3 August
Aryna Sabalenka 7/20 | Victoria Azarenka 43/20
How on earth did World No.3 Aryna Sabalenka survive that match? The big-hitting Belarusian returned to action this week after recovering from the shoulder issue that forced her to withdraw from Wimbledon.
But she looked extremely rusty in her opening match against Kamilla Rakhimova, landing only 50% of her first-serve points in a performance characterized by erratic serving: she served 13 aces and 14 double-faults in the match.
She is obviously still favouring that shoulder through rotation and it will be interesting to see how that serve progresses this week. Sabalenka hasn’t won a title since capturing her second successive Aussie Open crown and she knows that victory here will put her hot on the heels of World No.2 Coco Gauff (who obviously doesn’t get any ranking points at the Olympics).
Sabalenka is arguably the premier hardcourt player in women’s tennis and she will have learnt plenty from that tough assignment against Rakhimova.
Speaking of former World No.1 Belarusians returning from a shoulder injury, Victoria Azarenka managed to ninja her way into the quarterfinals courtesy of a schizophrenic win against Wang Yafan. Azarenka – who turned 35 on Wednesday – has actually enjoyed one of her most consistent seasons in ages.
This week marks her seventh quarterfinal appearance of the season (she has reached three semifinals but is yet to reach a final). Her best result of the season was an excellent semifinal finish at the WTA 1000 event in Miami.
Azarenka – regardless of age – is always one of the most dangerous players in the world on hardcourts. This was evident when she reached the Aussie Open semi-finals last season. She looked exceptional in the opening stages against Wang, bageling the hapless Chinese in a whirlwind first set. But her serve faltered in the second set and she slowly let Wang back into the contest.
She ultimately had too much firepower in the third, nullifying the Chinese baseliner with a series of powerful, flat groundstrokes.
The Verdict: Sabalenka to win in three sets 83/100
Sabalenka comfortably leads her compatriot 4-1 in their head-to-head meetings (winning the last three matches in straight sets). That really makes it pretty easy for me to back the World No.3.
However, her recent shoulder injury seemed to affect her serve against Rakhimova and I’m willing to go for value and opt for a three-set Sabalenka win.