The prestigious Wimbledon Championships at the All England Club continues this week as Jasmine Paolini faces Donna Vekic while Carlos Alcaraz goes up against Daniil Medvedev. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 ATP/WTA Tour – Grand Slam Tennis
Wimbledon Championships
All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club
Selected Semi-finals – 11-12 July
WTA Tour
Women’s Semi-final – 11 July
Jasmine Paolini 54/100 | Donna Vekic 14/10
Jasmine Paolini is just proving me wrong at every turn. I really should have paid heed to Andy Roddick’s pre-tournament predictions. He got so tired of being proved wrong by Paolini that he simply picked her to win Wimbledon on his podcast.
Paolini brutalised Emma Navarro to reach her 2nd successive Grand Slam semi-final (she finished runner-up in Paris).
The American had no answer to Paolini’s variety and courtcraft. I actually didn’t realize that Paolini’s off-court forehand was so massive (it almost reminds me of Federer’s).
She also showed exquisite touch throughout the match, toying with Navarro like a puppet on a string. And her range of volleying was simply breathtaking. And let’s put this into context: Paolini had never won a tour-level grass-court match coming into 2024!
Now, following Sinner’s shock elimination, she is the one carrying Italian hopes of a Wimbledon title. She has been exceptional this season, winning a maiden WTA 1000 title in Dubai before all this Grand Slam glory.
What a fortnight this has been for Croatian Donna Vekic. She showed tremendous resolve in her quarterfinal clash with surprise package Lulu Sun, coming back from a set down to reach her maiden Grand Slam semifinal.
She was outgunned from the back of the court in the opening set but she quickly learnt her lesson, bringing Sun into the forecourt with an array of drop-shots and off-speed slices.
Vekic would ultimately hit 32 winners to 26 unforced errors, outmaneuvering the ultra-aggressive New Zealander.
This has been a long time coming for Vekic. She has been criticized for possibly showing more interest in her off-court pursuits over the years. But she has looked absolutely laser-focused this fortnight, perhaps sensing her opportunity in a pretty unhinged women’s draw.
Vekic has spent considerably longer out there, with four of her five matches going the distance. I am also slightly concerned by her first-serve percentage against Sun. Vekic won an incredible 87% of her first-serve points against the New Zealander.
The problem is she only served at 54% for the match. She is going to need to boost those numbers to stand a chance against the pugnacious Italian.
The Verdict: Paolini to win in straight sets at 23/20
Paolini leads the rivalry 2-1, winning their last meeting in Montreal last season. I’m just going to have to pull an Andy Roddick here. Paolini has just exceeded every expectation and seems to be completely unfazed by the pressure.
Vekic overcame Lulu Sun when she started attacking the forecourt. Paolini has absolutely owned that area throughout these championships and I also think she will get plenty of 2nd serves to feast on here.
ATP Tour
Men’s Semifinal – 12 July
Carlos Alcaraz 3/10 | Daniil Medvedev 49/20
Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz has certainly not had it all his own way this fortnight. He has played in patches, occasionally frustrating fans who are desperate to see him in ‘genius’ mode.
He scraped by Frances Tiafoe in his third-round tie before another slightly unconvincing fourth round win over Humbert. And things looked a little bleak in the opening salvos of his quarterfinal clash with in-form American Tommy Paul.
The roof was once again closed and it almost looked like a clay-court match out there. Paul won an exhilarating 72-minute first set before edging into a 2-0 lead in the second.
But then the Spaniard started to knit things together, constantly creating opportunities on the American’s serve (he would take eight of 27 break-points in the match).
Alcaraz would take the remaining three sets without really playing to his potential (he only won 66% of his first-serve points in the match, hitting more unforced errors than winners).
But he just has that inalienable ability to play his best tennis in the most crucial moments. He has now won 12 consecutive Wimbledon matches as he seeks to become just the 6th man in history to win the French Open and Wimbledon in the same season.
I have to say I did not see that coming. I thought that Jannik Sinner would plough through Medvedev in their quarterfinal clash. But the World No.1 was clearly in some physical discomfort and it really opened the door for the crafty Russian.
I can’t stress how much Medvedev has improved as a grass-court player over the past few seasons. One thing that I certainly noticed in this match was his return position.
Medvedev wasn’t content to hang two metres behind the baseline like usual. He shifted position, allowing himself to get forward more often. He generally served well, winning 76% of his first-serve points.
But he did serve 11 double faults (and some wild ones at that). But I like the way he would even serve and volley if the occasion called for it.
I do think he throws in too many casual drop-shots and he will need to iron that out against the uber-athletic Alcaraz. But his forehand was in great shape and he ultimately hit 56 winners to 49 unforced errors in the match.
He has now matched his semifinal match from last season but we all know what happened when he met Alcaraz in the final four.
The Verdict: Alcaraz to win in straight sets 27/20
This has been an interesting rivalry. Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 4-2, winning their last two encounters. He utterly decimated Medvedev in last year’s Wimbledon semifinals.
But Medvedev did manage to exact some revenge by eliminating the Spaniard in the semifinal stage of the US Open. I think Medvedev should be more competitive this year (especially considering the way he is playing with his return position).
But he is going to need to be deadly accurate with that drop-shot in this match. I think Alcaraz’s athleticism takes that shot out of Medvedev’s arsenal to some extent. I just have the feeling that Alcaraz will fire on all cylinders here.
