PREVIEW: 2024 Men’s US Open Outright Preview

The US Open, originally known as the U.S. National Championships, dates all the way back to 1881, making it one of the oldest tennis championships in the world.

In fact, it is the only Grand Slam that has been played every year since its inception. It’s crazy to think that this event was previously played on both grass and clay.

It switched to hardcourts in 1978, when the tournament moved to its current home: the USTA National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows. I love the fact that every slam has its own particular flavour.

The US Open almost feels like a drunken response to the pomp and ceremony of the preceding Wimbledon Championships. With election fever starting to take hold in the United States, the already rambunctious New York atmosphere might even be a bit more elevated this year.

Players almost need to learn how to channel the energy of these energetic- and occasionally overly inebriated- crowds.

The Contenders

Defending champion Novak Djokovic will be riding high after claiming Olympic gold in Paris as he goes in search of that 25th Grand Slam title. He usually arrives in New York keen to add to his calendar Grand Slam haul but things have certainly changed in the men’s game.

Current World No.1 Jannik Sinner won his maiden slam at this year’s Aussie Open and he looks primed for a New York blitz following his victory in Cincinnati.

2022 champion Carlos Alcaraz will be looking to win his third consecutive slam and further cement his status as tennis’ great entertainer.

2020 runner-up Alex Zverev has been on the cusp of a Grand Slam breakthrough this season and this could represent his best chance of finally breaking that duck.

2021 champ Daniil Medvedev always manages to summon his best tennis in the hardcourt slams and it will be interesting to see how he fares after some ignominious early exits in recent weeks.

Past Champions

• 2023: Novak Djokovic bt Daniil Medvedev (6-3, 7-6, 6-3)
• 2022: Carlos Alcaraz bt Casper Rudd (6-4, 2-6, 7-6, 6-3)
• 2021: Daniil Medvedev bt Novak Djokovic (6-4, 6-4, 6-4)
• 2020: Dominic Thiem by Alex Zverev (2-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 7-6)
• 2019: Rafael Nadal bt Danil Medvedev (7-5, 6-3, 5-7, 6-3, 7-6)
• 2018: Novak Djokovic bt Juan Martin del Potro (6-3, 7-6, 6-3)

North American hardcourt precursors this season

• Atlanta Open: Yoshihito Nishioka bt Jordan Thompson (4-6, 7-6, 6-2)
• Washington Open: Sebastian Korda bt Flavio Cobolli (4-6, 6-2, 6-0)
• Canadian Open: Alexei Popyrin bt Andrey Rublev (6-2, 6-4)
• Cincinnati Open: Jannik Sinner bt Frances Tiafoe (7-6, 6-2)
• Winston-Salem Open: in progress

The Big Three: Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz

Jannik Sinner

This has been a really surreal campaign for current World No.1 Jannik Sinner. He has a stunning 48-5 record this season, winning five titles including that maiden Grand Slam triumph in Melbourne.

He rose to the top of the world rankings and only solidified that with his exceptional victory in Cincinnati. But why does it feel like he has the most to prove this fortnight? It almost feels as if he is playing to legitimize his new World No.1 ranking.

Sinner has only reached the quarterfinals here once in five attempts, memorably going out to Alcaraz in 2022 in what could be the greatest tennis match of the last five years. He looked refreshed in Cincinnati and those fast surfaces do correlate well with Flushing Meadows.

But I just think that this championship might be beyond him. It’s probably the most physically demanding slam to win, coming at the end of a gruelling season and generally played in sweltering conditions.

Sinner’s conditioning has been an issue in his young career and that could prove decisive this year.

Novak Djokovic

Defending champion Novak Djokovic will have a major point to prove this week. Emboldened by his Olympic triumph, the Serbian will be keen to reassert his Grand Slam dominance.

He hasn’t struck a ball in earnest since Paris and he should be feeling completely refreshed by the start of the tournament. But let’s not forget his struggles in the early portion of the season. Olympics aside, Djokovic hasn’t won another tournament all year.

He described his semifinal loss to Sinner in the Aussie Open as one of the worst Grand Slam performances of his career. He had to withdraw from the French due to injury and he lost his 2nd successive Wimbledon final to Carlos Alcaraz.

So, I think it’s fair to say that his aura of invincibility has dissipated to some extent. Still, he seems to be peaking towards the latter portion of this season and it’s hard to envisage him not being a factor in this year’s outcome.

Carlos Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz has really become the new king of Grand Slam tennis, winning four of the last seven Grand Slams dating back to his herculean run to the 2022 US Open title.

That 2022 US Open title run was one of the most iconic runs in recent Grand Slam memory. The entire tournament was virtually a highlight reel and it forever endeared him to the New York faithful.

He has grown in stature since then, becoming the youngest man to win the so-called Surface Slam when he won this year’s French Open. He will be looking to make it a hat-trick of Grand Slam titles this week but he has run into some issues of late.

