The China Open continues this week as Paula Badosa faces Zhang Shuai while Coco Gauff goes up against Yulia Starodubtseva in the quarter-final. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 WTA Tour – WTA 1000
China Open
China National Tennis Centre
Selected QF matches – 3 October
Paula Badosa 19/100 | Zhang Shuai 7/2
Paula Badosa has enjoyed an incredible 2nd half of the season, overcoming a series of debilitating injuries to break back into the top 20 in the world.
The former World No.2 improved her 2024 record to 33-16 with an impressive straight-sets win over in-form Jessica Pegula. She won an incredible 95% of her first-serve points in the match, somehow managing to bagel the industrious American in the second.
Badosa has been in inspirational form of late, winning in Washington before an excellent semifinal run in Cincinnati. She then produced a solid run in New York, going down to Emma Navarro in the US Open quarterfinals.
Those cortisone injections have been a godsend and it’s just lovely to see her operating at peak capacity once again. She is 17-3 since the start of the Washington Open and is yet to drop a set all week. The Spanish baseliner has paired precision with power in Beijing, hitting the ball with consistent depth throughout the tournament.
Speaking of remarkable comebacks – you could potentially make a movie out of Zhang Shuai’s Beijing heroics. The 35-year-old veteran- a two-time Grand Slam quarterfinalist – came into this tournament on an incredible 24-match losing streak! She hadn’t won a singles match in over 600 days – the second-longest women’s losing streak in the Open Era.
The injury-plagued Chinese star wrestled with retirement, plummeting to 595 in the world on the eve of this event. But she has found something magical in her home event, winning four matches in seven days (not dropping a set in the process).
This included a barely believable straight-sets win over 2024 breakthrough star Emma Navarro. She is now the lowest-ranked player to reach the quarterfinals here in the tournament’s history.
Perhaps she found something when reaching the US Open double’s final alongside Kristina Mladenovic. In any event, Shuai will enjoy fanatical home support as she looks to stop the Badosa-express.
The Verdict: Badosa to win in three 31/10
This will be their first career meeting. I think you can expect plenty of long rallies here. Badosa is the harder hitter and will likely force the pace. Shuai will scamper around and look to extend rallies as much as possible.
I think that Shuai – with the crowd firmly behind her – could very well nick a set here. Badosa’s fitness still has to be managed and Shuai is yet to drop a set all week. Having said that, Badosa’s greater power off both wings should see her prevail in the end.
Coco Gauff 17/100 | Yulia Starodubtseva 39/100
This has been a bit of a surreal season for 2023 US Open champion Coco Gauff. She started the year in blinding fashion, winning a 7th career title at the Auckland Open. But she hasn’t reached a final since, eliminated in the semifinal stage in five events (including the French Open).
Her form has nosedived considerably of late, and this marks her first quarterfinal run since Berlin. She was uncharacteristically poor during the North American hardcourt circuit, struggling with serving yips and reoccurrences of her forehand issues.
But she has looked reinvigorated in Beijing, not dropping a set in her first three matches. She has still served 15 double faults this week, but her forehand has been far more cooperative.
Her net play has been excellent and gives her an added dimension against some of the more stationery baseliners.
This has been an outstanding little period in the career of 24-year-old Ukrainian Yulia Starodubtseva. She came to the professional circuit later than most, opting to play collegiate tennis at Old Dominion University.
She showed some real promise at ITF level last year, winning four titles (three on hardcourts). And she has really enjoyed a solid burst of form in recent times, reaching her first WTA quarterfinal at the recent Jasmin Open.
She has looked even more impressive in Beijing, winning six consecutive matches (including qualifiers). She is yet to drop a set in Beijing, picking up the biggest win of her career against Anna Kalinskaya (bageling the Russian in the 2nd set). She has been dominant on serve and possesses outstanding court coverage.
The Verdict: Gauff to win in three 32/10
This will be their first career meeting. I think that the Ukrainian could pose the American some problems. She keeps the ball in play brilliantly and will force Gauff to hit shot after shot.
The American has tended to leak errors of late and Starodubtseva has the rally-resistance to bring out some of those issues. I still think that Gauff will prevail but I think the American in three is the best value.
