The prestigious Wimbledon Championships returns to the All England Club. Damien Kayat has a look at the top contenders, midtier choices and longshot options.
It’s that time of the year again when the mere sight of strawberries and cream elicits a pang of nostalgic joy in my brain. An event steeped in occasionally pedantic tradition (just ask Andre Agassi), Wimbledon was and always will be my favourite sporting event in the calendar year.
2024 WTA Tour – Grand Slam Tennis
Wimbledon Championships
All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club
1 – 14 July
There’s just something magical about this two-week window where the entire sporting world is fixated on grass-court tennis. Let’s be honest, very few people have been kicking their feet up at home to catch what is happening at Eastbourne this week.
This is the only time when people ever watch traditional grass-court tennis. That niche quality has certainly helped contribute to its elevated prestige.
Marketa Vondrousova emerged as the shock champion last year and that’s something I love about the Ladies’ Wimbledon Championships: their unpredictability. In fact, there have been seven different winners in the last seven renewals of this event.
Can Iga Swiatek join the list of all-time greats with victory in this event? The undisputed World No.1 is yet to fully convince on grass courts and many feel that she needs a Wimbledon title to solidify her legendary status.
Coco Gauff has been a model of consistency over the last few years, forcing the tennis community to reconfigure the so-called ‘Big Three’ into a newly revamped ‘Big Four’.
Aryna Sabalenka- once considered a Grand Slam underachiever- is now a two-time Aussie Open champion with the power to destroy anyone. And then you quiet assassin Elena Rybakina, calmly winning multiple tournaments each season to become one of the most feared players in the game.
Can Emma Radacanu or Katie Boulter send the home crowd into delirium with deep runs this year? There are just a million different subplots at play and this should make for a fascinating fortnight of Grand Slam tennis.
Past Champions
- 2023: Marketa Vondrousova bt Ons Jabeur (6-4, 6-4)
- 2022: Elena Rybakina bt Ons Jabeur (3-6, 6-2, 6-2)
- 2021: Ashleigh Barty bt Karolina Pliskova (6-3, 6-7, 6-3)
- 2020: no event due to Covid
- 2019: Simona Halep bt Serena Williams (6-2, 6-2)
- 2018: Angelique Kerber bt Serena Williams (6-3, 6-3)
Grass-court precursors this season
- Libema Open: Liudmila Samsonova bt Bianca Andreescu (4-6, 6-3, 7-5)
- Nottingham Open: Katie Boulter bt Karolina Pliskova (4-6, 6-3, 6-2)
- Berlin Ladies Open: Jessica Pegula bt Anna Kalinskaya (6-7, 6-4, 7-6)
- Birmingham Classic: Yulia Putintseva bt Alja Tomljanovic (6-1, 7-6)
- Eastbourne International and Bad Homburg Open: in progress
The ‘Big Four’
Iga Swiatek
Iga Swiatek has done what she does during the clay-court swing, creating a healthy gap between herself and the other women in the rankings. She has decided to eschew the grass-court precursors to give her body a chance to heal.
And I get it, the Pole has gone 45-4 in what has already been a hectic campaign. But how is she ever going to evolve on grass if she never plays on it?
She reached the quarters here last season, but I still think she will struggle to acclimate to the lower bounce. I just can’t see her making those adjustments time.
Coco Gauff
Reigning US Open champion Coco Gauff is now officially a member of the ‘Big Four’. She is 30-10 this season, winning in Auckland and picking up a further five semi-final appearances (two of those coming in the slams).
This has vaulted her to the No.2 seeding for the first time in her Grand Slam career and she should feel quite confident after a semi-final run in Berlin.
Still, I do think her presence in the ‘Big Four’ is somewhat misleading, born out of amazing consistency rather than utter dominance. I still think that the other three players have a fear-factor that Gauff simply doesn’t possess as of yet.
I probably give her a slightly better chance of winning these championships than Swiatek.
Aryna Sabalenka
I think that the third and fourth seeds are the real danger women this year. This has been a challenging season for third seed Aryna Sabalenka.
She started the year brilliantly, winning her second successive Aussie Open to underline her status as one of the world’s leading players. But she had to deal with some off-court tragedy and she is yet to win a title since Melbourne (twice going down to Swiatek in clay-court finals).
She also had to withdraw from her Berlin quarter-final with Kalinskaya due to a shoulder issue. Still, Sabalenka has turned into a Grand Slam behemoth of late and I’m sure that she will be firing on all cylinders come game time.
She has reached the quarter-finals or better in each of her last seven slams. This included a semi-final run here last season, where she somehow conspired to lose to Jabuer despite leading by a set and a break.
Her massive serve and huge groundstrokes will allow her to breeze by opponents in the early stages. I really think this could be her year.
Elena Rybakina
I also think that Elena Rybakina stands a decent chance. The Kazakh obviously won this title back in 2022 and then backed that up with a quarter-final finish last season.
