The 2024 Women’s French Open continues this week as the in-form Iga Swiatek faces Coco Gauff for a spot in the tournament's finals.
2024 WTA Tour – Grand Slam Tennis
French Open
Stade Roland Garros
Selected Semi-finals Matches – 5 June 2024
Iga Swiatek 1/9 | Coco Gauff 52/10
Can anyone stop Iga Swiatek’s seemingly inevitable march towards a third successive French Open title? The Pole has been playing with sadistic relish since a nerve-wracking second-round comeback win over Naomi Osaka. Next up she meets familiar foe and regular punching bag Coco Gauff. The American has experienced some high-profile losses to Swiatek in Paris but she will be banking on a newly revamped serve to bring down the clay-court savant.
Iga Swiatek
World No.1 Iga Swiatek has been in absolutely brutal form since uncharacteristically struggling against Naomi Osaka in the 2nd round. I think that the indoor conditions in that match flummoxed Swiatek, minimizing the impact of some of her more exaggerated topspin.
But she hasn’t lost a set since as she gears up to play in her fourth French Open semi-final in five seasons. Many observers- myself excluded- thought that quarter-final opponent Marketa Vondrousova could have the variety to destabilise the Pole.
But Swiatek quickly dismissed that idea, bageling the former Roland Garros finalist in the first set before closing out the match 6-0, 6-2. She won 23 of 26 first-serve points despite not serving an ace. She hit 25 winners to 10 unforced errors in a truly emphatic display.
Swiatek has looked borderline unplayable at times, winning 20 consecutive games over three matches (one against Bouzkova, 12 against Potapova and seven against Vondrousova). I want to lay claim to nicknaming her ‘the Baker’ in reference to the amount of bagels she delivers.
I think that the Osaka near-death experience scared her and she hasn’t allowed any complacency to sneak in since then. That win over Vondorusova improved her sensational Roland Garros record to a staggering 33-2. It also meant she has now won 17 matches on the bounce (winning titles in Madrid and Rome).
Coco Gauff
It’s easy to forget that Coco Gauff is still just 20 years of age (it feels like she has been on tour for more than a decade). The reigning US Open champion made it three consecutive Grand Slam semi-finals with a fighting comeback win over sentimental favourite Ons Jabeur.
The Tunisian really had Gauff’s number in that first set, manoeuvring the American around with that forehand and throwing in her characteristic array of drop-shots. But the American just hung in there and got better as the match progressed, stripping winners off both wings.
Her crosscourt backhand was particularly effective and she served pretty well, winning 39 of her 56 first-serve points. Still, four double-faults is a bit concerning coming into a match where she is sure to have a bundle of nerves.
Gauff had looked serene in Paris before that first-set hiccup against Jabeur, not dropping a set in her previous four matches. As I alluded to earlier, Gauff has now reached three consecutive Grand Slam semi-finals. She will be hoping that the work she has done on converting her serve into a more dynamic weapon pays dividends as she goes up against her arch-nemesis. I really feel that Gauff has to go for broke in this match.
Vondrousova was simply too passive against Swiatek, allowing the Pole to take the initiative in virtually every point. Gauff needs to paint the lines and remain aggressive. Gauff’s forehand has certainly shown some signs of improvement and she will need to step in every time Swiatek misses a first serve.
The Verdict: Swiatek to win in straight sets 37/100
Swiatek has obviously dominated the head-to-head, leading the American 10-1 in an almost comically lopsided ‘rivalry’. And those stats don’t get any prettier when you go deeper.
Gauff’s three-set win in Cincinnati last year was the only time she has ever taken a set off the Pole. Swiatek beat Gauff in straight sets a few weeks back in Rome. She routed Gauff in the 2022 final and was also fairly comprehensive when they met in last year’s quarters.
Gauff needs to keep that first-serve percentage up if she stands any chance here. I also think that crosscourt backhand could be a dangerous weapon if she finds the right range.
I just can’t imagine a universe where Swiatek loses this. It’s like she got a glimpse into a parallel dimension against Osaka, one in which she didn’t win the French Open this year. And she didn’t like it. Gauff has been coughing up double faults like confetti over the last few months and Swiatek’s relentless returning should result in a slew of them.
I think this game could be slightly tighter than people predict and maybe backing over 18.5 games at 79/100 will make some betting sense.
