We move into the business end of the WTA Tour’s Miami Open with Beatriz Haddad Maia facing Katie Boulter and Jelena Osapenko taking on Anna Kalinskaya on Sunday in the round of 32.
2024 WTA Tour – WTA 1000
Miami Open
Hard Rock Stadium
Selected Round of 32 Matches – 24 March 2024
Beatriz Haddad Maia 71/100 | Katie Boulter 11/10
Could this be the tournament where Brazilian Beatriz Haddad Maia regains some of her lost momentum? The big-serving lefty overcame a slew of injuries- and a significant doping suspension- to roar into the top ten last season.
She plays well on quicker surfaces, using her powerful serve and volleying skills to play incisive first-strike tennis. But she also has sound defensive abilities when things get a little scrappy. And she has one thing that Katie Boulter does not have: big-match experience.
She finished runner-up at the 2022 Canadian Open and also reached the semi-finals at Roland Garros last year. She started this year in pretty decent fashion, reaching the third round of the Aussie Open before a notable semi-final run in Abu Dhabi. But her form has nosedived since then.
In fact, her Indian Wells win over Sramkova ended a worrying four-match losing streak. And she struggled for rhythm in her opener against Parry, coming back from a set down to reach the 3rd round here for the third consecutive year.
British No.1 Katie Boulter is safely into the third round, benefitting from the retirement of Czech teenager Brenda Fruhvirtova. And I think the Brit will be secretly relieved that the match ended prematurely. She looked shaky out there, dropping her first service game in absolutely sweltering conditions.
She showed grit to claw back the deficit and was definitely in the ascendancy by the end (even if it was against an ailing opponent). Boulter won her maiden WTA Tour title last season, ending the year ranked inside the top 50 in the world. She has already topped that this year, winning her first WTA 500 title on the San Diego hardcourts (more on that in a second).
She struggled on the sluggish Indian Wells surfaces, going down in straight sets to Camela Giorgi. She has a real point to prove this week. She has a truly horrendous WTA 1000 record (this is actually her maiden third round run at this level).
I think there’s always going to be a question mark hanging over the Brit until she produces the goods in an elite event.
Verdict: Haddad Maia to win in straight sets at 31/20
The Brit actually won only previous meeting earlier this year, coming back from a set down en route to her San Diego Open title. But I think the wily Brazilian will have learnt from that outing.
Boulter’s game has undoubtedly improved but I still think she’s too dependent on her attacking repertoire. She needs to learn how to win points from defensive positions if she wants to take that next step forward.
Jelena Ostapenko 72/100 | Anna Kalinskaya 21/20
This is a pretty enticing third-round tie. Latvian superstar Jelena Ostapenko will be looking to bounce back after her first-round Indian Wells loss to Kerber. Ostapenko has somehow managed to become one of the more consistent players on the WTA Tour.
She reached two Grand Slam quarter-finals last season and she has already claimed two titles this year (in Brisbane and Linz). Oft-criticized for her flamboyantly aggressive approach, Ostapenko has embraced her maverick persona, often pairing her cray shot-making with deliciously silly on-court theatrics.
Ostapenko reached the final of this event in 2018 (though that was the last year the event was played in Key Biscayne). She will be looking to reach the fourth round of this event for the second consecutive year as she meets 2024 breakout star Anna Kalinskaya.
Anna Kalinskaya has really come out of nowhere this year. The 25-year-old Russian- still yet to win a WTA title- was ranked outside the top 100 at the end of last year. She plays a pretty generic brand of baseline tennis and she just didn’t seem to have what it takes to compete at the very top level.
So, you could have been forgiven for not paying her too much attention going into this year’s Aussie Open (she had never gone beyond the second round of a Slam in her career). But she defied expectations, reaching the quarter-finals and to jumpstart her faltering career.
Then she produced an even more incredible showing in Dubai, becoming only the second qualifier in WTA history to reach the final of a WTA 1000 event (she lost to the similarly unfancied Jasmine Paolini). She lost to the Italian again at Indian Wells but she looked in fine fettle in her Miami opener, taking down Wang in pretty merciless fashion.
Verdict: Ostapenko to win in straight sets at 16/10
Interestingly, Kalinskaya actually leads their head-to-head 2-0. This included a straight-sets win in Dubai earlier this season. It appears that the Latvian has struggled with Kalinskaya’s more metronomic approach.
The Russian knows that Ostapenko will likely err if she puts enough balls back into play. But I just think that we are due a prime-Ostapenko showing. She has played well in Miami before and I can see her overwhelming the Russian with her high-octane style.
