Jelena Ostapenko 29/20 | Paula Badosa 53/100
Jelena Ostapenko will be looking for a strong bounce-back after a tame first-round exit at the Paris Olympics. The Latvian has become a much more consistent player over the last two seasons, tempering her brand of all-out aggression with some stability.
She really started the season brilliantly, with titles in Adelaide and Linz underlining her new-found consistency.
She lost a little traction after that but bounced back with a solid quarterfinal run in Rome. She then produced another thrilling display at Wimbledon, reaching the quarterfinals for the third time in her last seven Grand Slam appearances.
I wasn’t surprised that she flopped in Paris. She has a dismal record at Roland Garros when you discount her maverick 2017 French Open victory. She has a dreadful 5-7 record in this event and she will need to address that as she comes up against the recently reinvigorated Paula Badosa.
I am so happy for Paula Badosa. The former World No.2 has suffered through a brutal array of injuries over the last few years. Last year she suffered a stress fracture of the back that actually threatened to bring a premature end to her career.
She returned to action at the beginning of the year but was forced to withdraw from a number of events due to recurring injury issues. There were signs of a resurgence on the grass courts, with a quarterfinal run at Bad Homburg followed by a respectable fourth-round finish at SW19. But few could have anticipated her title-winning performance in Washington.
Badosa seemed liberated last week, moving with the elegance and certainty that catapulted her to No.2 in the world. And she didn’t show any hangover effects in her opener, brushing aside Clara Tauson 6-1, 6-4 to extend her winning streak to six matches.
She had a rather meagre first-serve percentage of 45 against Tauson but still managed to win 83% of the ones that landed. That was a crucial weapon in Washington and it will be interesting to see how those percentages fluctuate.
The Verdict: Badosa to win in straight sets 23/20
The two share the head-to-head spoils at two wins apiece. Ostapenko won their most recent meeting, triumphing in three sets at last year’s Rome Masters.
But Badosa won in straight sets when they last met on a hardcourt (the 2022 Sydney Tennis Classic). Badosa just looks like a different player these past few weeks and Ostapenko has a really poor record in this event.
I can see the Latvian getting frustrated with the depth and consistency of Badosa’s groundstrokes.