The WTA Tour’s Miami Open continues this week as we enter the round of 16. Damien Kayat previews two Ro16 matches: Elena Rybakina’s clash against Madison Keys and Jessica Pegula’s tie against Emma Navarro.
2024 WTA Tour – WTA 1000
Miami Open
Hard Rock Stadium
Selected Ro16 Matches – Monday 25 February
Elena Rybakina 7/20 | Madison Keys 43/20
Kazakh sensation Elena Rybakina has recovered from the illness that forced her to withdraw from Indian Wells. The big-serving 24-year-old hasn’t looked her dismissive best this fortnight, requiring three sets to edge past both Tauson and Townsend.
But she has proven to be a tremendous big-match player in recent seasons and I think she will just gather momentum as the tournament progresses. She lost to Petra Kvitova in last year’s Miami final and she will feel very confident of replicating that type of run.
She has already reached three finals this season (winning titles in Brisbane and Abu Dhabi). She plays the type of first-strike tennis that is very much in vogue these days, looking to dominate with her serve and devastating forehand.
The fearless abandon with which she plays actually reminds me of World No.1 Iga Swiatek. But she has been leaking plenty of errors this fortnight and she will need to tighten that up if she wishes to claim this year’s title.
American Madison Keys has always been a bit of an enigma to me. On her day, the Illinois native can look close to unplayable. And she has enjoyed some memorable results over the years, reaching the quarter–final stage or better at 10 Grand Slam events (including an excellent semi-final run at last year’s US Open).
It just feels like she should have more than seven titles to her name. Keys has only reached the quarter-finals of this event once in 12 previous events. That pretty much sums up the unfulfilled potential of Keys.
She missed the first portion of the season due to a shoulder injury and only returned to action at Indian Wells (where she was comprehensively thrashed by Putintseva). But she has looked reinvigorated in Miami, beating both Shnaider and Wang in straight-sets. She served very solidly against Wang, winning 71% of her first-serve points.
Keys has a very similar power-based game to Rybakina and this should make for a brutal slugfest
Verdict: Rybakina to win in straight sets at 86/100
Keys holds a slender 2-1 head-to-head advantage over the Kazakh. However, Rybakina won their last meeting back in 2022. I know that it is slightly tempting to go for the Keys victory (especially when you look at their earlier rounds).
But I just have the feeling that Rybakina will click into gear here. Rybakina is brilliant at redirecting power and I can see her giving Keys plenty of yardage to cover.
Jessica Pegula 52/100 | Emma Navarro 29/20
Jessica Pegula is really the Andrey Rublev of women’s tennis. Still yet to progress beyond the quarter-final of a Slam, the American has nonetheless managed to stay afloat in the world rankings due to her brilliant tour-level play.
And she has been one of the most consistent WTA 1000 players in recent years, reaching the semi-final stage or better in eight events dating back to 2021. She may not have the massive weapons of Swiatek or Sabalenka. But she is extremely consistent with her depth of shot and she is one of the best natural athletes in the game.
She will feel slightly disappointed with the trajectory of her season. The American is yet to reach a final this year, bowing out early in the Aussie Open and Indian Wells Masters. But she is extremely comfortable at the Hard Rock Stadium, reaching back-to-back semi-finals in the last two seasons.
She is yet to drop a set in this year’s event and she will go into this match as the favourite.
This has been a wonderful breakthrough year for 22-year-old Emma Navarro. The former NCAA champion came into the season ranked just inside the top 40 in the world. But she has shot into the top 20 after a sequence of eye-catching results.
She enjoyed a fantastic Australasian Swing, reaching the semi-finals in Auckland before claiming a maiden WTA title in Hobart. She would later go on to reach the semi-finals in San Diego before an extremely encouraging Indian Wells run.
She beat World No.2 Aryna Sabalenka in the Californian desert, reaching the quarterfinals of a WTA 1000 event for the first time in her career (though Sabalenka was likely a bit distracted by off-court tragedy).
Nonetheless, Navarro is one of the most upwardly mobile players out there. She is a real ball of energy, throwing in plenty of slice to go with her solid groundstrokes. She certainly isn’t one-dimensional and that should help her moving forward.
She just took down Dubai champ Paolini in three sets and I don’t think she is a flash-in-the-pan success.
Verdict: Navarro to win in three sets
48/10- This will be the first career meeting between these two. I think that Navarro has a decent chance of pulling off an upset win in this all-American clash.
She is playing really intelligent tennis this season and Pegula has played a fearful amount of tennis these past three years or so. Navarro looks fresher and I think her ability to take pace of the ball could disrupt Pegula’s steady rhythm.
