OUTRIGHT PREVIEW: 2024 Olympic Games – Men’s tennis

Sure, the nostalgic allure of the Olympic games is not lost on the tennis fraternity. But the notoriously intense schedule of professional tennis makes the Summer Olympics something of a glorious distraction.

Let’s be real: does anyone really remember the fact that Alex Zverev won Olympic Gold in Tokyo? No. But they do remember the fact that he lost another Grand Slam final in Paris this year. The importance of the Grand Slams severely outweighs the ‘honour’ of competing for your nation every few years.

Also, this year’s event will be hosted at Roland Garros (making it the first Olympics hosted on clay since the 1992 games in Barcelona).

The players- who have just finished their grass-court swing- have to suddenly revert to a clay-court state of mind. And all of this on the eve of the North American hardcourt season.

Furthermore, there are no ranking points on offer for the players (a rule that came into effect in 2016). It’s just a logistical nightmare that could actually hinder your overall season. Some players have just decided to skip the event entirely.

Frances Tiafoe said that the US Open is his priority and he needs to start preparing for what is expected to be a hot summer. Grigor Dimitrov has also elected to skip the event. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict means that Russian and Belarusian athletes can only compete under a neutral flag. Daniil Medvedev has chosen to compete while compatriot Andrey Rublev has chosen to skip the event.

Having spread all that doom and gloom, there are some really compelling narratives at play this year. Carlos Alcaraz may not technically be World No.1, but he underlined his status as the dominant force in men’s tennis with back-to-back victories at the French Open and Wimbledon.

He will be relishing the opportunity to create even more history at Roland Garros. Jannik Sinner will want to prove that he is an authentic No.1 while Novak Djokovic will be looking to win his first Olympic gold medal. This will be the Serb’s last chance to taste Olympic success and what a time it would be to claim his first title of the season.

But perhaps the biggest story revolves around two men who could be playing in their last professional tournament: Andy Murray and Rafa Nadal. Murray is the only two-time Olympic gold medalist in singles while Rafa redefined dominance with his exploits at the French Open these past two decades. Could we possibly witness a fairytale ending to one of these storied careers?

Format

The singles competition will feature 64 players and will take place over six rounds. Almost all of the matches are set to be three-set encounters.

However, the organisers have decided to revert back to a five-set final (something that got discarded in the post-Covid Tokyo games). The three-set format should theoretically give the likes of Nadal and Murray more of a fighting chance.

Past Winners

• 2020: Alex Zverev bt Karen Khachanov (6-3, 6-1) *Tokyo
• 2016: Andy Murray bt Juan Martin del Potro (7-5, 4-6, 6-2, 7-5) *Rio
• 2012: Andy Murray bt Roger Federer (6-2, 6-1, 6-4) *London
• 2008: Rafael Nadal bt Fernando Gonzalez (6-3, 7-6, 6-3) *Beijing
• 2004: Nicolas Massu bt Mardy Fish (6-3, 3-6, 2-6, 6-3, 6-4) *Athens

The Big Three

Jannik Sinner

Jannik Sinner must be in an interesting psychological space. He won his first Grand Slam in Melbourne and he has ascended to number 1 in the world rankings.

Yet Carlos Alcaraz is the only name on anyone’s lips. He will be looking for a strong outing to prove that his ranking isn’t ornamental. However, none of his four titles this season have come on clay.

In fact, he hasn’t competed in a clay-court final this year. He looked impressive at Roland Garros, going out to Carlos Alcaraz in an epic five-set semifinal. I just have a feeling that he is more vulnerable on this surface than any other.

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic will have a point to prove in Paris. As I alluded to earlier, the Serb has never won Olympic gold and he would love to complete the career Golden Slam.

But I think his pride was seriously wounded after that Alcaraz demolition in the Wimbledon final (in what was possibly the most one-sided Grand Slam final defeat of his career).

But let’s just take a tiny step back and look at some context. He underwent knee surgery not too long ago and it was actually a minor miracle that he even competed at SW19.

The three-time French Open champion withdrew at the quarterfinal stage of this year’s event due to the aforementioned knee injury (which technically means he hasn’t tasted defeat here this year).

He is extremely experienced and I think that will come in handy when navigating this turbulent schedule.

Carlos Alcaraz

The golden boy of men’s tennis, Carlos Alcaraz is really a legend in the making. Already a four-time Grand Slam champion, Olympic glory will give tennis scribes even more reason to write hyperbolic articles about him.

But in this case, the hyperbole is almost completely warranted. Alcaraz is truly elevating the game, blending brutality and artistry in a way that we maybe haven’t seen before (talk about hyperbole).

