The US Open continues as Emma Navarro faces Marta Kostyuk while Madison Keys goes up against Elise Mertens in the third round. Damien Kayat previews.
Emma Navarro 61/100 | Marta Kostyuk 5/4
This should be a tense 3rd round match between two of this year’s most consistent players. Emma Navarro has cruised through her first two matches, curiously winning all four sets 6-1.
The 23-year-old- who was actually born in New York City- has enjoyed a wonderfully assured campaign (on all surfaces). She won her maiden WTA Tour title in Hobart and has reached five further semifinals.
Two of those came in her last three events (in Toronto and Monterrey). Navarro has also shown incremental improvement in the slams, reaching the 3rd round in Melbourne, the 4th in Paris and the quarters at Wimbledon (which was her first Grand Slam quarterfinal appearance).
Navarro is a wonderfully multi-faceted player. She doesn’t have Sabelenka-power at her disposal, instead relying on accurate groundstrokes and real variety.
She has a magnificent drop-shot and loves incorporating slices in her game. Her Wimbledon win over Gauff highlighted her tactical nous, as she constantly peppered Gauff’s weaker forehand wing.
Marta Kostyuk has also been a true breakout star this season, rising into the top 20 in the world rankings courtesy of some eye-catching performances.
She crucially reached a maiden Grand Slam quarterfinal at the Aussie Open (which bodes well for this hardcourt slam). And she just went from strength to strength on hardcourts, finishing runner-up in San Diego and reaching the Indian Wells semifinals.
She reached a clay-court final in Stuttgart but then her season started to wane. She looked decent in the North American hardcourt precursors, reaching the round of 16 in Toronto and Cincinnati. And she has looked completely comfortable in New York, winning both of her matches in straight sets.
She served particularly well in her 2nd round win over Harriet Dart, winning 83% of her first-serve points (which is pretty crazy in women’s tennis). Kostyuk is a magnificent athlete and an inventive shot-maker. And she might also have revenge on her mind.
The Verdict: Navarro to win in straight sets 5/4
Navarro won their only previous meeting, beating the Ukrainian in Toronto a few weeks back. And I personally feel that these surfaces suit Navarro even more.
They are quicker, meaning that Kostyuk won’t be able to retrieve as many balls. Navarro is playing like a woman possessed this week and she should win handily.
Madison Keys 39/100 | Elise Mertens 39/20
World No.14 Madison Keys – who reached the semifinals here last season- has had an absolute rollercoaster of a season. She missed the Aussie Open due to injury and only made her 2024 debut at Indian Wells.
Her season burst into life on the clay, where she reached the semis in Madrid before winning the Strasbourg title. She suffered Grand Slam heartbreak at SW19, having to retire deep into her round of 16 clash with Jasmine Paolini (who would go on to finish runner-up to Krejcikova).
And that leg injury seemed to leave some residual damage, as she was forced to withdraw from Toronto with a similar leg issue. But the Illinois native has looked all business in New York, beating Siniakova and Joint in comfortable straight-sets wins.
She was incredibly efficient in her 2nd round win against Texas freshman Maya Joint, winning an impressive 76% of her first-serve points. Keys is a three-time semifinalist here (finishing runner-up in 2017). That one-two punch of big serve, and big forehand is a perfect recipe for success on these surfaces.
28-year-old Belgian Elise Mertens has enjoyed a pretty average singles campaign. The defensive baseliner reached her 3rd career Hobart final towards the start of the year (where she would lose to Emma Navarro). She then enjoyed further doubles success, winning the Aussie Open doubles title playing alongside Hsieh Su-wei.
But her singles form has been quite sedate since that early Hobart showing. But she did show a glimpse of her hardcourt prowess in Toronto, beating Volynets and Osaka en route to a round-of-16 finish.
And she negotiated a tricky few matches this week, grinding down Kudermetova in her opener before a more comprehensive win over Tomljanovic. It’s little wonder she looks comfy out there: she reached back-to-back quarters here in 2019 and 2020.
Mertens likes to hit the ball flat and her defensive capabilities are off the chart. She could prove to be an interesting challenge to Keys.
The Verdict: Keys to win in three 3/1
The American leads the head-to-head 3-1. However, it was Mertens who emerged victorious in their last meeting, beating Keys in three sets at last year’s Cincinnati Open.
This should be an entertaining cat-and-mouse game. Keys will look to take the initiative and dominate on her forehand wing. But Mertens’ elite defensive abilities could force Keys into going for a little too much. Still, I believe Keys’ Grand Slam know-how should see her over the line.
