The Mubadala Citi Open continues this week as Emma Raducanu faces Paula Badosa as Aryna Sabalenka goes up against Victoria Azarenka in the quarter-finals. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 WTA Tour – WTA 500
Mubadala Citi Open
William H.G. Fitzgerald Tennis Centre
Selected QF matches – 2-3 August
2 August
Emma Raducanu 9/10 | Paula Badosa 88/100
Emma Raducanu’s decision to snub this year’s Olympics has paid dividends, with the Englishwoman advancing to the Washington quarterfinals courtesy of a straight-sets win over Peyton Stearns.
The win virtually assures the 2021 US Open champ of a place in this year’s US Open main draw. And it would seem that the oft-maligned Raducanu is finally starting to get her act together.
She has obviously endured issues with form and injury over the past few years. But she seems to be turning the corner after returning from wrist and ankle surgery. She is now 9-3 in her last four events (she was disappointingly outplayed by Lulu Sun in her Wimbledon fourth-round match).
But this does represent an unprecedented level of consistency for the English ace. She has been a bit naughty with the double-faults this tournament and she will need to iron out those issues as she takes on former World No.3 Paula Badosa.
The 26-year-old Spaniard Paula Badosa has endured her own litany of injury issues over the past few years. She was almost forced to retire due to the stress fracture she suffered during last year’s Wimbledon Championships.
But she seems determined to squeeze out as much tennis as possible and has actually compiled a pretty decent 2024 campaign. She advanced to the quarter-finals after Liudmila Samsonova was forced to withdraw after just one set of their round of 16 clash.
That victory improved her 2024 record to 18-13. She really impressed with a run to the fourth round at SW19 and she seems to have transferred some of that form into this week, calmly dispatching of Sofia Kenin in her opener. She will be glad for the easy win over Samsonova and should feel revitalized going into this glamour tie.
The Verdict: Badosa to win in straight sets 18/10
Raducanu actually leads their head-to-head 1-0, overcoming the Spaniard in straight sets when they met in a Bolton Challenger back in 2018. I think that Badosa has it in her to return the favour this week.
She is a brilliant returner and should be able to profit off any loose Raducanu service games. She hasn’t dropped a set this week and has looked somewhere near her aggressive best. She served well in both her matches and I think her more consistent delivery will see her through this tie.
3 August
Aryna Sabalenka 7/20 | Victoria Azarenka 43/20
How on earth did World No.3 Aryna Sabalenka survive that match? The big-hitting Belarusian returned to action this week after recovering from the shoulder issue that forced her to withdraw from Wimbledon.
But she looked extremely rusty in her opening match against Kamilla Rakhimova, landing only 50% of her first-serve points in a performance characterized by erratic serving: she served 13 aces and 14 double-faults in the match.
She is obviously still favouring that shoulder through rotation and it will be interesting to see how that serve progresses this week. Sabalenka hasn’t won a title since capturing her second successive Aussie Open crown and she knows that victory here will put her hot on the heels of World No.2 Coco Gauff (who obviously doesn’t get any ranking points at the Olympics).
Sabalenka is arguably the premier hardcourt player in women’s tennis and she will have learnt plenty from that tough assignment against Rakhimova.
Speaking of former World No.1 Belarusians returning from a shoulder injury, Victoria Azarenka managed to ninja her way into the quarterfinals courtesy of a schizophrenic win against Wang Yafan. Azarenka – who turned 35 on Wednesday – has actually enjoyed one of her most consistent seasons in ages.
This week marks her seventh quarterfinal appearance of the season (she has reached three semifinals but is yet to reach a final). Her best result of the season was an excellent semifinal finish at the WTA 1000 event in Miami.
Azarenka – regardless of age – is always one of the most dangerous players in the world on hardcourts. This was evident when she reached the Aussie Open semi-finals last season. She looked exceptional in the opening stages against Wang, bageling the hapless Chinese in a whirlwind first set. But her serve faltered in the second set and she slowly let Wang back into the contest.
She ultimately had too much firepower in the third, nullifying the Chinese baseliner with a series of powerful, flat groundstrokes.
The Verdict: Sabalenka to win in three sets 83/100
Sabalenka comfortably leads her compatriot 4-1 in their head-to-head meetings (winning the last three matches in straight sets). That really makes it pretty easy for me to back the World No.3.
However, her recent shoulder injury seemed to affect her serve against Rakhimova and I’m willing to go for value and opt for a three-set Sabalenka win.
