should be a fairly straightforward bunch of players to group together, however, I’m of the opinion that only two of the chasing pack should warrant serious betting consideration.
Who to swerve in this bracket
Let’s see which top-ten players I can easily eliminate. Jessica Pegula is a huge doubt to participate this year due to injury. In any event, Pegula is essentially the Andrey Rublev of tennis (she just can’t get past a Grand Slam quarter-final).
I’m also willing to discount poor Ons Jabeur. She is a brilliant clay-court player but that knee injury has wrecked her momentum. She is 6-9 for the year and often playing in complete agony.
I’m also prepared to strike Maria Sakkari’s name off the list. I was slightly conflicted on this one. Sakkari is a former French Open semi-finalist and she is in decent form, reaching the Indian Wells Masters and the Charleston semi-finals earlier this season. But her recent Grand Slam form has been utterly atrocious: she is 1-4 in her last four Slams. I just can’t bring myself to look past that.
Zheng, Condrousova & Ostapenko
Qinwen Zheng and Marketa Vondrousova are slightly more enticing in this bracket.
Zheng obviously hasn’t quite been able to come down from that amazing Aussie Open high. But she is an adroit clay-court operator, reaching the fourth round here last season. She is fresh off a quarter-final run in Rome and she has some potential this week.
Reigning Wimbledon champ Vondrousova has little form to speak of this season (save for a semi-final run in Stuttgart). But the former French Open finalist has the ability to elevate her game for big events and she has what it takes to spring a surprise here.
Then you have the ever-mercurial Jelena Ostapenko. The Latvian has become far more consistent in recent times but I still think the former champ is too erratic to keep it together for two arduous weeks.
The Gauff factor
Coco Gauff is really the only other top-ten player that I can see actively challenging for the title this year. The US Open champ memorably lost to Swiatek in the 2022 final. She was clearly overawed by the occasion and was really put to the word by her arch-nemesis.
But the young American has grown since then, winning her maiden Grand Slam title and her first WTA 1000 crown. She is currently 25/8 for the season (which is pretty impressive when you consider she hasn’t reached a final).
She registered semi-final runs at the Aussie Open, Indian Wells Masters and the recent Madrid Open. It all hinges on her serve this week. She is trying to make it a more potent weapon but the adjustments she is making have radically increased her double-fault count (her double-fault percentage has risen from 5.1% to 8.9% this season).
If she can get that figure back down to around 5, Gauff could stand a very good chance of another deep run.
Collins a contender?
Ok, I have cheated here. I have gone outside the top ten to select current World No.12 Danielle Collins (who is currently in action in Strasbourg). She may actually be in the top ten by the time this week is finished.
In any event, Collins is arguably 2nd to Swiatek in terms of current form. The American has been on a blitzkrieg since announcing her impending retirement, going 20-2 since the start of the Miami Open.
She won back-to-back events in Miami and Charleston. She also just reached the semi-final on those ultra-slow Rome surfaces. The flat-hitting American just seems to be completely uninhibited at present (much like Caroline Garcia at the end of the 2022 North American hardcourt season).
Collins and Gauff are the most likely candidates to gatecrash the Big Three’s Parisian party.
The Mid-tier choices
This is where the waters are slightly more muddied. A few years ago you could have been reasonably certain that a contender would emerge from this group of players. However, the way the Women’s game is going at the moment you battle to see who from this group could contend with the big three. I’ve highlighted two.
Keys
Madison Keys is just always worth a look as a dark horse candidate. The American actually has a 72-46 win-loss record on clay (which is a higher win percentage than on hardcourts). She is also a perennial Grand Slam specialist, reaching the semi-final stage or better in six Slams (including a run to the 2018 French Open semi-final).
She reached the semi-finals in her last Grand Slam outing in New York and she arrives here in really strong clay-court form, reaching the semi-finals in Madrid and the quarter-finals in Rome. She is a brilliant returner and if her serve remains solid she could make the semi-finals again.
Kostyuk
Marta Kostyuk has been one of this season’s most underrated success stories. The 21-year-old Ukrainian has stormed into the top 20 in the world rankings after to a series of great results.
She first caught my attention at this year’s Aussie Open, where she reached her maiden Grand Slam quarter-final (losing to Gauff in three tight sets). She also enjoyed an incredible three-event stretch from San Diego through Stuttgart, picking up two runner-up finishes and a semi-final run at Indian Wells.She has lost her last two matches but that’s to be expected for young players finding their way. Kostyuk is an inventive shot-maker who should thrive on these surfaces.
Longshot options- Sloane Stephens and Yulia Putintseva
Lastly, I’ll take a look at two longshots who currently sit outside the top 30 in the world. While neither is likely to go all the way, they’re hardly the sort of opponent that you want to run into early doors.
Stephens
You just cannot ignore Sloane Stephens in this event. The American looked set for world domination at one point, winning the 2017 US Open and reaching the 2018 French Open final. Things never quite worked out that way but she has still got a pretty incredible record in Paris, finishing in the fourth round or better in nine of her 11 appearances (including that runner-up finish and two-quarter-final appearances).
That’s pretty sensational. And she arrives with a clay-court victory to her name this season, winning the inaugural staging of the Open de Rouen. Her form has plateaued quite badly since then but you can rest assured that she will give this tournament her undivided attention.
Putintseva
29-year-old Kazakh Yulia Putintseva has perhaps been the surprise comeback story of the season. The occasionally combustible Putintseva lost some of her on-court spark in recent years. But she had a coaching reshuffle towards the end of last season, hiring Matteo Donati. And she credits him with helping her rediscover that inner tiger.
Putinseva has been excellent this season, following a round of 16 run at Indian Wells with back-to-back quarter-finals in Miami and Madrid. She is a two-time French Open quarter-finalist and I don’t think any of the top players will want that smoke in the early stages of the tournament.