But could this be a step too far for the Spaniard? The reigning French Open champion will go into this as the overwhelming favourite and that could bring new pressures.

Alcaraz won’t have the luxury of five-set matches to find his ideal rhythm. I do think he has the best chance among the top three but this three-set formant does introduce greater upset potential.

I also don’t expect a grand farewell for either Murray or Nadal. Murray has struggled to win successive matches this season and I can’t see him surviving the early stages.

Nadal obviously enjoyed a solid week in Sweden but this calibre of opposition is completely elevated. Sure, nobody in history can match his accomplishments on these courts. But this is quite a gruelling, compressed schedule and I can’t see his body withstanding the grind.

My Top-ten Picks

With Rublev and Dimitrov absent, I have extended this little window to include the top 12 players. Defending Olympic champion Alex Zverev has enjoyed a remarkably consistent campaign, losing in the Aussie Open semis before that heartbreaking French Open final defeat to Alcaraz.

He comes in here fresh off a runner-up finish in Hamburg but I just think there may be too much scar tissue for the German to deal with. Medvedev has never thrived on clay and I’m willing to dismiss his chances.

Alex de Minaur enjoyed a solid clay-court campaign but he – like Medvedev – just isn’t ideally suited to these conditions. I just don’t think he has a weapon that can consistently penetrate these courts.

Hubert Hurkacz has that thunderbolt serve and he should benefit from the three-set format. But I ultimately can’t see him outlasting the true clay-court specialists on display.

I would put Taylor Fritz into a similar category: he can beat anyone on his day but I just can’t see him winning six in a row. That leads me to my two selections: Casper Rudd and Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Casper Rudd is really a typical ‘horses for courses’ pick. Rudd finished runner-up at the French Open in 2022 and 2023. He backed that up with another semi-final finish this year.

His form understandably dipped during the grass-court swing but I just think the depth of that forehand will come into its own on these courts.

My other option has to be Stefanos Tsitsipas. The Greek is fresh off a solid semi-final run in Switzerland. I just think that the clay-court specialist could pull off a Zverev and mitigate his Grand Slam woes with Olympic success.

Tsitsipas was excellent on clay this year, winning in Monte-Carlo and reaching the final in Barcelona. The former French Open runner-up reached the quarterfinals this year and I think he could really benefit from these abbreviated matches.

He often labours in epic five-set matches and I can see him powering through the early stages.

My Mid-tier Choices

Tommy Paul

Currently sitting 13th in the live ATP rankings, Tommy Paul ticks plenty of boxes for me. The former Aussie Open semi-finalist has enjoyed a brilliant 2024 campaign, coming into these Olympic games with a 31-11 record for the season.

And he made some real strides on clay, beating Medvedev and Hurkacz en route to the Rome semifinals. He won Queens and pushed Alcaraz to four sets in their Wimbledon quarterfinal.

In fact, he actually outduelled Alcaraz in the opening stages of their quarterfinal, leading the Spaniard by a set and a break.

His exceptional variety sets him apart from many of his compatriots and I can see him going deep this year.

Lorenzo Musetti

My next choice is based on recent form (which can be a flimsy determinant). Lorenzo Musetti gave the performance of his life at SW19, reaching his maiden Grand Slam semifinal and producing some wonderful throwback tennis.

His forehand was dynamic and his footwork was exceptional. This is a guy who also boasts some really strong clay-court success. In 2022, he won the ATP 500 event in Hamburg (beating Carlos Alcaraz in the final).

He also reached the Monte Carlo Masters quarterfinals last season. I think he could use that Wimbledon run as a springboard to further success this season.

The Longshot Options

Jan-Lennard Struff

Jan-Lennard Struff just makes plenty of sense. He created a wonderful piece of history in Madrid last season, becoming the first lucky loser in history to reach a Masters 1000 final.

And he has played extremely consistently this year, claiming a maiden ATP Tour title on the Munich clay courts. He has registered back-to-back Grand Slam 3rd round appearances and he is fresh off a semi-final run at last week’s Swiss Open.

He has a really imposing serve and he could be dangerous in this compressed format.

Nuno Borges

I know this must seem like a knee-jerk pick, but Nuno Borges has actually been trending towards a decent result this season. This isn’t purely based on the fact that he just defeated Rafa Nadal in last week’s Swedish Open final (though that doesn’t hurt).

Borges picked up some solid clay-court results earlier this season, reaching the quarters in Estoril and the final 16 in Rome. He broke new ground towards the beginning of the season, defying expectations to reach the 4th round of the Aussie Open.

That victory over Rafa will just give him that added boost of confidence going into this event. He is competing in Austria this week but I wouldn’t be too surprised if he withdraws fairly early.