The 2024 Women’s French Open continues this week as top seed Iga Swiatek faces late blooming Italian ace Jasmine Paolini in a highly-anticipated final.
2024 WTA Tour – Grand Slam Tennis
French Open
Stade Roland Garros
Final – 8 June 2024
Iga Swiatek 1/16 | Jasmine Paolini 15/2
This looks set to be a classic ‘David vs Goliath’ final, with clay-court demigoddess Iga Swiatek coming up against late-blooming Italian ace Jasmine Paolini.
Swiatek has looked as implacable as ever since that minor second-round hiccup against Naomi Osaka, bulldozing her way through Coco Gauff in yet another merciless chapter in that lopsided rivalry. 28-year-old Jasmine Paolini demolished teenage sensation Mirra Andreeva to continue her dream season.
With Jannik Sinner still very much alive in the men’s draw, the pugnacious Paolini could be part of the most famous week in Italian tennis history.
Iga Swiatek
Iga Swiatek’s march towards a fourth Roland Garros title is looking as inevitable as a Rublev racquet smash. She has only lost one French Open match in the last five years (to Maria Sakkari in the 2021 quarter-finals).
She is 34-2 at the French Open and she is currently working an incredible 18-match winning streak. Having said all that, that win over Gauff was probably her weakest performance since that comeback win over Osaka.
She hit 14 unforced errors to just ten winners (the first time in the tournament where she had a negative ratio of errors to winners). Sure, the blustery conditions didn’t help. But she did get rushed by Gauff on a few occasions and made a couple of uncharacteristic lapses in judgement.
Also, her first-serve win percentage of 64.3% was the lowest it has been all tournament. You could chalk that up to typical semi-final nerves but it does go to show that Swiatek isn’t unbeatable.
Let’s not kid ourselves though, Paolini is going to need a minor miracle to take down the Pole in this type of form. Swiatek is looking to join Serena Williams as the only other woman to win Madrid, Rome and Paris in the same season.
She is also looking to become the first woman to win three successive titles since Justin Henin (2007-2009). She is currently 4-0 in Grand Slam finals, winning two of her three French Open finals in straight sets. She needed three sets to overcome a spirited Karolina Muchova last season.
Her forehand has been absolutely lethal and her movement remains unequalled. She plays with a sense of urgency that quickly takes the game out of her opponent’s hands. Paolini will need to withstand a typical early onslaught if she stands any chance of usurping the Queen of Clay.
Jasmine Paolini
Slow and steady wins the race. That’s a mantra that can certainly be applied to Jasmine Paolini’s career. The 28-year-old has made incremental progress over the years, reaching four WTA 250 finals between 2021 and 2023.
But nothing could have prepared us for her explosive 2024 surge. It actually started in pretty ominous fashion, as she reached the 4th round of a slam for the first time at the Aussie Open. But it was her unheralded run to the Dubai title that really announced her arrival as a true top-tier threat. Still, few would have included her among their dark horse picks for this title.
The diminutive Italian has worked tirelessly to turn that forehand into an absolute cannon. She generates plenty of topspin on that forehand wing while she hits it flatter off the backhand side, preferring to take that shot a bit earlier. That natural variety makes her a perfect fit for the clay.
She started this tournament with some favourable matches and I really thought that she was going to get smoked by Rybakina. But I underestimated the durability of Paolini. She took advantage of very windy conditions to see off Rybakina in a scrappy three-set affair.
And she was absolutely exceptional against media darling Mirra Andreeva, pulverizing the Russian teenager with her brutal forehand. I also loved the way she incorporated drop-shots into the match (something which Gauff should have used far more regularly against Swiatek). Paolini is the first Italian woman to reach the final here since Sara Errani back in 2012.
Curiously, Paolini and Errani are scheduled to play in the double’s semi-final later today. Projected to enter the top ten after her performances this fortnight, Paolini may possess the devil-may-care approach necessary to challenge the seemingly unbeatable Swiatek.
The Verdict: Swiatek to win in straight sets 23/100
Swiatek leads the head-to-head 2-0, comfortably seeing off the Italian in their previous meeting at last year’s US Open. In fact, the Pole leads Paolini 24-6 in actual games played. Paolini has clearly blossomed since then but those stats are troubling.
I actually think that Paolini will do better than most people think. She used the drop-shot exquisitely against Andreeva and that could prove a crucial weapon in destabilising the Pole’s routine.
I also think she has the aggression to truly pounce on Swiatek’s serve. Let’s be honest, Swiatek’s serve is far from elite. You have to approach every return game with an aggressive mentality. The issue comes from Paolini’s delivery. It isn’t a massive weapon and Swiatek will threaten to break on almost every service game.
All in all, Swiatek will almost certainly overcome the Italian. She is hitting that forehand brilliantly and her general know-how on these surfaces is undeniable. Perhaps backing over 18.5 games at 11/10 will offer some value.