She has arguably the biggest serve in the business and her no-frills, attacking brand of tennis suits these courts perfectly. She has already won three titles this season and she looks well poised for another Wimbledon title push.
Sure, she did have to withdraw from Berlin due to illness (which caused her to actually skip Eastbourne entirely). But she has been lamenting the tour schedule all season and I think she is just making sure that she is 100% ready for this title charge.
My Top Ten Picks
There are quite a few top-ten seeds that I can readily dismiss this week. Jasmine Paolini was incredible in Paris but she is just not well suited to these surfaces (she has been eliminated in the 1st round here in each of the last three seasons).
Qinwen Zheng has struggled to come down from the high of that Aussie Open final appearance while Maria Sakari has been in dreadful form.
Jessica Pegula is an intriguing case. Essentially the Andrey Rublev of women’s tennis, Pegula has lost all six of her Grand Slam quarter-finals (including here last year). She recently won a grass-court title in Berlin but I think that her Grand Slam mental scarring will come into effect again.
Marketa Vondrousova
My first pick is defending Wimbledon champ Marketa Vondrousova. The lefty took the event by storm last year, using her unique, crafty style to fashion a truly breathtaking win.
She is a master of the drop-shot and that is a brilliant weapon on surfaces that don’t offer much bounce. She has had a pretty ordinary campaign, reaching the quarter-finals in Dubai and the semi-finals in Stuttgart.
But she once again demonstrated her Grand Slam mettle with a quarter-final run at Wimbledon.
She did withdraw from her Berlin match with Kalinskaya but that was largely precautionary. I see her as a lefty version of Jabeur, bamboozling players with her range of shot-making.
Ons Jabeur
Speaking of the Tunisian playmaker, you certainly feel like Jabeur has a score to settle with this tournament. Jabeur has finished runner-up in the last two editions of this event, memorably breaking down in tears after her agonising defeat to Vondrousova last year.
The three-time Grand Slam runner-up has struggled with injuries this season and was forced to withdraw from her Berlin quarter-final with Gauff. But that was likely just an attempt to keep her body fresh for the travails of Wimbledon.
Jabeur is an exceptional grass-court operator, winning titles in Birmingham and Berlin to go with her two Wimbledon runner-up finishes.
She has been the most consistent player here over the last few years and the surfaces are a bit more forgiving on the body.
The Mid-tier Choices
I’m willing to dodge Danielle Collins this time around (though that could come and bite me later on). The American has been a revelation since announcing her impending retirement, winning titles in Miami and Charleston during an incredible rankings surge.
But the 11th seed hasn’t played since an ignominious French Open exit and she has never progressed beyond the third round at SW19.
Nottingham champ Liudmila Samsonova is simply too inconsistent and don’t get me started on trying to back Jelena Ostapenko.
Madison Keys
My first pick in this mid-range has to be Madison Keys. The 12th-seeded American is a perennial Grand Slam heavyweight, reaching the quarter-final stage or better on ten occasions.
She reached the quarter-finals at Wimbledon last season and has three grass-court titles to her name (winning Eastbourne last year). More importantly, she comes into this event in great form.
She is 14-3 since the start of the Madrid Open (though she is currently in action in Eastbourne). She has a powerful serve and relentless forehand (an ideal combination for success at SW19).
Anna Kalinskaya
I think that 25-year-old Russian Anna Kalinskaya could represent great value this week. Kalinskaya has struggled with injuries over the last few years and that has translated into some schizophrenic form.
But she has really stabilized this year, reaching a maiden Grand Slam quarter-final in Melbourne and a first WTA 1000 final in Dubai. And she just showed off her grass-court prowess, losing to Pegula in an exceptionally tight Berlin final.
She has an amazing forehand that utterly dominated Swiatek when they met in Dubai earlier this season. I just think she’s a really dangerous dark horse pick this year.
The Longshot Options
Mirra Andreeva
My first longshot pick has to be 17-year-old Russian sensation Mirra Andreeva. Billed as the next Sharapova, the teenager rose to prominence last year by reaching the Wimbledon fourth round as a 16-year-old (giving off major Coco Gauff vibes in the process).
She has proven to be a real Grand Slam threat this season, reaching the fourth round in Melbourne before a spellbinding semi-final run in Paris.
These courts should suit her ultra-aggressive brand of tennis and I think she has what it takes to make a real impact this year.
Katie Boulter
My last pick for the fortnight has to be Britain’s own Katie Boulter. I know that Emma Radacanu holds a special place in the British collective psyche (she was the first British woman to win a Grand Slam since Virginia Wade in 1977).
And I know she just secured her first-ever top-10 win against Jessica Pegula. But Katie Boulter makes much more sense if you are in the market for a crowd-pleasing British success story.
The 32nd seed has enjoyed a brilliant season, winning titles in San Diego and Nottingham (where she defended her title).
She is currently scheduled to play in the Eastbourne quarter-finals and I think her combination of big serve and forehand make her a tough proposition this year.
