The 2024 Women’s French Open continues this week as second seed Aryna Sabalenka faces Mirra Andreeva while Elena Rybakina goes up against Jasime Paolini in the quarter-finals.
2024 WTA Tour – Grand Slam Tennis
French Open
Stade Roland Garros
Selected Quarter-finals Matches – 4 June 2024
Aryna Sabalenka 24/100 | Mirra Andreeva 29/10
World No.2 Arya Sabalenka has been in utterly devastating form this fortnight, advancing to yet another Grand Slam quarter-final. Her emphatic 4th round win over Emma Navarro took her to eleven consecutive Grand Slam victories without dropping a set.
The Belarusian’s serve has bailed her out of every remotely sticky situation and she is just moving better on these surfaces with every passing day.
There was a little part of me that wondered whether the Belarusian may be somewhat despiritualised after those back-to-back final defeats to Iga Swiatek. But Sabalenka is playing with immense freedom at present, punishing whatever has been put in front of her.
One would have thought that the slightly slower conditions may have worked against her power-based game. But she continues to show why she is currently the 2nd best clay-court player in the world. A semi-finalist here last year, Sabalenka will look to make the final four again as she comes up against teenage sensation Mirra Andreeva.
The 17-year-old Russian showed amazing poise in her 4th round clash with Varvara Gracheva, taking down the recently nationalised Frenchwoman in straight sets in front of a highly partisan- and Parisian- crowd.
In the process, Andreeva became the youngest woman since Sesil Karatantcheva in 2005 to reach a Roland Garros quarter-final. Andreeva has looked brilliant this fortnight, dropping just one set against former World No.1 Victoria Azarenka. Still just 17 years of age, Andreeva doesn’t yet possess a massive weapon in her arsenal.
But she redirects the ball brilliantly and her movement has been impeccable. She already broke ground with her 4th round run in Melbourne earlier this year, becoming the youngest woman in the Open Era to bagel a top-ten opponent (Ons Jabeur) at a Slam. She reached the quarter-finals in Madrid a month ago (where she was soundly beaten by a certain Belarusian).
Still, her performances have earned new admirers this fortnight and maybe she could be the player to finally expose the Sabalenka nerves of old.
The Verdict: Sabalenka to win in straight sets 13/20
This honestly isn’t the worst price considering Sabalenka’s insane form and Andreeva’s inexperience. Also, Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 2-0, drubbing the Russian when they met in last month’s Madrid Open. I just can’t see any way that Andreeva lives with the pure-hitting power of Sabalenka.
She will look to redirect and extend rallies as long as possible but you basically need a massive weapon to stand any chance against Sabalenka in this kind of form.
Elena Rybakina 2/7 | Jasime Paolini 26/10
Elna Rybakina booked her place in the quarter-finals courtesy of a comfortable 6-4, 6-3 win over potential banana peel Elina Svitolina. The Kazakh star was devastating throughout the win, hitting 26 winners (including five aces).
I also loved the variety she deployed, constantly using her drop-shot to bring Svitolina to the net. She also won 12 of 18 points at the net, showing that she isn’t content to simply deal in baseline brutality. The result improved her 2024 record to a sparkling 34-5.
She is into her tour-leading 9th quarter-final of the season and this will be just her second career quarter-final here (she went out at this stage in 2021). Rybakina is the one player left in the draw with a positive head-to-head record against Swiatek.
She has also improved immeasurably on clay in recent seasons, winning in Rome last year before picking up a title in Stuttgart earlier this campaign. She is on a head-on collision to play Sabalenka in the semi-finals but next up for the Kazakh is Italian late bloomer Jasmine Paolini.
Diminutive Italian Jasmine Paolini has been an absolute breath of fresh air this season, storming into the mainstream tennis consciousness for the first time at the age of 28. To be fair, the Italian was a four-time WTA finalist prior to this season, winning her maiden title at the 2021 Slovenia Open.
But nobody could have possibly envisaged the impact she would have this season. She began the year in pretty ominous fashion, reaching the 4th round of a slam for the first time in Melbourne. But it was her exploits in Dubai that really solidified her status as a player to watch.
She produced a heroic performance to win her maiden WTA 1000 title, harnessing every shred of power she could out of that small frame. Her serve has improved significantly while her forehand is an obvious weapon.
Her 4th round victory over Avanesyan improved her clay-court record to 8-3 this year and also helped her book a maiden Grand Slam quarter-final appearance. She has benefitted from a favourable draw though this encounter will be a serious uptick in difficulty.
The Verdict: Rybakina to win in straight sets 71/100
Rybakina leads the head-to-head 2-1, winning a tight Stuttgart quarter-final earlier this season. Paolini also lost to Rybakina when they met in Rome last year. The Italian might have a slight edge in mobility over the Kazakh but Rybakina trumps her in every other department.
Paolini can’t afford to start like she did against Avanesyan or this could be a quick affair. And that’s exactly what I expect to see. Rybakina has the bit between her teeth and I can see her slaughtering Paolini with her brand of aggressive first-strike tennis. Perhaps playing under 19.5 games at 11/10 could offer some more value.