He lost in straight sets to Djokovic in the Olympic gold medal match and he is fresh off arguably his worst result of the season, losing in his Cincinnati opener to veteran Frenchman Gael Monfils.

But something just changes when Alcaraz steps over the line in Grand Slam tennis (almost like Brooks Koepka in Major Championship golf). I think he will be right in the reckoning again this year.

Top Ten Contenders – Alex Zverev and Daniil Medvedev

I know, not exactly the most imaginative option backing the 4th and 5th seeds as my other top ten contenders. But I just can’t see a realistic title charge coming from any of the other five players.

Alex Zverev

Andrey Rublev finished runner-up in Montreal but his perennial Grand Slam failures are impossible to ignore. Hubert Hurkacz is recovering from a torn meniscus and he hasn’t won a hardcourt title all year.

Casper Rudd finished runner-up here in 2022 but he has never gone beyond the 2nd round on any previous occasion (and he arrives in pretty dire form). Dimitrov has tapered off considerably of late and it’s too much to expect him to go deep this year.

And I still think that Alex di Minaur- despite his success this season- lacks the signature weapon necessary for success in this event.

It’s surely just a matter of time till Zverev breaks through at Grand Slam level. The German has been a bastion of consistency this season, compiling a 52-16 record for the year.

More importantly, he has looked brilliant at Grand Slam level all year. He somehow conspired to throw away a two-set lead against Jannik Sinner in the Aussie Open semifinals. He then lost a topsy-turvy French Open final against eventual champ Carlos Alcaraz.

A runner-up here in 2020, Zverev has reached the quarterfinal stage or better in each of his last three appearances here. He is fresh off a semifinal run in Cincinnati and is perfectly primed for success. His serve has been colossal all season and that will be a key weapon for him this year.

Daniil Medvedev

My next pick has to be Daniil Medvedev. The Russian actually comes into this tournament in uncharacteristically poor form, losing both of his opening-round matches during the North American precursors.

But Medvedev is one of those players who thrives in five-set tennis. The 2021 US Open finalist became a six-time Grand Slam finalist at this year’s Aussie Open. All six of his Grand Slam finals have come on hardcourts (three of which coming in Arthur Ashe Stadium).

He is a true specialist here, reaching the semifinal stage or better in four of his last five appearances. He lost comfortably to Djokovic in last year’s final but he was memorably the man who prevented Djokovic from winning the Calendar Slam back in 2021.

My Mid-tier Choices – Sebastian Korda and Frances Tiafoe

America have more seeded players than any other country this year and I’m opting for a pair of them in my mid-tier selections. 2023 semifinalist Ben Shelton has looked solid in recent weeks, reaching the semifinals in Washington before a narrow quarterfinal loss to Zverev in Cincinnati.

Sebastian Korda

But he does become a tad one-dimensional at times and for that reason, I think I will back Seb Korda this week. A member of the esteemed Korda sporting dynasty, Seb Korda has really come into his own in recent weeks, winning the biggest title of his career in Washington before upsetting Zverev en route to a semifinal berth in Montreal.

Korda has a slightly more multifaceted game than Shelton and I think he could be an American breakout star this year.

Frances Tiafoe

I had a feeling that 2022 US Open semifinalist Frances Tiafoe would get his act together ahead of this year’s US Open. Tiafoe, by his own admission, has been underwhelming this season.

He went into last year’s Wimbledon ranked inside the top ten and he plummeted to around 30 in the rankings earlier this year. He seemed far too lackadaisical and impatient.

But he has suddenly burst back into life on these brisk North American hardcourts, reaching the semifinals in Washington before an excellent runner-up finish in Cincinnati. Those Cincinnato courts are lightning-fast and offer a good barometer for possible success at Flushing Meadows.

Longshot Options – Jack Draper and Alexei Popyrin

Jack Draper

My first longshot option has to be current bad boy of tennis Jack Draper. The British lefty was involved in some delicious controversy at the recent Cincinnati Masters.

Serving for the match in his round of 16 clash with Felix Auger Aliassime, Draper appeared to hit a volley directly into the ground before it meekly snuck over the net. The chair umpire erroneously ruled it a legitimate winner and the Canadian was forced to accept the decision.

I find it hard to believe that Draper didn’t know what had happened given the behaviour of the ball (you could also tell by that sheepish expression on his face). Be that as it may, Draper reached the 4th round here last season and his quarterfinal run on those slick Cincinnati courts leads me to believe that he could be dangerous in this draw.

He won his first event in Stuttgart earlier this year and this could be his Ben Shelton-esque breakthrough week.

Alexei Popyrin

I recently lamented the fact that Aussie Alexei Popyrin hadn’t won more in his tennis career. The Aussie seems to me to be the complete package, blending raw power with brilliant touch and excellent physicality.

But he has struggled with consistency throughout his entire career. But he somehow managed to ignite every aspect of his game at this year’s Montreal Masters, upsetting five top-20 players to become the 4th lowest-ranked Masters Champion in history.

He was eliminated early in Cincinnati but I just can’t ignore the brilliance of that run.